D&D is dying by the hour

[Glyfair]

What I'm wondering is what kind of profit expectations Hasbro has regarding DDI and what Hasbro would do if those expectations aren't met.

By all reports, Hasbro doesn't micromanage WotC at that level. Certainly they have profit expectations, but that's from WotC as a whole.

Certainly WotC has profit expectations. Those expectations were also probably put in place by people put in place by Hasbro. However, that's not the same as Hasbro having profit expectations for the brand.

Now, if someone made them a huge offer to buy the D&D brand, I'm sure they'd start taking a closer interest. However, I doubt Hasbro is really looking at individual D&D numbers except as it relates to their general penetration (tracking how their relationship is with the book trade, for example).

 

[Reynard]

This is so 1999.

:: parties ::

 

[ShinHakkaider]

THIS promo piece is currently up on CNET.

 

[mhacdebhandia]

THIS promo piece is currently up on CNET.

Wow, look at the huge cover images there.

 

[MaelStorm]

This, unfortunately, is not the issue. TRPGs, including D&D, have been bleeding consumers for years now. It really doesn't matter how well the game is designed, how pretty it is or how much fun it is to play if, in the end, it is just another TRPG. In the long run, after the intial boost of the core books, the player attrition problem will have the same impact on 4E as it did on 3E and 3.5 and the choice will be yet another edition, or to do something different. I think theya re trying to skop that step and want to do something different right now, hence the importance of D&DI to the overall measure of success for 4E.

Traditional, table top RPGs are an outmoded form of entertainment, no matter how much we (you know, that insignificant minority that hangs out on message boards) may love them and vow to be playing in the old folks home. While it may have once been true that RPGs provide the best value for our entertainment dollar, it isn't any more. Sure, you have to play a monthly fee to play WoW, but with 22 hours a week being the average people play WoW, that $14.95 per month amounts to a hell of a value (dollar to hours wise). In addition, there are lots of games that don't require a subscription that still give lots of playability (FPSes and RTSes with lots of mods spring to mind) or online services that are even cheaper than WoW that allow for lots of different entertainment options (XBox Live, frex). And the cost of the hardware doesn't really count the way it used to, as most homes have computers in them now and most games a fully playable on the run of the mill, off the shelf machine.

So, while I do not agree with the OP that D&D is dead (yet) or that WotC is intentionally trying to kill D&D (man, what?), I do think that 4E and its associated online components do represent a paradigm shift for the game and the industry. D&D doesn't have to be or beat WoW, but it needs to be able to offer comperable entertainment value per dollar. And the elements that limit that value are all things inherent in TRPGs as a whole: scheduling being a big one, and the fact that it often comes down to prep vs purchase, either choice reducing the overall value. Plus, there's the big hurdle, and the thing that makes an RPG an RPG -- the presence of the GM, the inherent inequality of expense of both effort and money by one of 5 or 6 participants. I don't think 4E will alter or eliminate all of these, but I think it and the D&DI will lay the groundwork for eliminating or severly altering them in the near future.

I think it's a question of perception. In the *new economy* (the era of globalization, or the market deregulation that has been happening for the past 25 years, or so) it makes perfect sense that D&D need to upgrade to the new reality. I.E.: when we compare other segments like the video game industry, CRPG are dying while MMORPG are now the cream of the crop (before you just had to buy a game + extensions, now its game + extensions + monthly fee). But I think the problem will blowback in the future. Right now consumers are seeing this change positively, so everything is great. But I think the economic cycle is changing rapidly and the bubble is about to burst and when it will happen consumers will not be able to shelve the money for monthly fee anymore. That will be the first thing they will drop. Realist people will jump out of their seat and will say: "What, are you crazy? This will never happen". Well, I hope so, but I don't see it that way.

The paradigm shift that people are now realizing more and more is not new. D&D was created in 1974 and stayed the old fashioned way. Now the're trying to turn the tide by doing this change with DDI, but they should have started this trend in 2000 when WotC bought TSR. I hope their plan for DDI will work, but I sense they waited too long to do it. Now we're about to go in a new paradigm shift and the change will be completed in the next 5 years, maximum 10 years. That's how I perceive the future and I know I'm in the minority. I don't have a crystal ball you will say, but everybody can use their sense to be more attuned to what is going on in the invisible reality. Everything is going in cycle, from one paradigm shift to the other one. It's not something extraordinary, but it's something that you need to develop. Anyway that's my 2 copper piece and I know it will be deemed illogical because you either can sense it or not.

EDIT: It's not only about the flow of money but also a change in consciousness (or how you spend your precious time coupled with how you spend your income in the new paradigm shift).