D&D Miniatures spreadsheet: How many should you buy?

[Wombat]

You know, there are addition intervention groups out there...

(one more reason I didn't get into D&D minis -- the Collector Factor)

 

[Harlock]

I hear ya, Joe. You migh be able to work some trades for rares still, however. I've done some trading and rares for rares is the general rule. I've also traded some uncommon minis for commons I needed. Oh, and the sets they are releasing later will have some orcs and the ogre in it, so that may be the way to go for regular D&D gamers.

 

[thalmin]

OK, I picked up far more than I should have. At first, I bought a starter and a booster. Then a case of boosters. Then a couple packs at a time. After a lot of trading I have the entire set now, with some desired dupes. But where are all the gnolls? I have about (mumble35mumble) packs, only 2 gnolls. That is really uncommon.

 

[JavaApp]

But where are all the gnolls? I have about (mumble35mumble) packs, only 2 gnolls. That is really uncommon.

I know what you mean, Thalmin, I only have 1 gnoll myself.

Hey Joshua, Yeah, I'll trade, what do you want? I know we should be doing any trading on another section of the board, but do you have an email address I can contact you at?

 

[Pax]

Feh.

I think it sucks that they're going the "collectible miniatures trading game" model with them. I'd buy 'em in a heartbeat, if I knew what I was buying. But as a crapshoot?

Feh. I'm short of the money to buy all the BOOKS I want, let alone gambling on wether or not I get the right miniatures. bah.

 

[Fenris]

Feh.

I think it sucks that they're going the "collectible miniatures trading game" model with them. I'd buy 'em in a heartbeat, if I knew what I was buying. But as a crapshoot?

Feh. I'm short of the money to buy all the BOOKS I want, let alone gambling on wether or not I get the right miniatures. bah.

I am with you Pax. I would buy the mini for my character or even for the encounter I was going to run. But I can't buy them sight unseen.

 

[BigFreekinGoblinoid]

You know, there are addition intervention groups out there...

...

I'm just CRAZY about MATH!!!!!!!! CRAZY I TELL YOU! AHHHAH HAHHAHAH

 

[BigFreekinGoblinoid]

I bought my first WotC "harbringer" plastic minis last week.

MY LGS is selling some of them as singles

I paid $6 for 4 Koa-toas

They are green though...

According to the new Underdark book, Koa-toa's are Red when angry, and White when scared. So are mine "envious", or what?

 

[Simplicity]

Basically, using my knowledge of how many miniatures were in a case, as well as the rarity of miniatures included, I figured that there would be, on average, the following chance of any particular miniature in a case:

Rare: 0.59

Uncommon: 1.45

Common: 3.2

That translates into 59% chance for any particular rare, 1 miniature and 45% chance of a second for each uncommon, and 3 miniatures and a 20% chance for a fourth of each common.

I can tell just by looking at this that your numbers are off. Probability is never greater than 1. You could buy a hundred cases and there's still a chance you'll never get a Troll.

A case contains 16 boosters. There are 27 rares. 1 rare per booster.
Chance of getting a particular miniature in a case is not 16/27. That's
only if all of the rares were guaranteed to be different. The real chance of getting a miniature you want is 1 - (26/27)^16 (Or 1 - (the chance you don't get the rare 16 times). This gives you a 45% chance of getting that 1 rare you want in a case.

There are 33 uncommons. 3 uncommons per booster. All of the uncommons
in a booster are different. Chance of not getting a particular common in a booster is 30/33. Chance of getting a common miniature you want in a case is 1 - (30/33)^16 = 78%. Note, that there's a decent chance you won't
get all of the commons in a case. (assuming the gnoll distribution isn't screwed up...).

There are 20 commons. 4 different commons per booster. Chance of not getting a particular miniature in a booster: 16/20. Chance of getting a
particular common in a case is 1 - (16/20)^16 = 97%. You're almost assured
that you will get all of the commons at least.

 

[JavaApp]

I can tell just by looking at this that your numbers are off. Probability is never greater than 1. You could buy a hundred cases and there's still a chance you'll never get a Troll.

This gives you a 45% chance of getting that 1 rare you want in a case.

Chance of getting a common miniature you want in a case is 1 - (30/33)^16 = 78%.

Chance of getting a particular common in a case is 1 - (16/20)^16 = 97%. You're almost assured that you will get all of the commons at least.

The above quote was edited.

You are quite correct in your math, and in your statement that the percentage chance I give to get any one miniature is mathmatically incorrect. However, I should point out that I am mainly concerned with how many miniatures of each type per case I would be getting. For those purposes, you can see that my math was in fact close to the target. If I used your figures in my spreadsheet, I would be underestimating the amount of miniatures that I would be getting per case.

For example, if was not such a big spender, and I wanted 10 Kuo-Toa for Underdark campaign, by checking my spreadsheet you could guess that it would take about three cases to get close to the amount I needed.

If I used your figures instead, I would have expected to have to buy 9 cases instead of three.

JavaApp