Maxperson
Morkus from Orkus
Someone can be a forward observer but not notice anything because (eg) he's drunk.
Incorrect. Someone can be assigned to be a forward observer, but fail and not be an observer because he is drunk.
Someone can be in an observation balloon yet not notice anything because (eg) it's camouflaged.
True. An observation balloon is intended to allow observing(direct sight of things). Being inside an observation balloon does not make you an observer. Actually observing things does.
"To observe" can mean to see, or to look at. It can also mean "to watch". That is to say, it has both a transitive and an intransitive use. And "observer" is cognate. It can mean a viewer or a watcher. And a watcher can fail. Eg not all bird watchers see the birds. Not all those who are watching for the enemy notice them, because sometimes the enemy sneak past ("They got right past the observation post!" I doesn't cease to be an observation post because the observers in it aren't very good.)
To watch, as in to see. Not, to try and watch for. A watcher who has failed is not an observer. A watcher who succeeds at watching, is.
You are making claims about usage that are not borne out neither by dictionary meanings (eg you are completely disregarding the intransitive use of "observe") nor by native-speaker intuitions about a range of acceptable cases.
Find a dictionary definition that says you can observe something without seeing it, because these don't say that.
http://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/observe
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/observe - note that this one talks about the intransitive verb as "to take note AND to make observations", not to hope you see something.
https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/observe