Could the D20/OGL end up hurting WoTC?

[jmucchiello]

I can't believe I'm arguing this with Mr. Pramas....

Some would claim any lost revenue is made up in sales of core books to these fans. I doubt it. People who buy d20 books probably have the core books already.

No, it's not the person who purchases the d20 book who will buy more core books, it's all the people he pulls into gaming who would not have gamed except that he bought a niche product WotC never would have produced. That new person would never have bought any RPG materials except that he was lured in by a niche WotC can't afford to serve. That new person will eventually be sucked into a D&D game and will eventually by a PHB.** That is the Skaff Efffect according to Dancey's article I quoted above. I suppose you didn't agree this conjecture. It's not the sale of the 3rd party book that sells core books. It's the attaction to RPGs through niche products that sells core books.

** Of odd consequence is the idea here that the new guy also isn't buying your book, that was bought by the existing gamer.

 

[mearls]

I think the huge number of d20 products has cost WotC sales. Some percentage of their previously captive audience suddenly had a lot more options. Now maybe that only meant each D&D sourcebook sold 5,000 or 10,000 units less than it might have, but that adds up quickly. Furthermore, the money lost was the gravy, the pure profit after all a book's costs have been recouped. Some would claim any lost revenue is made up in sales of core books to these fans. I doubt it. People who buy d20 books probably have the core books already. That's also why this isn't a two way street. Maybe a handful of people bought WotC's psionics rules so they could play in our Mindshadows setting, but lots of psionics fans bought Mindshadows instead of WotC's new release the month it came out.

First of all, D&D has never enjoyed a captive audience. There's always been other games that people can choose from.

That said, none of your argument makes any sense. In the real world, people simply don't operate that way. RPGs are not a necessity. There are no binary choices here - if a gamer buys product X, that doesn't mean he will never buy product Y. RPG products are pure luxuries.

If we applied this logic to other forms of entertainment - books, movies, DVDs, it falls apart. Only a lunatic would say that everyone who went to see The Incredibles will never see any of the other movies that were playing at the theater that night. The same thing applies to DVDs, books, whatever. What is so magical about RPGs? I'm honestly curious.

Besides - let's say there is competition. I'm curious why those factors I listed are irrelevent. Does that mean that promotion, advertising, quality design, color interiors, high-quality artwork, and so forth have no bearing on a book's sales? How could a d20 publisher ever compete with WotC?

By your logic, every sale that goes to WotC is one lost to d20 companies. Given all those factors in WotC's favor, and only a fool would label them irrelevent, how can a d20 company ever hope to draw someone away from WotC? Given that d20 companies have lower quality artwork, softcovers, black and white interiors, and lower quality design (poorer paid writers, no full-time editors, no developers), why would anyone buy a d20 book? From what you seem to think, someone who buys a d20 book also decides to NOT buy a WotC one. Surely that works in both directions.

-->Competition between RPG publishers is pure myth.
This is so profoundly ridiculous, I don't know where to begin.

If you want to set up a competition between publishers, and keep score or whatever in your head, go ahead. Whatever makes you happy.

 

[Rasyr]

No, it's not the person who purchases the d20 book who will buy more core books, it's all the people he pulls into gaming who would not have gamed except that he bought a niche product WotC never would have produced. That new person would never have bought any RPG materials except that he was lured in by a niche WotC can't afford to serve. That new person will eventually be sucked into a D&D game and will eventually by a PHB.** That is the Skaff Efffect according to Dancey's article I quoted above. I suppose you didn't agree this conjecture. It's not the sale of the 3rd party book that sells core books. It's the attaction to RPGs through niche products that sells core books.

** Of odd consequence is the idea here that the new guy also isn't buying your book, that was bought by the existing gamer.

Except that there is an error in your logic as well. If there were no alternatives to the PHB, then sure, he would eventually buy the PHB. However, there are more than one version of the PHB, put out by other companies, plus the SRD online, so that there are options OTHER than the PHB, and those options cost less.

Thus there is no guarantee that this new player will select the most expensive version (WotC's version) to purchase. Any of the OGL player handbooks (like the one put out by Mongoose) can just about fully replace the PHB for the new player.

It is exactly those products (pure OGL products which do not require the PHB) which do damage WotC's bottom line. Dancey once stated that the purpose of the OGL and the d20 STL was to drive sales of the core books from WotC. With alternatives published that can be used in their place, that kinda puts a crimp in that goal.

Heck, Mongoose's entire "OGL" line of products is their way of hedging their bets in case 4.0 is not OGL. With those books, they can stay at the 3.5 level indefinitely, and that positions them to take a good chunk of D&D players who get upset when 4.0 finally does get released. In fact, their prolific production of product is geared for this as well. New Edition of D&D? Who needs it! Mongoose has books on every topic imaginable so that you do not have to upgrade to a new version. At least that is what their strategy appears to be to me. It seems that they are kinda counting on a new version to be released soon.... hehe

 

[mearls]

Gamers are not the ones who have to worry about, the publishers are. It would be sheer folly for publishers to ignore the possibility, especially when they are seeing various signs, and hearing rumors from people within WotC in some cases, to the effect that it is coming, and no too far away.

I think most major d20 publishers will be in good shape for a non-open 4e. I can't think of any company that either doesn't have a successful OGL/d20 RPG (Spycraft, Mutants & Masterminds), or successful licensed games (Conan).

4e would have to be stupendously good for d20 publishers to lose their customer bases. Remember, 3e was priced at $20 to help get as many 2e players to upgrade as quickly as possible. The pressure on d20 publishers to produce quality work also pushes on WotC. From what I've seen, WotC gets hit just as hard for releasing a dud as a d20 company.

 

[mearls]

Thus there is no guarantee that this new player will select the most expensive version (WotC's version) to purchase. Any of the OGL player handbooks (like the one put out by Mongoose) can just about fully replace the PHB for the new player.

For all the reasons I mentioned a few posts back (retail penetration, marketing, etc), the overwhelming likelihood is that a new player buys a D&D book. RPGs are a luxury item - people are willing to pay extra money for color art, a hardcover, quality illustrations, and so on. Chances are, the new D&D player will buy his gaming material from a bookstore or a hobby store that doesn't even have the OGL alternatives in stock.

 

[kenobi65]

Except that there is an error in your logic as well. If there were no alternatives to the PHB, then sure, he would eventually buy the PHB. However, there are more than one version of the PHB, put out by other companies, plus the SRD online, so that there are options OTHER than the PHB, and those options cost less.

Thus there is no guarantee that this new player will select the most expensive version (WotC's version) to purchase. Any of the OGL player handbooks (like the one put out by Mongoose) can just about fully replace the PHB for the new player.

And yet, the D&D PHB outsells all of those OGL alternatives by a huge amount. Distribution's undoubtedly got a fair amount to do with it, as well as the fact that only the WotC version says "Dungeons and Dragons" right on it.

WotC undoubtedly loses some sales to the OGL publishers...but, on the whole, interest in RPGs is bigger now than it was before 3E came out, and, as Mr. Ryan has been quoted, D&D is doing just fine.

As for the question about whether d20 has led me to buy more -- hell yes. My RPG purchases had probably dropped to under $100 a year in the late 90s. These days, it's probably $100 some *months*...not all of it from WotC, but the majority.

 

[Psion]

RPGs aren't a necessity. There isn't a finite pie of money that people have to spend on them. Instead, I believe that the amount of money people spend on them is determined solely by the quality they see available on the market place. They're a pure luxury that people throw their disposable income at. They're like DVDs, or paperbacks. If I want to buy Die Hard and Predator on DVD, but I can only afford Die Hard that day, it's not like I'm never going to buy Predator.

I think in some ways, some RPG products ARE more vulnerable to competition than DVD movies.

Let's take adventures. These days, adventures less than 96 pages are hard to find. And most adventures or those size will keep you busy for several months of weekly sessions. This isn't like a movie you can pop in and watch in a night. You can only get use out of so many adventures.

Similarly, many companies field similar items. Some will sink in enough cash to buy multiple versions of the same item. But for some people, just one of (for example) R&R Olympus, Trojan War, and/or the Argonauts will do. Just one of Wilds or Wildscape will do. And so on.

 

[Psion]

WotC undoubtedly loses some sales to the OGL publishers...

Although I can't help but see some supplement sales being pulled away, I have seen no compelling evidence that this is not outweighed by the Skaff effect.

Additionally, some of the sales that WotC is "losing" are sales that, apparently, they don't want. It's not profitable for a large company like WotC to print a book that would sell 5000 or less copies, something that would be great sales number for much smaller companies.

 

[Rasyr]

For all the reasons I mentioned a few posts back (retail penetration, marketing, etc), the overwhelming likelihood is that a new player buys a D&D book. RPGs are a luxury item - people are willing to pay extra money for color art, a hardcover, quality illustrations, and so on. Chances are, the new D&D player will buy his gaming material from a bookstore or a hobby store that doesn't even have the OGL alternatives in stock.

Well, I would not say overwhelming.... While it is likely that a new gamer will get a WOtC PHB, it is not a sure thing. That is what I was trying to point out.

Yes, RPGs are luxury items, and gamers do have a reputation for being somewhat stingy.

4e would have to be stupendously good for d20 publishers to lose their customer bases. Remember, 3e was priced at $20 to help get as many 2e players to upgrade as quickly as possible.

Not the way I see it. WotC could just as easily do the same thing via pricing to garner in those players and get them to upgrade. Too many will do it without thinking twice. Many others will no doubt complain and hem and haw for a little while and then upgrade. It will be relatively small minority of D&D players who do not upgrade. At least that is my opinion of it.

Somebody mentioned that the first run of 3.0 PHBs was about half a million copies. Most third party publishers do runs of 10k or less. This basically places them back in the same boat as any publisher who has not gone the way of d20.

IF, and I repeat, IF 4.0 is not OGL, guess what is going to happen? the d20 logo will be applied to 4.0 and all those third party products carrying the logo will have their d20 STL pulled, and be required to destroy those products (the destruction option is up to WotC, not the individual publisher). That alone will seriously hurt, if not outright kill, many d20 companies. Shoot, this is what happened with the move from 3.0 to 3.5, and 3.5 was released as OGL. Too many companies could not afford to update everything and ended up going down.

Yes, this is all speculation on my part, but it is also something that I do think will happen if 4.0 is not released via OGL.....

And as to your comment about competition between rpg companies being a myth, sorry but I have to agree with Pramas on that one.

WotC already has a long history of moving release dates for card games and CCG expansions to the detriment of competitors. And I think that same mentality was part of the reason why 3.5 came out 2 years before originally scheduled. Think about it for a sec. Malhavoc announces its alternative PHB (the first such to be announced) and what happens? Shortly afterward 3.5 is announced. Malhavoc is told there are no issues about using the name Arcana Unearthed, and shortly afterwards Unearthed Arcana is announced (the gap between the two long enough for UA to actually be written). Valterra announces his controversial book, and boom! the d20 license gets changed before he can publish.

The point is that some of WotC's actions do appear to be based upon the actions of its competitors. Thus while WotC may be in a class all by itself (through sheer volume), it does consider other companies competitors. I'd almost be willing to bet that even though Dancey pointed out to people that yes, they could print the entire SRD, that it was doubted that anybody would ever do it. He has already said that the sheer number of people publishing via the OGL and d20 STL surprised the heck out of them, that the number was greater, by an order of magnitude, than was originally projected.

That last bit (order of magnitude) is enough to think that the OGL is adversely affecting WotC's bottom line, and I know for a fact that Hasbro, WotC's parent, cares very very deeply about that bottom line. I had a friend who worked sales at WotC. He was given the very worst sales area. He made large increases in the sales in his area, much greater than previous salesmen who had that area, and you know what happened to him? He lost his job because he did not meet the sales quota, which was the same for every area. His sales increased every month, and were always higher than the sales for that area before it was assigned to him, and yet he still lost his job. Bottom Line. That is what it all boils down to.

Does the OGL hurt WotC's bottom line? Yes, it does. This may only be a tiny drop in the bucket to them, but it still affects the bottom line.

 

[Mark]

Does the OGL hurt WotC's bottom line? Yes, it does.

No, it doesn't.