Could the D20/OGL end up hurting WoTC?

[Mercule]

The only thing about the WotC that hurts WotC is that now they are competing against themselves because they cannot kill the 3.x game system simply by refusing to print more copies. 4th ed will be a significant improvement to AD&D or it will compete against 3rd ed sold by other people. If it sucks too much people can simply ignore it.

I, honestly, don't think this is an issue. I'd wager that the people who frequent boards like this one are the most likely to use the OGL rather than buy the book. How many of us are still using 3.0E rather than 3.5E? Some, sure. Some people are still using 1E or 2E, and I'm sure Diaglo's not alone.

Really, though, the vast majority of people moved to 3.5, as did publishers. 3.5 was a very minor update, too. If it sold, then 4E will sell, regardless of how much of an upgrade it is. Personally, I expect the change from 3.x to 4E to be the equivalent of 1E to 2E -- which is to say close enough that you can reasonably include material for either in the same campaign.

 

[Tav_Behemoth]

Last time we had this conversation, Chris mentioned that he was looking forward to picking Charles' brain about the D&D sales figures at the Wizards holiday party. Did anything come of that that you're able to share?

 

[Psion]

Really, though, the vast majority of people moved to 3.5, as did publishers. 3.5 was a very minor update, too. If it sold, then 4E will sell, regardless of how much of an upgrade it is. Personally, I expect the change from 3.x to 4E to be the equivalent of 1E to 2E -- which is to say close enough that you can reasonably include material for either in the same campaign.

I think that the shift between 3.0 and 3.5 was fairly minor, but a lot of people playing 3.5 won't touch 3.0 material if it's not updated.

 

[ptolemy18]

His post actually said that this has been the best year for D&D ever, and subsequently clarified that this was for the RPG line alone, not including miniatures, novels, computer game licenses, etc.

Hmm... I guess that means that 3.5 is doing well, then. And that RPGs by themselves are doing well, without ancillary merchandise! That's cool.

Although on the other hand, P.R. people are rarely known for posting on forums going "OH MY GOD!!! SALES HAVE FLATTENED! THE COMPANY IS DOOMED!!!"

Jason

 

[ptolemy18]

Really, though, the vast majority of people moved to 3.5, as did publishers. 3.5 was a very minor update, too. If it sold, then 4E will sell, regardless of how much of an upgrade it is. Personally, I expect the change from 3.x to 4E to be the equivalent of 1E to 2E -- which is to say close enough that you can reasonably include material for either in the same campaign.

I hope for the love of God that they don't release 4th ed. for... say... another TEN YEARS. I really resented having to pick up 3.5, and I don't like most of the changes -- which mostly overemphasize game balance and need-to-sell-miniatures, I think.

Jason

 

[Rasyr]

If you look at it as WotC vs. any one competitor, yes. I'm sure no one at WotC loses sleep over what Green Ronin might do in 2005, for example. I think it's an entirely different picture when you look at the d20 market in aggregate. Every d20 product ever released is competition for WotC's D&D dollars. Every one says, "Hey, if you like D&D, check me out." Over the past four and a half years, literally thousands of d20 publications have been released. I simply don't believe that the money spent on these products appeared from the Ether. It came from somewhere and one of the biggest places it came from is D&D. Now sure, a few folks may have been brought in here or there by a cool setting or a license or somesuch, but by and large it's D&D players who buy d20 stuff.

I remember one distributor mentioning a couple of years back that in one three month period, there were as many d20 releases as all the products released for the life of 1st Edition AD&D. Now granted, things have cooled out in past year. A lot of companies have dropped out or scaled back, so it's not quite the same as the frenzied years. Nonetheless, I think it's undeniable that d20 as a whole has had an effect on D&D's bottom line. So does WotC care that GR released the Black Company? Probably not. But it should care that Black Company, Hamunaptra, Midnight, Scarred Lands, Warcraft, Diamond Throne, Iron Kingdoms, etc. are all out there and all offering viable alternatives to WotC's own material.

You sir, are my hero! You explained the reasoning behind my earlier comments in a much much better way than I could have possibly done. Thank you.

 

[ptolemy18]

I hope for the love of God that they don't release 4th ed. for... say... another TEN YEARS. I really resented having to pick up 3.5, and I don't like most of the changes -- which mostly overemphasize game balance and need-to-sell-miniatures, I think.

To clarify -- I'm not saying I "hate" WotC or anything. D&D 3.whatever is still a great game system. But I do like it less than 3.0.

Jason

 

[Mercule]

I hope for the love of God that they don't release 4th ed. for... say... another TEN YEARS. I really resented having to pick up 3.5, and I don't like most of the changes -- which mostly overemphasize game balance and need-to-sell-miniatures, I think.

I never meant to imply or lend support to 4E comming out soon. I was just responding to a statement.

As for my preferrence of editions, I much prefer 3.5 to 3.0. Many of the changes either institutionalized my own house rules (the DR rules) or improved on areas that were, IMO, very weak (3.0 Ranger was so bad that I'd banned it from my games, despite loving the archetype).

 

[der_kluge]

Pramas said:

Nonetheless, I think it's undeniable that d20 as a whole has had an effect on D&D's bottom line. So does WotC care that GR released the Black Company? Probably not. But it should care that Black Company, Hamunaptra, Midnight, Scarred Lands, Warcraft, Diamond Throne, Iron Kingdoms, etc. are all out there and all offering viable alternatives to WotC's own material.

That's all I'm saying!

Yes, I know these threads have come up in the past, and I believe they are more true now than they were then. I'm constantly reading about people and their AU campaign, their Grim Tales campaign, or some other non-WoTC campaign.

Anyone who has taken basic Marketing 101 knows that there are only so many gaming dollars from the typical gamer to go around in a given month. So, if I have $50 to spend on gaming materials in January, and $25 of that goes to Grim Tales, and another $25 of that goes to Races of Stone (just making up costs here), then that's $25 that WoTC didn't get, but which was made possible through the use of their d20 license.

And yes, it may be a small amount on an individual d20 product level, but added up in total, all the Green Ronin's, Sword & Sorcery Studios, Malhavoc Presses, and others of the world in sum have to have some effect on WoTC's bottom line.

It's impossible not to.

 

[Ankh-Morpork Guard]

So, if I have $50 to spend on gaming materials in January, and $25 of that goes to Grim Tales, and another $25 of that goes to Races of Stone (just making up costs here), then that's $25 that WoTC didn't get, but which was made possible through the use of their d20 license.

A good point, but that brings up a question. Does WotC actually benefit from YOU buying a book? I seem to remember something about them actually getting thier money from distributors, not us lowly consumers.