Did WotC underestimate the Paizo effect on 4E?

[Wicht]

Unlike Wod, shadowrun has had steady releases for a while now. Other then that one money issue they have been reliable and steady in getting stuff out, also keep in mind they also have an active organized play campaign as well called shadowrun Missions

So yeah I do buy that they are outselling Wod.

Last time I went into my local Books A Million there was 4e, Pathfinder, Dark Heresy, WFRP, and Mouse Guard. I don't remember seeing Shadow Run, but the WoD books have been pretty thin in the last year. Dark Heresy and Pathfinder were the main alternatives to 4e on the shelf iirc. I can well believe though that WoD is not a major seller right now.

 

[Herschel]

You gotta remember that competition usually starts little--remember when WoTC was a small little company that once had to worry about TSR?

And Iron Crown, and......there's always been competition.

 

[JohnRTroy]

And Iron Crown, and......there's always been competition.

I'm not sure if that's to confirm what I said or to argue against.

I never said that there wasn't competition, just that sometimes the unexpected happens. WoTC used to be a little fish, then they purchased TSR lock-stock-and barrel. Stuff like that could happen again.

 

[czak]

If Mona has access to current WotC numbers, I would be a bit surprised. Sure, they are friends, but I am pretty sure any WotC employee sharing those numbers is risking his job. Of course, anything can happen after a couple or 10 beers

Well he said that back in 2007 so I'm sure he's not talking current numbers. But given where they all used to work they probably have a good idea of numbers from the 3rd edition and they know the TSR numbers better than anyone. (for ex things like this: http://paizo.com/paizo/messageboard...tReprintingCoreDungeonsDragonsBooks&page=2#52
http://paizo.com/paizo/messageboard...abilityAsAGameSystem&page=3&source=search#103)

In any event even roughly 20-30% of D&D's sales based on 3rd ed #s is a lot

 

[AllisterH]

Paizo purchasing WOTC?

Maybe if WOTC was an independent company and ONLY sold D&D.

But Hasbro as a company DOES NOT sell off assets. Especially one with the brand-name of D&D.

Remember, even though there may be only a couple of million TTRPG players (ALL games from PF to Shadowrun) in the US (maybe double that number worldwide), the actual "brand" is MUCH more well known.

IIRC, when WOTC paid a few million to do the surveys (apparenty, a well done survey isnt cheap), D&D _IS_ WOTC's best known property. Something like 1 in 4 adults have at LEAST heard about D&D and a 1/3 knew at least something about it even if it was something silly like "that game where you play elves".

Even though M:TG and Duelmasters absolutely crush D&D in sales, D&D beats them hands down in terms of "branding".

No way, no how does Hasbro let go of that. Even if they shelf it for a few years (which Hasbro has done before see both Transformers and GI Joe), no chance of the actually selling it.

 

[Desdichado]

I would not be surprised to learn that Paizo has jumped from owning about 5% of the RPG market to somewhere between 25 and 40%.

I would.

 

[JohnRTroy]

Oh, I didn't want to imply that Paizo could buy D&D. WoTC happened during a time before major corporate investment occured with any gaming property.

But maybe at some point one of these guys might beat the market share, or get a significant share.

And if Hasbro does decide to shelve it, who might be one of the few posed to take over the hole in the market the lack of D&D?

 

[ggroy]

And if Hasbro does decide to shelve it, who might be one of the few posed to take over the hole in the market the lack of D&D?

World of Warcraft?

 

[Jack99]

Well he said that back in 2007 so I'm sure he's not talking current numbers. But given where they all used to work they probably have a good idea of numbers from the 3rd edition and they know the TSR numbers better than anyone. (for ex things like this: http://paizo.com/paizo/messageboard...tReprintingCoreDungeonsDragonsBooks&page=2#52
paizo.com - Paizo / Messageboards / Paizo Publishing / Older Products / Pathfinder RPG Prerelease Discussion / Alpha Playtest Feedback / General Discussion / Archives / Pathfinder's survivability as a game system)

In any event even roughly 20-30% of D&D's sales based on 3rd ed #s is a lot

Yes, it is indeed. I am not sure you can do the math on the two comments, but it is definitely a possibility.

TBH, I am personally beyond caring. I like 4e, but I also like Paizo's AP's and Golarion. If Paizo has gained enough following to be almost as big, just as big, or even bigger than WotC, that's cool with me, as long as both companies continue to produce products with the current quality. I am the winner here

 

[crazy_cat]

If Paizo has gained enough following to be almost as big, just as big, or even bigger than WotC, that's cool with me, as long as both companies continue to produce products with the current quality. I am the winner here

Now this I can agree with - personally i don't like 4e but as lots of other people do like it I've got no particular desire to see WOTC fail.