D&D is dying by the hour
- Thread starter Frawan
- Start date
Beckett
Explorer
GameOgre said:
For several years, Paizo had the license to publish the Dragon and Dungeon magazines. When Wizards of the Coast declined to renew the license (having decided to bring the magazines back in house and put them online), Paizo started making 3.5 adventures.
With the long delay of the GSL (required before third-party companies can produce 4E material), Paizo decided to stick with 3.5... in a way. Since the core 3.5 books won't be published after 4E is released, Paizo is going to make their own core rules, the Pathfinder RPG, or D&D 3.75. It's currently in open alpha, with the first set of updates available over on their website, paizo.com.
WheresMyD20
First Post
The online stuff is where the money is. Hasbro/WotC gets to keep a much larger % of the DDI subscription price than they get to keep of a book's price. Plus, the DDI has lower overhead costs and a more stable revenue stream.Crothian said:
I wouldn't be surprised if Hasbro/WotC considers DDI to be an essential part of their core strategy. I expect them to be pushing the DDI pretty hard once 4e comes out.
I wonder what Hasbro/WotC would do if the 4e books sell well, but the DDI fails. Would they still consider 4e a success? Would they be content with D&D remaining just a book publishing business? What would it mean for the future of D&D?
1. The fact that the DDI has a higher margin for Hasbro doesn't automatically make it "where the money is." Margin is only relevant in combination with volume. And we don't actually know that the DDI is a higher margin product. Presumably the DDI will require staff.
2. That said, they probably do consider the DDi to be an essential part of their business strategy.
3. Honestly? I bet they'd still consider 4e a success. 4e is probably essential to WOTC's success even if it doesn't produce much revenue itself. 4e is probably the driver for the sale of lots of other products, like D&D miniatures. Without D&D and an understanding of D&D tropes, the D&D miniatures game is just a skirmish game without a backstory.
2. That said, they probably do consider the DDi to be an essential part of their business strategy.
3. Honestly? I bet they'd still consider 4e a success. 4e is probably essential to WOTC's success even if it doesn't produce much revenue itself. 4e is probably the driver for the sale of lots of other products, like D&D miniatures. Without D&D and an understanding of D&D tropes, the D&D miniatures game is just a skirmish game without a backstory.
WheresMyD20
First Post
Of course there will be some overhead associated with DDI, but I'd be very surprised if it had lower margins that their book-publishing business. Volume is still the big unknown. Will players flock to DDI? What happens if they don't?Cadfan said:
I'm not so sure that Hasbro would consider 4e a success if DDI fails. I don't think the D&D miniatures game needs an RPG in order to survive. Warhammer minis have done just fine with little or no RPG support over the years, so why not D&D?Cadfan said:
I don't think the D&D RPG is necessarily the driver. The D&D brand name is very strong and garners a lot of name recognition. If DDI fails to perform the way Hasbro expects it to, is the D&D RPG lucrative enough on its own for Hasbro to continue supporting it? Would Hasbro drop the RPG and use the brand name for other things like minis, novels, video games, etc.?
Warhammer is set in an evocative fantasy world with a great number of fans. Its also an industry founding game, the leader of its industry, and the giant gorilla of fantasy wargames. And it wasn't RPG support that was at issue, it was backstory and setting. Without D&D, the D&D miniatures game is... what? A random game of random battles between random monsters? With D&D, its a place to stomp around with your favorite critters from the RPG. That's a serious motivator, and it also serves to justify monsters that wouldn't make a lick of sense without some kind of explanation. Maybe some new explanation could be made, but right now the cost of creating fluff and flavor for the miniatures game is offloaded onto the RPG. As is a lot of the customer feed.WheresMyD20 said:
See, I think that the D&D brand name is strong only because of the RPG. Without the RPG, I think the brand name is nothing. With a dead RPG, the brand name probably becomes a liability.WheresMyD20 said:
Crazy Jerome
First Post
Based on nothing more than D&D owners' attempts at electronic media in the past, the current information coming out, and 18 years of working on software projects--I currently see the DDI heading for a crash. The only question in my mind is whether it will be a complete, undeniable crash and major explosion, a slow scream into a death spiral ending in a whimper, or one of those things were it gets real hairy, but with some heroic effort, most everyone involved lives to show off the scars. 
So you understand when I say this, it is a hunch. And educated hunch, but still a hunch.
This will have absolutely no effect on the life or death of D&D. What WotC lacks in electronic product experience, they emphatically do not lack in putting together solid games with solid production values.
And I should also say that I agree with the "AskJoelOnSoftware.com" guy that version 1.0 of a product is seldom successful by any objective measure. (That is, it lets the user do what the original vision intended for them to do, and do it well.) However, assuming they can avoid the complete explosion, along about version 3.0 might very well achieve what they want. The D&D brand has had sucky electronic components (like most tabletop games), in part because they haven't stuck with it long enough. Of course, if they wait too long, one of the other VTT guys will hit version 3 or 4, master the market, and leave them out in the cold. If you held me at gunpoint, and made me bet right now, I'd pick Fantasy Grounds or Battlegrounds to be the ultimate winner (or both, squeezing out the rest of the competitiion). But I"m not a betting man where software is concerned.
So you understand when I say this, it is a hunch. And educated hunch, but still a hunch.This will have absolutely no effect on the life or death of D&D. What WotC lacks in electronic product experience, they emphatically do not lack in putting together solid games with solid production values.
And I should also say that I agree with the "AskJoelOnSoftware.com" guy that version 1.0 of a product is seldom successful by any objective measure. (That is, it lets the user do what the original vision intended for them to do, and do it well.) However, assuming they can avoid the complete explosion, along about version 3.0 might very well achieve what they want. The D&D brand has had sucky electronic components (like most tabletop games), in part because they haven't stuck with it long enough. Of course, if they wait too long, one of the other VTT guys will hit version 3 or 4, master the market, and leave them out in the cold. If you held me at gunpoint, and made me bet right now, I'd pick Fantasy Grounds or Battlegrounds to be the ultimate winner (or both, squeezing out the rest of the competitiion). But I"m not a betting man where software is concerned.
Crazy Jerome
First Post
If they aren't making a major investment in salaries for the DDI folks, then I can tell you right now that they might as well have taken their investment out in the backyard and burned it. It would produce the same final result, with less effort. You cannot do this on the cheap, and do it well, and meet their schedule. Accurate, inexpensive, and on time. Pick any two.
