D&D is dying by the hour

[WheresMyD20]

Warhammer is set in an evocative fantasy world with a great number of fans. Its also an industry founding game, the leader of its industry, and the giant gorilla of fantasy wargames. And it wasn't RPG support that was at issue, it was backstory and setting. Without D&D, the D&D miniatures game is... what? A random game of random battles between random monsters? With D&D, its a place to stomp around with your favorite critters from the RPG. That's a serious motivator, and it also serves to justify monsters that wouldn't make a lick of sense without some kind of explanation. Maybe some new explanation could be made, but right now the cost of creating fluff and flavor for the miniatures game is offloaded onto the RPG. As is a lot of the customer feed.

If story and setting were an issue, Hasbro could simply use the Forgotten Realms for D&D minis. It's a large, established world with a very large fanbase. Besides, I highly doubt that fluff is all that important or all that expensive to produce. Dungeons and Dragons is the biggest brand name in fantasy gaming. As long as the minis game carries that brand, whether or not the RPG exists isn't important.

See, I think that the D&D brand name is strong only because of the RPG. Without the RPG, I think the brand name is nothing. With a dead RPG, the brand name probably becomes a liability.

You've got it completely backwards. Dungeons and Dragons is a household name. Even non-gamers have heard of it. The RPG thrives because of the name, not in spite of it. The RPG could be discontinued, but the brand name would still add sales to any fantasy novel, movie, video game, boardgame, etc. that it was linked to.

 

[WheresMyD20]

If they aren't making a major investment in salaries for the DDI folks, then I can tell you right now that they might as well have taken their investment out in the backyard and burned it. It would produce the same final result, with less effort. You cannot do this on the cheap, and do it well, and meet their schedule. Accurate, inexpensive, and on time. Pick any two.

Bingo. It's the classic better/faster/cheaper law of supply chain. I doubt they'll miss deploying on the release date of 4e and I really doubt they'll want to run up their overhead cost. Maybe they'll surprise us, but judging from the previews so far, the DDI thing isn't looking so good. If the DDI turns out to be as bad as we fear, what impact will that have on the RPG line?

 

[Crazy Jerome]

Bingo. It's the classic better/faster/cheaper law of supply chain. I doubt they'll miss deploying on the release date of 4e and I really doubt they'll want to run up their overhead cost. Maybe they'll surprise us, but judging from the previews so far, the DDI thing isn't looking so good. If the DDI turns out to be as bad as we fear, what impact will that have on the RPG line?

That we can detect, even subjectively? No effect whatsoever. The product will continue along, more or less as if the DDI doesn't exist. (The negative vibes from people that get mad at D&D because of DDI will be more or less offset by the postive vibes from people that feel they are getting a decent enough value out of the online subscriptions, and so forth. )

You can only measure it against what might have been. In theory, a really stupendous DDI--designed to take full advantage of the network effect, built on a solid technical platform capable of rolling out steady feature improvements, and fully supported with documentation and tech support--could rapidly grow into something capable of vastly increasing the D&D audience. How vast? No idea. All we can really say is that eventually someone will get it right. When they do, we can see what kind of effect it has. Then we can look back and say they could have done that, circa 2009.

 

[JPL]

"Lack of communication"? Not a day goes by without some new info. There are blogs, there are playtests, there are preview books. In this day and age, it's amazing that they are ABLE to keep such a tight lid on things, but I don't see this as a bad marketing strategy.

 

[Shroomy]

Is it dead yet? I want to take its stuff.

 

[WheresMyD20]

That we can detect, even subjectively? No effect whatsoever. The product will continue along, more or less as if the DDI doesn't exist. (The negative vibes from people that get mad at D&D because of DDI will be more or less offset by the postive vibes from people that feel they are getting a decent enough value out of the online subscriptions, and so forth. )

What I'm wondering is what kind of profit expectations Hasbro has regarding DDI and what Hasbro would do if those expectations aren't met. I'm not sure that Hasbro would just let 4e continue on its normal trajectory if DDI fails. Is there enough profit in the book sales for Hasbro to justify publishing a paper-and-pencil RPG?

 

[drjones]

What I'm wondering is what kind of profit expectations Hasbro has regarding DDI and what Hasbro would do if those expectations aren't met. I'm not sure that Hasbro would just let 4e continue on its normal trajectory if DDI fails. Is there enough profit in the book sales for Hasbro to justify publishing a paper-and-pencil RPG?

Exactly, it's dead dead dead, dead as a doornail dead. Now let me go preorder another 100$ worth of books.

 

[Greatwyrm]

Is it dead yet? I want to take its stuff.

You win, Shroomy! Pick up your prize and tote bag at the service desk.

 

[Reynard]

What WotC lacks in electronic product experience, they emphatically do not lack in putting together solid games with solid production values.

This, unfortunately, is not the issue. TRPGs, including D&D, have been bleeding consumers for years now. It really doesn't matter how well the game is designed, how pretty it is or how much fun it is to play if, in the end, it is just another TRPG. In the long run, after the intial boost of the core books, the player attrition problem will have the same impact on 4E as it did on 3E and 3.5 and the choice will be yet another edition, or to do something different. I think theya re trying to skop that step and want to do something different right now, hence the importance of D&DI to the overall measure of success for 4E.

Traditional, table top RPGs are an outmoded form of entertainment, no matter how much we (you know, that insignificant minority that hangs out on message boards) may love them and vow to be playing in the old folks home. While it may have once been true that RPGs provide the best value for our entertainment dollar, it isn't any more. Sure, you have to play a monthly fee to play WoW, but with 22 hours a week being the average people play WoW, that $14.95 per month amounts to a hell of a value (dollar to hours wise). In addition, there are lots of games that don't require a subscription that still give lots of playability (FPSes and RTSes with lots of mods spring to mind) or online services that are even cheaper than WoW that allow for lots of different entertainment options (XBox Live, frex). And the cost of the hardware doesn't really count the way it used to, as most homes have computers in them now and most games a fully playable on the run of the mill, off the shelf machine.

So, while I do not agree with the OP that D&D is dead (yet) or that WotC is intentionally trying to kill D&D (man, what?), I do think that 4E and its associated online components do represent a paradigm shift for the game and the industry. D&D doesn't have to be or beat WoW, but it needs to be able to offer comperable entertainment value per dollar. And the elements that limit that value are all things inherent in TRPGs as a whole: scheduling being a big one, and the fact that it often comes down to prep vs purchase, either choice reducing the overall value. Plus, there's the big hurdle, and the thing that makes an RPG an RPG -- the presence of the GM, the inherent inequality of expense of both effort and money by one of 5 or 6 participants. I don't think 4E will alter or eliminate all of these, but I think it and the D&DI will lay the groundwork for eliminating or severly altering them in the near future.

 

[hong]

Plus, there's the big hurdle, and the thing that makes an RPG an RPG -- the presence of the GM, the inherent inequality of expense of both effort and money by one of 5 or 6 participants. I don't think 4E will alter or eliminate all of these, but I think it and the D&DI will lay the groundwork for eliminating or severly altering them in the near future.

This is so 1999.