Did WotC underestimate the Paizo effect on 4E?

[Jeff Wilder]

Would things be different if Paizo had somehow been included in 4e? 4e might have gotten some better adventures, but I'm sure that there would have been other companies willing to step into the OGL market.

I would not have moved on from 3.5 if any company other than Paizo had led the way. (Not even companies I like a huge amount, like Green Ronin.) Paizo's people, production values, and proven track record with 3.5 were all instrumental in me coming along for the ride. (And I believe there are a lot of Pathfinder players who feel similarly.)

In short, another company might have tried to do what Paizo has done. IMO, they would have failed.

That said, my going Pathfinder wasn't a blow to WotC, because I would not have adopted 4E regardless. I just don't like the game. As I did with 2E, I'd have hunkered down and started playing other games (and have, in fact) like Mutants & Masterminds, along with 3.5, waiting to see what 5E looked like.

On the other hand, I think that many or most people who went with Pathfinder might have eventually relented and gone 4E if Pathfinder didn't exist. So while I personally am not a gamer WotC and Paizo are in competition for (with each other), there are many, many gamers who are.

There's no doubt in my mind that WotC created their biggest competition ... though I'm not speculating about just how much competition that is.

 

[Ycore Rixle]

I think WotC underestimated Paizo and overestimated the ability of 4e and the brand to retain current players.

I think the (terribly named) Essentials line is a clear albeit indirect indication of WotC worrying about lost players. Those lost players are still gamers, and judging by sales, anecdotes, internet traffic, and conventions, Paizo has a significant number of those gamers.

I think the idea that WotC and Paizo are not in competition is risible.

I'd write more but... see status.

 

[MichaelSomething]

I imagine Paizo versus WOTC it's like a 4E PC trying to kill a MM1 style solo...

PC: 30 damage! HAHA! Fear my incredible beatdown!
Monster: You know, I have like 600 hp left.
PC: *sigh*

If Paizo really does topple WOTC in some obvious way, we would be the first to know.

 

[NiTessine]

Doesn't Shadowrun have a really new release also? I don't really follow it, but it seems I heard that, and it would certainly make a difference.

The 20th anniversary rulebook was released a year ago. I haven't kept an eye on the game line, either. Catalyst did have an embezzlement scandal during the time period, which might have energised the fanbase into buying more product, but that sounds a bit flimsy as well.

Hell, I have no idea where that came from. Maybe the fourth place and lower are all selling more or less the same and it's a roll of the die on who's gonna be up there during a given reporting period. I don't know.

 

[czak]

If this helps the thread, here is the announcement for Pathfinder RPG:
paizo.com - Paizo / Paizo Blog / Tags / Pathfinder Roleplaying Game

There is also this 30 page poll / request for comments / regular updates about what they'd heard about the gsl thread. It starts in October I think and the last posts are in march where they are still saying they've heard nothing about the GSL.

To add to the pseudo-math - Interesting numbers thrown out by Mr. Mona at the start, 20-30% of wotc's numbers being a wild success. I think you can search the boards here and find quotes from Paizo people saying Pathfinder has been successful beyond their wildest dreams.

paizo.com - Paizo / Messageboards / Paizo Community / Gaming / D&D 4th Edition / Archives / 4.0: PAIZO IS STILL UNDECIDED

 

[JoeGKushner]

SJG, Kenzer and a number of others have proven otherwise. The OGL certainly made things generally less difficult but it has always been possible to directly compete. It's Paizo's overall quality that raises their materials closer to the same weight class and the Internet that helps them market as they do.

I would add that it's not only their use of the internet to market (gasp! $9.99 core books! The sky is falling yet again) but rather, their understanding of the value of story. All of their adventurers take place in the same setting. That setting is supported. It's also a fairly module setting where you can take and choose quite a bit of it.

WoTC decided that wasn't a model that wanted to follow anymore. For those who enjoy the unfolding of a setting from adventurers and sourcebooks, it left them behind. This is a deliberate decesion. You can't blame the fan base for not buying what your not producing.

 

[Perram]

I would add that it's not only their use of the internet to market (gasp! $9.99 core books! The sky is falling yet again) but rather, their understanding of the value of story. All of their adventurers take place in the same setting. That setting is supported. It's also a fairly module setting where you can take and choose quite a bit of it.

WoTC decided that wasn't a model that wanted to follow anymore. For those who enjoy the unfolding of a setting from adventurers and sourcebooks, it left them behind. This is a deliberate decesion. You can't blame the fan base for not buying what your not producing.

There is a lot of truth in this, at least for me.

The main reason I even gave Pathfinder a look was because of their setting, which I thought was rather amazing.

 

[Hunter In Darkness]

The 20th anniversary rulebook was released a year ago. I haven't kept an eye on the game line, either. Catalyst did have an embezzlement scandal during the time period, which might have energised the fanbase into buying more product, but that sounds a bit flimsy as well.

Hell, I have no idea where that came from. Maybe the fourth place and lower are all selling more or less the same and it's a roll of the die on who's gonna be up there during a given reporting period. I don't know.

Unlike Wod, shadowrun has had steady releases for a while now. Other then that one money issue they have been reliable and steady in getting stuff out, also keep in mind they also have an active organized play campaign as well called shadowrun Missions

So yeah I do buy that they are outselling Wod.

 

[El Mahdi]

I imagine Paizo versus WOTC it's like a 4E PC trying to kill a MM1 style solo...

PC: 30 damage! HAHA! Fear my incredible beatdown!
Monster: You know, I have like 600 hp left.
PC: *sigh*

If Paizo really does topple WOTC in some obvious way, we would be the first to know.

True...but even at 30 HP a hit, it can still be done. Won't happen quickly, but it can still happen.

Of course though, it all depends on whether the Monster starts hitting back...

 

[Jack99]

There is also this 30 page poll / request for comments / regular updates about what they'd heard about the gsl thread. It starts in October I think and the last posts are in march where they are still saying they've heard nothing about the GSL.

To add to the pseudo-math - Interesting numbers thrown out by Mr. Mona at the start, 20-30% of wotc's numbers being a wild success. I think you can search the boards here and find quotes from Paizo people saying Pathfinder has been successful beyond their wildest dreams.

paizo.com - Paizo / Messageboards / Paizo Community / Gaming / D&D 4th Edition / Archives / 4.0: PAIZO IS STILL UNDECIDED

If Mona has access to current WotC numbers, I would be a bit surprised. Sure, they are friends, but I am pretty sure any WotC employee sharing those numbers is risking his job. Of course, anything can happen after a couple or 10 beers