Jasperak
Adventurer
I see your point. But do you honestly think the number of people who would be happy to have only the heroic tier rules would outnumber the people who get shafted when trying to run paragon or epic campaigns?
Besides, I just don't see anything wrong with a constantly-expanding core game. We want this game to get better and more diverse, without the problems that previous additions have fallen into (if you consider them problems, even...that's debatable as well.)
I would respond to your first question like this:
1. How many groups will play heroic levels over the next year.
2. How many groups will need rules for paragon levels over the next year.
3. How many groups will need rules for epic levels over the next year.
I think the majority of play will occur in the heroic levels for the first year. I would expect some play to occur in the paragon tier, but I doubt there would be any meaningful numbers of people playing epic levels in the first year. I wish I could remember what WOTC said about how fast groups should gain levels. That may help me understand why they made the choices they did.
If I were building the game, I would have set the default time to gain paragon to match how long it would take for me to come out with paragon rules, in this case one year.
I would want to see the game get better as time goes on but there seems that some are turned off by lack of options in the core rules. Add to that the core rules set the power level that all else must match up with. WOTC has limited themselves to what paragon level and epic levels can do. If they don't keep the rules and powers balanced, then we have the power creep that I expect. Some people are already complaining about how similar all of the class seem (Debatable, but it is the perception that matters for my argument), and we are locked into the power level for everything. WOTC can only reskin powers so much.
Another poster brought up the question how to add new heroic rules when your group in the paragon tier. The next logic question is what good is 1/3 of the PH2 or MM2 when you have already passed the heroic tier.
I am going to be brave and use an MMO analogy. DDO has not been a smashing success although it seems to be holding water for now. The vast majority of the base seems to be maxed out in levels. I think it is MOD 8 that is coming out very shortly, and it is showcasing the New Player Experience. Um, the people that are left don't need that and I haven't seen any advertising to bring new players in. So what good is all of that work. I feel the same way about 4e. Fully 1/3 of the material I wouldn't expect to use within a year and 1/3 of it never.
You can make the case for including a taste of paragon, but epic, I don't think so. I would have much rathered they fill out the lower levels than include rules that I think most wouldn't need for some time. I see that because of their design choice they are stuck with power creep or sameness.