Critical Role Critical Role Kickstarter Predition Game: Guess the Funding Outcome (GTFO)


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CleverNickName

Limit Break Dancing
I got bored, and tired of waiting. So I was tinkering around with some data from a handful of successful Kickstarters in the past, and copied-pasted it all into Excel. Then I graphed it, because I'm a huge nerd. Then I cast growth of nerd on myself, and fit an equation to that graph. Then I solved it using the expected number of backers and the average amount that each backer pledges.

So I'm putting my guess in at the weirdly-specific amount of:

$20,612,408.57

Let's see how close I get to the right answer, with only 3 days of data. :uhoh: If I'm right, nobody will be more surprised than me. (And also if I'm right, that will mean this is the highest-funded Kickstarter of all time.) Wish me luck!

Oh, and if I win, I will donate the prize to the next runner-up.
 

Mistwell

Crusty Old Meatwad (he/him)
Let's see, if each episode costs about $500,000 and a season is 22 episodes that's about $11M for a season. But they'd add a bonus episode and some filler making-of videos and such, so let's round it all to about $11.8M.
 

Parmandur

Book-Friend
I got bored, and tired of waiting. So I was tinkering around with some data from a handful of successful Kickstarters in the past, and copied-pasted it all into Excel. Then I graphed it, because I'm a huge nerd. Then I cast growth of nerd on myself, and fit an equation to that graph. Then I solved it using the expected number of backers and the average amount that each backer pledges.

So I'm putting my guess in at the weirdly-specific amount of:

$20,612,408.57

Let's see how close I get to the right answer, with only 3 days of data. :uhoh: If I'm right, nobody will be more surprised than me. (And also if I'm right, that will mean this is the highest-funded Kickstarter of all time.) Wish me luck!

Oh, and if I win, I will donate the prize to the next runner-up.

That's pretty cool. And thanks, I was about to say "Hey, thanks for edging me out, dude!"
 

CleverNickName

Limit Break Dancing
That's pretty cool. And thanks, I was about to say "Hey, thanks for edging me out, dude!"
I don't know if a difference of more than $612K can be called "edging you out", but I know what you mean. :)

I'm curious how close it comes. It was a pretty sophisticated model; it took into account that the top-tier pledges would no longer be available (and were therefore removed from the "dollars per future backer" calculation), that there would be predictable spikes near each stretch goal and a significant spike near the end of the event, and that both the number of new backers per day and the average pledge of each would otherwise diminish in separate log functions. I'm pretty proud of it.

But when I went online and checked my prediction with a few "professional" models, they gave VASTLY different numbers. So...grain of salt and all that. I probably shouldn't quit my day job. :)
 

Parmandur

Book-Friend
I don't know if a difference of more than $612K can be called "edging you out", but I know what you mean. :)

I'm curious how close it comes. It was a pretty sophisticated model; it took into account that the top-tier pledges would no longer be available (and were therefore removed from the "dollars per future backer" calculation), that there would be predictable spikes near each stretch goal and a significant spike near the end of the event, and that both the number of new backers per day and the average pledge of each would otherwise diminish in separate log functions. I'm pretty proud of it.

But when I went online and checked my prediction with a few "professional" models, they gave VASTLY different numbers. So...grain of salt and all that. I probably shouldn't quit my day job. :)

Take all projections with a huuuuge grain of salt with Kickstarter: too many unknown variables. Like, the project could add more high end pledge options within the next month and a half, and how many people inj the world really want a D&D style cartoon, and how many will hear through some channel in 42 days?
 

CleverNickName

Limit Break Dancing
I'm sticking to my original guess of $20,612,408.57, even though my calculator now gives a very different (and lower) result. Don't wanna disqualify myself by making more than one guess.
 



Morrus

Well, that was fun
Staff member
Out of curiosity, what are the latest forecasts from your personal model?

If he has a personal model which can accurately project Kickstarter totals 5 days in, he could sell that to Kicktraq and Backerkit (and probably Kickstarter itself) for a lot of money! Because they can't do it, and that's *all* they do!
 

Parmandur

Book-Friend
If he has a personal model which can accurately project Kickstarter totals 5 days in, he could sell that to Kicktraq and Backerkit (and probably Kickstarter itself) for a lot of money! Because they can't do it, and that's *all* they do!

Nah, it's all for fun and experimentation.
 


CleverNickName

Limit Break Dancing
If he has a personal model which can accurately project Kickstarter totals 5 days in, he could sell that to Kicktraq and Backerkit (and probably Kickstarter itself) for a lot of money! Because they can't do it, and that's *all* they do!
So true.

Alright folks, anyone else want to take a shot at winning a HeroForge custom 3D mini? Here's my latest one: Malachi Bontreagr, Hexblade.
HeroForgeScreenshot (12).png
 
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Henry

Autoexreginated
I'm going to go with probably $8.9 million - mainly because I also suspect Reigel let the Frumpkin out of the bag with that 8.8 million remark...
 

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