Critical Role Kickstarter Predition Game: Guess the Funding Outcome (GTFO)

robus

Lowcountry Low Roller
My theory is that this fund raiser will defy the usual pattern and slowly peter out until the end, mostly because the enthusiasts have been targeted already, now it's just mopping up the tail end. I'm guessing $7,750,000. (Pretty much 10x what they expected which seems reasonable :) )
 

Parmandur

Legend
My theory is that this fund raiser will defy the usual pattern and slowly peter out until the end, mostly because the enthusiasts have been targeted already, now it's just mopping up the tail end. I'm guessing $7,750,000. (Pretty much 10x what they expected which seems reasonable :) )
Hasn't defied the usual pattern so far, and only 5% of their audience has participated at this point.
 

dnd4vr

Adventurer
Sigh... I got so caught up replying to the post for Shield Master, I forgot to submit my entry before I went to bed.

I know I can't win now, but for the record it would have been: $7,499,999.

Lucky for MarkB, I would have pinned his entry against the wall LOL!
 
ONE WEEK UPDATE:

$7,160,748 pledged
52,605 backers
36 days to go

Yesterday was a rough day for the Kickstarter. (Okay okay, if "rough" means you only raise $86,000.00. That's significantly more than my household's entire annual income.) It was the first time they had earned less than $100K in a single day (they had a $10,000 backer drop out) and it's skewing the numbers a bit. Now when I plug in the numbers from the last week into my Excel spreadsheet, it predicts that Sadras will win...but only because Zaardnar overbet by less than $4K.

But all models lie, and mine lies so much it could run for office.

I expect the numbers will rally today and tomorrow, as they get closer to the $7.5M stretch goal. But the Kickstarter is definitely losing momentum. Don't get me wrong; it's not doomed or anything. I'm confident they will beat all stretch goals. (It just won't be as easy as last week suggested it would be.)
 
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robus

Lowcountry Low Roller
Yesterday was a rough day for the Kickstarter. (Okay okay, if "rough" means you only raise $86,000.00. That's significantly more than my household's entire annual income.) It was the first time they had earned less than $100K in a single day (they had a $10,000 backer drop out) and it's skewing the numbers a bit.
Ha! Just as I predicted (rubs hands together mischievously). "Begun, the petering out has..."

(I'm not actually happy about it - it just matches my expectation, for the moment... but really they've made plenty of money... hmm enough to pay for a couple of spots at an elite university... Keep an eye on Sam Riegel!)
 
They just passed their second-to-last stretch goal ($7.5M), which means [MENTION=40176]MarkB[/MENTION] is now in the winning position! Let's see how long he can hold it.
 

MarkB

Hero
I wonder where they'll set their next stretch goal. I'll be happy to lose if it means an extra two episodes.
 

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