Mythmere said:
I'd say the optimal strategy is the boxed set of basic rules. A few monsters, easier combat, only a few feats and skills. Enough to make a character creatable in a half hour or less (for a novice, I mean), and enough to let a kid learn the rules FAST so that he can start playing. Then you rely on the broader options to bring the new player into the core-book level of the game; new powers for my character? Rock on! New monsters to throw at the players? Rock on!
Unfortunately, WOTC has tried a similar marketing scheme with Magic: the Gathering, and to my knowledge it failed miserably. I've taught more than 50 people to play Magic, and everyone I've ever known to play the game played because a friend taught them how to play. I've only known one person who bought the "Starter Pack" that came with pre-made decks, a CD-ROM for rules/turn demonstration, etc.: that was my sister, and I'm still correcting her on rules. I think that the barrier to play can only be overcome by education/demonstration, or by extremely intelligent individuals--which the populace is not.
Carry that over to D&D where the rules are FAR more complex, fullfilling the need for quality players (especilly the DM) is more difficult, and you'll have people who'll buy the box set then after an hour throw it in a closet and say for the rest of their lives that, "Yeah, I tried DnD. It was so stupid. All this talk about rolling a D-20 and adding a modifier because of this or that. It was pointless. I know a couple of guys who play, but I think they're just wasting their time. I mean, if I want fantasy, Everquest is AWESOME! But really, I think I'll just stick with Halo. At leas it makes sense."
I, too, was first attracted to roleplaying through CYOA books. That and the fact that I was absolutely forbidden to touch them by my parents made it something that I knew I would eventually play.
As far as too many products keeping people from buying everything, I know this to be true. I haven't bought anything besides the Core Rules, the Forgotten realms Campaign setting, and Faiths and Pantheons. When I go to my local gaming store, I'm inundated with choices, and I never know if a book is going to be worth the 40 bucks I'm about to drop on it. Changing the Art every year is a disaestrous idea, regardless of wheter or not the text was changed. Ted Kaczynski argued that the multitude of choices of a modern society caused people to withdraw inside themselves and not want to venture out for fear of making the wrong choice. The same is VERY true here. I don't want to waste 10% of my weekly income on a crap book. If I do, I'll probably not purchase anything for a long time. The market is already glutted. The only advantage I see to this is a price decline. The demand has withdrawn and the supply is overstocked. (Gods, I love capitalism!)
Just my two denars,
Sparxmith