Quickleaf
Legend
I've always found that when I DM, I always under estimate the fear that the players feel in encounters. For years I would struggle to make sure that every moment pushed the players to their limits (mostly the 4e years). Now, I realize that sometimes by describing the situation differently, or surprising the players with attackers or traps and attackers, by using terrain to the monsters advantage, or by having monsters do hit and run tactics, using spells and area of effect attacks in addition to ranged or melee attacks, can make even the medium encounters seem more difficult.
I still agree that it would be nice to have a math metric to judge what the encounter will be like, but I am definitely seeing how the variables make a difference, and many times when I think the PCs won more easily than I anticipated, they still say they were scared at moments.
Totally, I feel you. I think in even poising this question, I've come across as some math-fixated encounters-must-balance-out robot, or something. Heh.
As an anecdote along the lines of what you're saying. The creepiest most fear-evoking encounters I've run for my current group have had no combat at all. It was all about evocative description of a compelling scenario, and proper horror storytelling tricks.