Critical Role Kickstarter Predition Game: Guess the Funding Outcome (GTFO)

Parmandur

Legend
So, at the rate they've been steady at, the "final" stretch goal should be passed within two weeks or so, leaving a loooot of time for the rest of the campaign...
 
I'm back in the USA! And it looks like [MENTION=6876146]SmokeyCriminal[/MENTION] took the lead while I was away.

Just a few more weeks until the Kickstarter ends. My prediction spreadsheet now predicts that the ultimate winner will be [MENTION=51168]MichaelSomething[/MENTION], but that changes practically every day. Only time will tell!
 
The Kickstarter currently stands at $8,362,635, which means [MENTION=6871653]vincegetorix[/MENTION] has taken the lead! There are just over two weeks remaining, and it looks like [MENTION=143]Lazybones[/MENTION] will be the ultimate winner (if my spreadsheet works, and if the current trend holds). Time will tell!
 
[MENTION=28334]Lidgar[/MENTION] took the lead last night, but I don't think he can hold on to it for much longer; it looks like [MENTION=6971927]mortwatcher[/MENTION] will overtake him on Thursday. Kickstarter pledges have slowed down dramatically in recent weeks, falling from about $100K/day to around $55K/day. But don't be worried. Even at that "slow" rate, they will reach their final stretch goal in another 6 days. (I know that $55K/day feels small compared to the craziness of a few weeks ago, but that is still a huge amount for any Kickstarter project.)

My spreadsheet predicts a final result of $9,715,346, and that [MENTION=6798942]PabloM[/MENTION] will win by a very narrow margin. But my spreadsheet doesn't account for a last-week crush, and my gut tells me the final amount will be closer to what [MENTION=7706]SkidAce[/MENTION] predicted. (And Kicktraq thinks [MENTION=6789021]Yardiff[/MENTION] will win.) Only time will tell!
 

Lidgar

Explorer
I shall celebrate my short-lived lead in haiku:

Played for his birthday
Then for legions of streamers
Soon immortal toons

Here's hoping the series is a critical success (ooh, that was bad)
 
Thanks to the #CritterPush during last night's broadcast, the Kickstarter blew through their final stretch goal (of $8.8M) and then another $111K before it slowed back down. [MENTION=6971927]mortwatcher[/MENTION] barely got to spend any time at all in the limelight, before [MENTION=158]Henry[/MENTION] took the lead. Last night's event really blew up my spreadsheet too, which depends on a smooth U-shaped graph and wasn't designed to handle spikes like this. I'm now predicting [MENTION=1]Morrus[/MENTION] to win...but let's be honest, nobody knows anymore. Critters are crazy.

(For those not in the know, the #CritterPush event was coordinated in the Kickstarter comment section by a handful of pledges who thought it would be hilarious if they broke their final stretch goal live during their regular broadcast. So they coordinated tens of thousands of donors over social media, asking everyone to increase their pledges by just $5 to accomplish that task. It worked better than they had hoped, because like I said: Critters are crazy.)
 

pogre

Adventurer
The plan not to add any further stretch goals is probably wise, but is going to slow this train down quite a bit.
 
And [MENTION=6801213]akr71[/MENTION] takes the lead! ( [MENTION=6802487]rczarnec[/MENTION] also guessed the same amount, but akr71 guessed it first.) There are only 8 days remaining, and my spreadsheet predicts that [MENTION=2525]Mistwell[/MENTION] will win by less than $10k.

At $9,264,399 the "Legend of Vox Machina Animated Series" Kickstarter has replaced "The World's Best Travel Jacket" as the 6th highest-funded project in Kickstarter history. Because as Marisha would tell you:

[SBLOCK="-Language Warning-"]Sleeves.jpg[/SBLOCK]
 
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I think I´m winning right now, do I?
I need to enjoy my victory time while it lasts
Yep, I had updated the first page to reflect your lead. Looks like things have slowed down quite a bit, and nearly every projection online is now saying that [MENTION=7706]SkidAce[/MENTION] will be the winner of my silly little contest. But Critters are crazy, there's no telling what this last week will be like...
 

Parmandur

Legend
Yep, I had updated the first page to reflect your lead. Looks like things have slowed down quite a bit, and nearly every projection online is now saying that @SkidAce will be the winner of my silly little contest. But Critters are crazy, there's no telling what this last week will be like...
Usually, a fair number of people wait until the final 48 hours to pledge for any campaign, 48 hours being when Kickstarter sends email reminders to people who expressed interest by "hearting' the project previously.

That's the big "X" for the crazy algebra here. How many people pushed the little heart for this to come back later, and how many of those will pledge, and how much will they pledge?

Given the still significant gap between their viewership and the pledging population, and the high average pledge rate, this could still go pretty bonkers.
 
TEN
MILLION
DOLLARS

(and counting)
[MENTION=51168]MichaelSomething[/MENTION] has taken the lead from [MENTION=143]Lazybones[/MENTION], and poor Travis Willingham will have to go through a haunted house (#YeeHawntedHouse). There's only 60 hours remaining in the Kickstarter!
 

Parmandur

Legend
What tier do I have to pledge at to receive access to the cartoon?
None of the pledge levels involve any particular form of access, though they have committed to all donors having some form of first access: all the rewards are swag.
 

akr71

Explorer
^ yes, all KS backers get priority access to the animated series, but it will be available to all eventually. I pledged $3 to get the priority access - none of the swag was particularly attractive to me, but I do want to see it as soon as possible.

I messaged them thru the KS and they responded in the affirmative to that.
 

MNblockhead

A Title Much Cooler Than Anything on the Old Site
Most of us are just supporting it so that it gets made. Priority access is nice. I personally do not care about the swag and am glad they they have not tried to keep adding various physical rewards. I want them focused on making the best show that they can and don't want them distracted by the logistics of baker rewards.
 

Harzel

Explorer
^ yes, all KS backers get priority access to the animated series, but it will be available to all eventually. I pledged $3 to get the priority access - none of the swag was particularly attractive to me, but I do want to see it as soon as possible.

I messaged them thru the KS and they responded in the affirmative to that.
Most of us are just supporting it so that it gets made. Priority access is nice. I personally do not care about the swag and am glad they they have not tried to keep adding various physical rewards. I want them focused on making the best show that they can and don't want them distracted by the logistics of baker rewards.
How can you not want a Trinket plushie????? :confused:
:)
 

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