Could the D20/OGL end up hurting WoTC?

[Desdichado]

No, that's just not true. RPGs aren't like movies - in that they are not standalone products which can be enjoyed with any other RPG product. They are more like Operating Systems. If someone switches to Linux over Windows, that customer's demand for Windows-based software just decreased dramatically since it's not compatible anymore. So, if someone switches to Arcana Unearthed, or Grim Tales, their demand for supplements to Eberron just went in the toilet.

If you'd used some other examples, like World of Darkness or Runequest or something, that example might have worked. In point of fact, Arcana Unearthed and Grim Tales would work very well with the latest Eberron supplement if you desired to use it that way.

Then again, there's a ton of people that buy both, whether they're playing both or not. I have a fair amount of Diamond Throne products (most of them, as a matter of fact) but I've only played one one-shot with them. I had a player play a magister in a D&D game, though, and it worked out just fine.

 

[der_kluge]

I don't think anyone here would argue that the D20/OGL is a bad thing in general. Heck, anyone here who has been published through it (myself included) is grateful for its existence.

What I'm arguing is that with increased competition for gaming dollars, the OGL has to affect WoTC's bottom line in some adverse way.

When 3.0 came out, and Relics and Rituals was on the shelf, there were a great many gamers, myself included, that didn't know it wasn't an "official" product. I suspect Sword & Sorcery Studios would give their I-teeth (whatever those are) to get the same kind of sales figures that R&R1 yielded when it first came out.

In a world without the D20 license, with WoTC products being the only choice for D&D products, I might very well have picked up Frostburn, and maybe Eberron.

For me, at least (I can only really speak for myself here), I have a certain appetite for gaming products in general, which can be satisfied with just about anything. I've bought any number of .pdfs and things from sources other than WoTC to satisfy my gaming need. At this point, I really have no need for any WoTC products, MMIII, Eberron, or anything else that might be putting out in the near future, unless it just blows me away.

I can't be alone there.

 

[der_kluge]

If you'd used some other examples, like World of Darkness or Runequest or something, that example might have worked. In point of fact, Arcana Unearthed and Grim Tales would work very well with the latest Eberron supplement if you desired to use it that way.

Then again, there's a ton of people that buy both, whether they're playing both or not. I have a fair amount of Diamond Throne products (most of them, as a matter of fact) but I've only played one one-shot with them. I had a player play a magister in a D&D game, though, and it worked out just fine.

I think it does work, and I specifically used d20 and OGL products for a reason. There is a segment of gamers, like me, who won't buy, say Eberron or FR supplements because they will be incompatible with my current campaign - a campaign which very well might have been created by a third party publisher. How many WoTC supplements are compatible with Conan or Hamunaptura(sp)?

 

[Turanil]

And yet the only problem with this model is that you are (apparently) assuming that gamers have a "gaming budget" wherein its more likely to be an "entertainment budget" instead. In that regard, you're also competing against CCGs, DVDs, computer games, and Taco Bell.

Entirely true! I am collecting DVDs, and this is what competes with d20 RPGs books. I have grown tired of pure DnD, and now only buy third party publishers d20 products. If they weren't there, I wouldn't buy more WotC books, I would buy more DVDs (plus the occasional Chaosium supplement).

 

[Psion]

What I'm arguing is that with increased competition for gaming dollars, the OGL has to affect WoTC's bottom line in some adverse way.

And what a lot of us are saying is that you can only come to this conclusion by ignoring the Skaff effect. Now whether it holds true to the effect that it once did is pure conjecture to anyone without access to WotC's sales figures. But you are never going to come to the right conclusion by totally neglecting it.

 

[Desdichado]

I think it does work, and I specifically used d20 and OGL products for a reason. There is a segment of gamers, like me, who won't buy, say Eberron or FR supplements because they will be incompatible with my current campaign - a campaign which very well might have been created by a third party publisher. How many WoTC supplements are compatible with Conan or Hamunaptura(sp)?

Eberron supplements probably aren't compatible with people running FR or Greyhawk campaigns either, though, so I'm not sure that that's an issue. You'll buy Eberron supplements if you're interested in reading about or potentially playing Eberron regardless what your current game is, unless your current game happens to actually be Eberron, of course. The presence of other OGL games can't have a very significant impact on that.

 

[Pramas]

A few notes before I get back to work on WFRP:

1) Yes, games compete with all sorts of other entertainment options. That's the cotinuing struggle of the game industry at large. I think we can agree, however, that the RPG pie is only so big and it is not immune to the repurcussions of sales trends.

2) Green Ronin has certainly grossed millions of dollars but gross and net are two different things. It is my sad duty to report that I am not a millionaire.

3) I think people shouldn't forget that 3E was a big hit before most gamers had any earthly idea of what d20 was. I would not be too quick to assume that it would have faltered without d20 and the OGL.

4) I don't believe that enough active consumers have been retained by various d20/OGL products to make good on D&D's probable sales losses over the course of 3.0 and 3.5. The "4 million players" line has been quotted a lot over the last few weeks. I can tell you right now there are not anywhere near 4 million active D&D consumers right now. Hell, there aren't even 1 million. So it may make us feel good to think there are millions of others enjoying the same hobby as us, but that has little to do with D&D as a business.

5) The "Skaff Effect" is itself nothing but an unproven hypothesis. Skaff posited it when talking about the TCG market, which is a pretty different ball of wax. One also has to wonder if he would have come up with the same theory if there had been an "Open Card Game" license promoted by WotC that allowed third party companies to produce TCG expansions 100% compatible with Magic. I doubt it.

5) This is all just my opinion, based on many years of game industry experience, some hard-won business acumen, and a certain amount of statistical knowledge from my time at WotC. Of course, it's really impossible to know how history would have been different without the OGL and d20. I could very well be wrong. Of course, many theories that sounded good in 2000 have also been proven wrong.

 

[barsoomcore]

The "operating system" analogy's not a very good one, says I -- since picking up Eberron doesn't make me uninterested in FR. I mean, if I switch from Macintoshes to PCs (heavens and all saints forbid) I suddenly have ZERO interest in Macintosh software. It holds ZERO value for me.

Whereas just because I decide to run an Eberron campaign, doesn't necessarily have much to do with my level of interest in FR material. If I'm an FR guy, I'll probably buy most well-done FR supplements as they come out. Sure, there's SOME impact, but by no means to the degree that an OS switch has. I mean, I know my Eberron campaign's going to finish up at some point, and maybe I'll run an FR game after that.

I can firmly say that the OGL has increased my gaming purchases dramatically. From roughly ZERO to several hundred dollars a year, which unless my math skills are worse than I think, is INFINITELY more, ratio-wise.

So obviously WotC is making an infinite amount of money, which is nice for them. Maybe they can get a little beachfront property in Costa Rica.

I was actually intrigued by Tav's suggestion that there are 20 millionaires in this industry. I find that a very very large number. I'd actually be surprised to learn there was ONE millionaire in this industry. Nobody else has commented on this; am I the only one who thinks this way?

Of course, all you millionaires will probably post saying, "Oh yeah, way out of line, bc, and can you spare a dime?"

 

[Desdichado]

Some of the early guys of TSR and WotC are probably millionaires. Of course, the WotC guys probably owe that more to Magic than to D&D.

 

[kenobi65]

2) Green Ronin has certainly grossed millions of dollars but gross and net are two different things. It is my sad duty to report that I am not a millionaire.

Indeed; I am seriously wondering about that concept of "pen and paper RPGs have made millionaires out of about 20 people." Like, who???

- Gary Gygax probably did OK for a while when he was in control of TSR, but I kind of doubt that he, personally made that much. (Of course, I could be wrong.)

- It's possible that She Who Must Not Be Named, and the Blume brothers, pulled a fair amount of cash out of TSR in the Dark Years, but again, millionaires? I just don't know about that.

- Peter Adkison and other stakeholders in WotC undoubtedly made a bundle when they sold the company to Hasbro. I wouldn't be surprised at all to learn that Peter is a millionaire, or was at that time. But, most of WotC at that time (and probably now, too) was card games, not RPGs.

- Other RPG companies over the years -- Steve Jackson Games and White Wolf are the ones that immediately come to mind...but, based on everything I've ever read, I don't think Stevie's made a fortune in the business. I don't know enough about White Wolf; maybe they did that well.

- Outside of the US, Games Workshop is what comes to mind. But, like WotC, that's mostly a non-RPG business.

Any other thoughts on who I'm missing?