Could the D20/OGL end up hurting WoTC?

[Keeper of Secrets]

Ugh. This conversation seems to come up every few months. We really need to start saving these threads, making them a sticky and just send people there. I really think just about every question and answer on this topic has been addressed at one point or another.

 

[Desdichado]

Ugh. This conversation seems to come up every few months. We really need to start saving these threads, making them a sticky and just send people there. I really think just about every question and answer on this topic has been addressed at one point or another.

Huh. I don't remember seeing it, and I don't think anyone would argue that I don't hang around here a fair amount. Maybe I've just missed them in the past.

 

[Henry]

Ugh. This conversation seems to come up every few months. We really need to start saving these threads, making them a sticky and just send people there. I really think just about every question and answer on this topic has been addressed at one point or another.

Not to worry - it keeps our skills fresh. Plus, not everyone is around when these questions are asked - it's only forum-jockeys like us that hear the question often.

 

[Crothian]

Not to worry - it keeps our skills fresh. Plus, not everyone is around when these questions are asked - it's only forum-jockeys like us that hear the question often.

And the next time the subject comes up we who have read the threads beiofre can spout of knowledge gained in those threads; and thus sound like we know what we are talking about!!

 

[Garnfellow]

The only scenario I could imagine where the OGL could ever hurt Wizards would require a perfect storm of rather unlikely events: (a) If WotC released a buggy, unwieldy, and closed 4th edition that somehow crippled popular aspects of the game -- no elves or wizards or dungeons, but lots of psionic-wielding vampiric tinker gnomes with flintlocks in a gritty planar city setting; (b) and if, in response, several big d20 publishers banded together to publish a "free alliance fantasy RPG" that substantially improved, expanded, and codified the 3rd edition ruleset; then (c) maybe, just maybe, enough people would go with this free alliance game that WotC saw a hit in sales. And even then, I don't think it would be a substantial hit. Folks will follow the D&D brand even into Mordor, if only to complete their collections.

But I really couldn't see WotC being so short-sighted and ham-handed to badly botch 4th edition. And sadly, I really couldn't see enough cooperation between d20 publishers to create a serious alternative.

 

[Sigurd]

I think they have benefitted hugely

The OGL has been a powerful lever to move secondary publications towards Dungeons and Dragons. I go into the Chapters near me and I have to special order anything that is not D20 or WOTC. How many gamers buy a book they can't flip through first?

My own personal opinion is that non WOTC publications are far more interesting. All that talent and creativity has been sucked into supporting WOTC when it otherwise might have gone into competing game systems. The dominance seems to me self perpetuating because it's simply easier to write for the established expectations and skills of game buyers.

I think the real task for WOTC is to show genuine leadership. People have to feel that a new set of rules is really better before they will embrace a new generation of publications. The core books are slightly insolated from this because people buy the books to consider the rules. I know many gamers who still reject 3.5. I wonder how many publishers were caught flat footed by the 3.5 publication? If WOTC looses its way it won't be because of the OGL it will be because they failed to produce. They have too big a hold on economies of scale and distribution channels for me to feel very sorry for them if they blow it.

I hope there's enough business for everyone but I have a special place for the smaller publishers. Makes me want to remind people that they advertise for WOTC not the other way around.

S

 

[kigmatzomat]

One thing to realize about WotC and the OGL is that it has done a *lot* for the bottom line. WotC ran into an economy of scale problem with certain supplements, notably modules. Modules had to be inexpensive, so low margins compared to books. They still had to have a fairly good sized print run and they had to be creative. Creative means they can be a flop and warehousing a WotC-class print run on an already low-revenue product results in sizable losses.

OGL was a number of things from WotC; a break from the lawyer-happy TSR days, a poison pill to prevent future owners from destroying the game (*cough*Hasbro*cough*), and a way to focus only on the truly financially lucrative products. They even divorced themselves of Dragon & Dungeon so they have it down to as profitable a business model any RPG company could dream of.

Folks like PhilReed and SKR have much smaller print runs, release PDFs, etc to lower inventory concerns and are small enough that the "too low for WotC" margins are acceptable. Why can't they make WotC-money? Economies of scale work to WotC's advantage; the discount on printing costs is immense when you start adding zeros to the size of the print run. Second, until they have the same wide-market recognition a lot of their buyers will be "taking a chance" on them so they can't cost morethan if WotC had sold the product even though it costs more to produce.

The only thing about the WotC that hurts WotC is that now they are competing against themselves because they cannot kill the 3.x game system simply by refusing to print more copies. 4th ed will be a significant improvement to AD&D or it will compete against 3rd ed sold by other people. If it sucks too much people can simply ignore it.

They won't, of course. But they could, secure in the knowledge the SRD and d20 supplements will be available from other sources.

 

[EricNoah]

My guess (only a guess) is that the vast majority of those buying OGL games like, say, AU or M&M or C&C, have already been WotC's customer (they bought "the book" that all other books are meant to drive, the PHB, at some point). Buying another game, then, doesn't really hurt WotC, and it could help them by keeping you in the d20 system "network" - perhaps a future WotC product will find its way into your OGL game in some fashion.

My other guess is that the assumption that PHB sales might be "flat" is probably incorrect -- even at the end of 2E's reign, I seem to recall reading that 2E PHB sales were still very strong and in fact increasing.

Guessing is fun, isn't it?

 

[Pramas]

I'd be shocked if WotC's business people paid any mind to what other RPG companies do. There's such a tremendous difference in scale between WotC and everyone else in this industry that the idea of competition is almost ludicrous.

If you look at it as WotC vs. any one competitor, yes. I'm sure no one at WotC loses sleep over what Green Ronin might do in 2005, for example. I think it's an entirely different picture when you look at the d20 market in aggregate. Every d20 product ever released is competition for WotC's D&D dollars. Every one says, "Hey, if you like D&D, check me out." Over the past four and a half years, literally thousands of d20 publications have been released. I simply don't believe that the money spent on these products appeared from the Ether. It came from somewhere and one of the biggest places it came from is D&D. Now sure, a few folks may have been brought in here or there by a cool setting or a license or somesuch, but by and large it's D&D players who buy d20 stuff.

I remember one distributor mentioning a couple of years back that in one three month period, there were as many d20 releases as all the products released for the life of 1st Edition AD&D. Now granted, things have cooled out in past year. A lot of companies have dropped out or scaled back, so it's not quite the same as the frenzied years. Nonetheless, I think it's undeniable that d20 as a whole has had an effect on D&D's bottom line. So does WotC care that GR released the Black Company? Probably not. But it should care that Black Company, Hamunaptra, Midnight, Scarred Lands, Warcraft, Diamond Throne, Iron Kingdoms, etc. are all out there and all offering viable alternatives to WotC's own material.

 

[Keeper of Secrets]

Huh. I don't remember seeing it, and I don't think anyone would argue that I don't hang around here a fair amount. Maybe I've just missed them in the past.

Hmmm. Maybe the conversation has come up less than I thought but it seems like I have seen this over and over and over again. Of course, there is also the distinct possibility I am losing my mind and suffering from some kind of Groundhog Day thing . . .