Decline of RPG sales

[Desdichado]

JD: I hope the check arrived okay. Let me know if it bounces, alright?

All I really wanted was for you to use your influence at Adamant to score me a free copy of that Mars book they're working on...

 

[Graf]

2. Residual ".5" edition revision negativity. While 3.5 is an improvement, I know many 3.0 players who refused to switch, and others who are wary of buying 3.5 lest 3.75 come out next year.

I think the only peopel who have "residual 3.5 negativity" are people who are part of the book writing industry.
The vast majority of players happily adopted 3.5 and its improvements in gameplay and moved on.

Practically speaking the hobby is doing fine. A lot of smaller poor quality publishers are going out of business. A lot of other publishers find themselves nosing back toward the center (i.e. Monte Cook returning to DnD publishing with the new Ptolus book).
There was expansion, now there is contraction, then there will be expansion again.

I tend to think that the expansion this time around with probably center around WotC more than it did last time as they have finally gotten out of a defensive position and started to play aggressively enough to produce some more creative products.
Green Ronin is good for them. And Mr. Ryan's OGL system has forced Wizards to compete on quality for the first time ever.

And if you're the next Keith Baker you can get your ideas out to the masses with PDFs and either launch your own company or (more likely) get picked up by a competitor.

People, including Wizards, need to do a better job editing. But that's always the case.

 

[zorlag]

I think people who are talking about financial situation influencing rpg market the most are right. This is especially true in USA. More and more citizens are drowning in debt, inflation is desperately covered by trickery in government statistics but still you can see prices rising despite of "core rate" (which is absurd way of reporting small part of the inflation as real inflation) percentage being fairly low. Although people often think inflation is same as prices rising, it's just a symptom. Real cause is inflation of the money supply, which happens through bank loans and the like. Federal reserve has been on print and let government spend - binge for a long time and game is just about up. Another reason is that good paying middle class jobs are moving overseas (manifacturing and some design jobs) and are replaced by low-wage sales jobs or nothing at all.

www.financialsense.com is very good site if you want to stay up on what's going on behind the scenes of real life, and who's literally stealing from your vallet everyday because they print and lend more money on the markets.

 

[Dinkeldog]

Please do not make this a discussion about politics in the real world.

 

[philreed]

Interestingly, board gamaes are again on the rise.

I think this is because that while CRPGs can easily replace tabletop RPGs (for most people and, in fact, draw a crowd that would never touch a tabletop rpg), the computer still can't defeat the joy of playing with a well-produced boardgame. I mean, boardgames are social, some of the best are packed with fun toys, and pretty much everyone in the US has played a boardgame at least once in their life.

 

[zorlag]

Board games are easier to approach than pure RPG's. Not everyone can visualize situations in their head comfortably. And board-games don't have "stigma" of geekiness that RPG's still have. And picking up board-game and possibly one add-on is cheaper than buing main books and setting books and then learning all the rules.

Btw, my earlier post doesn't have much to do with politics, it's just pure financial stuff... Stuff that this thread is all about. I don't care about partisan issues at all. Sorry if someone felt offended but truth needs to be said now and then. You won't know anything about small market like RPG market if you don't know what's happening in the upper circles.

 

[WizarDru]

The gamestores that are managing to stay afloat are diversifying away from RPGs and even TCGs. The only TCG that seem to be selling is Magic.

I was under the impression that Pirates was selling very well. I don't know about Rocket Men, but I do see it in various locations. Pirates, however, I see at Toys'R'Us and Target, not just at game stores. Neopets continues to sell decently, afaik, and so does Yu-Gi-Oh, although that's on the decline.

 

[Razuur]

I can't speak for game companies, only as a consumer. I used to spend $75 to $100 on RPG products a month. Now I am lucky if I spend that over 3 to four months. Why?

There is simply less to buy within my tastes. I am not a WOTC purchaser - I purchase all d20 and OGL.

Everytime I walk in the gamestore I find less and less to purchase. Now it is mostly a big book every couple of months (Black Company, WoW, Spycraft, Game of Thrones, etc) There are very few "smaller" titles to purchase from. Many of the game companies that used to release a book every month or three have been diversifying into other gaming systems (not interested al all) so then I am not buying from them.

It is kind of depressing actually. I remember going into the game store and having to "choose" from a more neat products than I could afford. Now, I wander into the games store once a month and see if there is anything there for me.

I just figured that I purchased more than most, and when the companies suffered from others not purchasing, now I am suffering because the companies I love can't afford to produce the product I love any more.

I take it back. It is not kind of depressing - it is depressing.

 

[SBMC]

In simple terms –

With the advent of Open Gaming – the gaming industry changed completely. D20 is still a relatively new market; and like all new markets those that get in it first gain the market share; then bizzilions of others join in (as long as they can get the capital to start up – which does not take much in this case), then those that cannot survive fall off (these hundreds of tiny companies) and what is left are the core competitors that have the products that people want.

Anyone with a business or economics major (or perhaps others) will recall how to create the more complex accounts of the above.

While I don’t follow this market it seems in this case WoTC is the biggest and best; mongoose (with Monte Cook) seems like it might be the #2 (a distant one, but there still).

Think about this – with all the choices and such – would not one go with the tried and proven? WoTC is the original; the proven - if you play D&D you need the WoTC PHB, DMG and MM (at least) and of course WoTC books go best with other WoTC books (with rare exceptions).

Perhaps this is what is driving those record sales referred to above - I myself (and almost all of my fellow gamers I know personally) looked at various non WoTC books here and there and either are unimpressed with the quality or unsure about it; so why spend the money when right next to it I have a similar book with something I know will fit in with what I already have – and been proven to work.

There are a rare few specific books that are the exception to the rule; such as “Magical Medieval Society: Western Europe.” (I forget the publisher – out of print anyways) which is outstanding and pretty much buries its WoTC competitor (for that type of book). And sure WoTC produces some disappointments (I own a couple) but if you actually look at all the stuff out there; MANY of these companies (not all!) produce 90%-100% garbage. WoTC and mongoose are the two that CLEARLY have quality products on the market that people buy regularly.

As far as DnD spreading; actually it is I think (I can’t prove that of course - I am sure someplace the market growth is measured by someone) – people young and old are looking for a way to get out from behind their game cube and socialize. Original TSR gamers kids are getting older; requiring less attention; and they are wanting back into the game (look at the Bboards advertising games and players; lots and lots) – with money – and kids that may very well follow in their parents footsteps (my young kids are showing interest).

Of course the theft of copyrights (i.e. shareware) cuts into sales – but then again nothing beats that actual book in your hands; reading online and reading at the gaming table before the session are two very different experiences.

And for JohnNephew:

I see what your talking about however how long as D&D v3.0 been out? Then v3.5? You are looking at raw numbers and not the entire business scenario.

The decline in sales is actually expected – or should be.

With the v3.0/3.5 - Everyone had to buy the three core books (DM’s more); now they don’t, there was something new in the air: people get excited and buy impulsively, places like Amazon.com have the products at 30% off – so the decline in sales; since the previous numbers were skewed – however you are also not noting that once those “core products” were sold now you have guaranteed some repeat purchases over time as well as lowered the possibility of brand switching. Companies such as WoTC have the staying power to sustain those sales and still turn a profit.

 

[WizarDru]

Btw, my earlier post doesn't have much to do with politics, it's just pure financial stuff... Stuff that this thread is all about. I don't care about partisan issues at all. Sorry if someone felt offended but truth needs to be said now and then. You won't know anything about small market like RPG market if you don't know what's happening in the upper circles.

Perhaps not, but then you'd have been better served not discussing fiscal policy, goverment 'trickery' and money being "stolen" from consumers. The fact of the matter is that there isn't a direct correlation between the economy and RPG spending. If there was, then 3.5 would be a total flop. The consumer confidence index hit an all time low 2 years ago...right when 3.5 debuted. D&D 3.0 came out just as unemployment numbers were really starting to rise. The consumer confidence numbers plummeted earlier this year...which makes it hard to believe that WotC had a great year, if the numbers were directly related.

The fact is that the equation is much more complex than a simple question of market downturns or upturns. I was unemployed through part of 2000 and practically all of 2002, yet now I'm making a better salary than at any time previously in my life. In fact, the market was going gangbusters amidst the bursting of the tech bubble, which one would think would target a higher percentage of D&D players than otherwise. Of course, many D&D players are in high-school or college, where they are immune to the direct effects of the economy on their regular budgets. Older gamers, by contrast, find D&D to be a good entertainment value compared to other options; one of the many reasons that RPG sales don't correlate direclty with the economy.

I think the idea that the market is saturated has much more to do with the downturn in sales (if such is the case) much more than an economic factors.