D&D: big as it ever was? (Forked Thread: So...How are Sales of 4E Product?)

[Fifth Element]

Remember that sales of current material is meaningless

Far from it. You can't take it at full face value, but to claim it's "meaningless" is just plain ridiculous.

because it doesn't mean that many people are actually using those products. Some may have no place to get rid of them at, and may not use them at all. It doesn't mean that many people are playing, just that many people bought it.

The past was less true of this, because if you spent that kind of money you were going to use it, and already know you needed it.

This is also a ridiculous assertion. 4E sales are meaningless, because you think that people buy the game and don't play it. But pre-4E, everyone who bought the game played it, for some nebulous reason.

That is a baseless assertion. You don't have a shred of evidence to support it. You're assuming that most people buying 4E are disappointed with it, and don't actually play it. I could just as easily assume the same about any other edition, but I have absolutely no evidence that it's the case.

 

[TerraDave]

Ok, so it has a bigger player base, but that is a smaller % of population. It is a well-established hobby, but not a cultural phenomon.

Fine. That makes it like a lot of other things: skate boarding, various musical sub-genres...I feel like Mr Ryan is going farther. So far as to say it is like Apple (Computers). A big phenomanon that fades, then comes back really strong. This I just don't see. But he had acess to the numbers, not me.

 

[thecasualoblivion]

ENWorld isn't a good representative sample of D&D players. A recent poll here that included the age of the voters indicated that a large majority of the people here are 30+.

 

[Qualidar]

The real question is, which figure (percentage or hard numbers) makes it easier for me to find other players?

Which figure makes it more socially acceptable to play in public? (Not that I personally care...)

Which figure better guarantees the future of our hobby?

Exactly my point.

Best thing for the hobby would be for one edition to win(regardless of which), and establish itself as THE D&D. Splitting and fighting amongst the two isn't good for the hobby.

The thing is, this isn't a war 3E can win. Either 4E will succeed or D&D as a whole will fail.

I disagree with you on this. Anyone playing D&D is playing D&D, regardless of edition. What you're talking about isn't what's good for the hobby, but what's good for WotC.

I don't really understand why the relative number of D&Ders (as opposed to the absolute) matters.

Yes, in the '80s, D&D was definitely more high profile in popular culture than it is today. That said, sales data also suggests to us D&D is being purchased by more people now than at any time in the past, including during its fad days. Thus, even though D&D might be played by a smaller percentage of the total population now than in the '80s, there are still significantly more people playing D&D (and therefore buying D&D products) than in the '80s. Since businesses succeed on the basis of whether or not their revenue exceeds their costs, rather than "more than X percentage of the population plays the game". Hence, D&D is played by more people now and making more money now; why does the relative number of players matter

It doesn't matter if you're concerned about revenue, but if you're concerned about the social acceptance of the game (and gamers) the better percentage is the important number.

. . . conversely I have grognard rpg friends who despise the D&D novels despite never having read any since the original Dragonlance trilogy.

Whoa whoa whoa!! Not liking D&D novels makes you a gronard? I thought that just meant you had decent taste in literature.

Meaning WotC/Hasbro taking a chance on a nobody director because he was cheap means they got what they paid for.

Neither WotC nor TSR had anything to do with that movie. The rights were bought at bargain basement prices ($10,000, I think I remember hearing) by some fan long before WotC ever came into the picture.

ENWorld isn't a good representative sample of D&D players. A recent poll here that included the age of the voters indicated that a large majority of the people here are 30+.

I would think that the majority of the RPG community is 30+.

 

[The Little Raven]

WotC inability to fund things and get people that could work within a budget, which still holds true today with bad R&D and marketing decisions.

WotC had nothing to do with the D&D movie. They didn't sell the rights to Courtney Solomon, TSR did. They didn't produce (aka fund) the movie in any way, shape, or form. Blaming WotC for the movie shows that you know nothing about the circumstances that brought the movie to production.

The past was less true of this, because if you spent that kind of money you were going to use it, and already know you needed it.

Wait, so are you saying that in times of greater economic stability (early 2000s, 1990s, etc), people are less likely to buy things they won't use, but in times of economic decline (present day), they are more likely to buy things they won't use? So, when there's more money, people are penny pinchers, but when money is tight, people are frivolous with it? Yeah, that makes sense in no way.

Nor does your claim that people always played things in the past if they bought them, but they don't now, especially since you have zero evidence.

We need solid real numbers of population and sales to determine how well 4th, 3rd, etc did compared to older editions over their lifespan and average that to the age of the shortest lived product....being 4th edition with only a few months.

We can't get solid real numbers because TSR had incredibly shady record keeping for a long time, so those numbers you talk about do not exist. All we have is some anecdotal comments from Gygax a few years back (though his direct experience with D&D sales ends in the mid 1980s) about AD&D kicking ass back in the day, and we also have Ryan Dancey's much more recent comments about a warehouse full of unsold 1e stock valued at $0.

 

[The Little Raven]

The DVD says they went way over budget, that is why the dragon hatching scene was cut and several others went unfinished because they went over budget and couldn't get more money.

Yeah, the production crew went over budget. What does that have to do with WotC or 4e, neither of which were involved in either production or financial affairs for the movie?

Meaning WotC/Hasbro taking a chance on a nobody director because he was cheap means they got what they paid for.

You should do some actual fact-checking. TSR sold Solomon the rights, and it was his investors, not TSR or WotC, that pushed him into the director's role, despite his admitted lack of experience in filmmaking.

Here's the sum total of WotC's involvement with the movie: they happened to own D&D at the time, and used Dragon Magazine to help hype it.

 

[justanobody]

There may be more places in the open to play now because of the CCG craze and gaming stores, but there are actually less people playing the new edition than played previous editions and transferred to them.

The second paragraph of the quote!

OK lets try this....

Gaming stores helped ALL forms of gaming and they were created in many new areas thanks to CCGs? Is this disputed?

With EACH new edition you find that the number of players solely playing the new edition decreases as people stay with the older editions.

I haven't yet been to anywhere that doesn't still have more people playing 3rd edition than 4th. A few AD&D games, and seen a RC game once.

Outside of an RPGA event that now requires 4th, there are few people I see that are playing 4th edition in these stores.

They are still dominated with 3rd edition players and 3rd edition groups with a few older editions thrown in.

So either they are playing 4th edition safely away form 3rd edition players, or just not as many are playing in these stores.

It may be they play 4th at home, and only 3rd in the stores because of the numbers of people they can get a quick game with still that know 3rd.

I haven't really looked into RPGA events as I don't think there have been that many yet, and don't really like the living games idea with mixing up groups. I like a good formed group not a whole new mix each time you play.

Possibly only a localized phenomenon, but it all I have to go on. I haven't heard of anystore that doesn't still have a majority 3rd edition playerbase.

Poll:

I think it will give good information basing 4th vs 4th at a later date to show how stable those numbers were in the beginning versus if it was the novelty of the newest thing.

@malraux:

I could have swore my DVD disagrees with that statement, and WotC approved and gave the rights to the movie to that director as TSR turned him down. Maybe Boz our local wikipedia expert can look into that article after the WotC one is fixed?

I will throw any info from the DVD into a thread if/when he makes it about updating the movie's article.

I am sure WotC had a good bit of input for that movie as one of the WotC/D&D execs was a supervisor for it. How much that entails I don't know right off hand. Maybe Mr Rouse or Mearls knows if it is not on the DVD.

Ok, so it has a bigger player base, but that is a smaller % of population.

I think that is a key thing to look at.

@MOVIE:

I watch DVD extras once, and then never again. How many years ago was that? So of course this is all fresh in my head.

 

[The Little Raven]

With EACH new edition you find that the number of players solely playing the new edition decreases as people stay with the older editions.

No, I don't find that, because I see no evidence for it. Every time I've paid attention to a new edition of a game, whether it is D&D or Vampire, I always see more people playing the new edition than the old.

 

[garyh]

Justanobody,

It's obvious you have convinced yourself that 4e is a complete and utter failure. Given that, why do you feel the need to try to convince others of that as well? If you're correct, I'm sure D&D will fold and/or 5e will come out shortly to prove you right, and then we can all congratulate on your fine assessment of the situation.

 

[justanobody]

So true since I play in one campaign of it.

I just don't think it is D&D that much.