I like edition resets. I think every generation of players (and designers) should be able to change the games to fit their tastes and popular zeitgeists.
For example, even if it was somewhat maligned, I think 4E was an important step in the hobby industry. It took a lot of the design and what was popular circa 2005 and tried to put it in D&D.
Conversely, I think the mild edition refreshers (like we're getting with 2024 D&D) isn't as good. It's like when video gamers got the PS4 Pro. It's not a new generation, it doesn't reinvigorate the design space. It's like releasing Monopoly with the thimble replaced with an iPhone.
If we truly want our hobby to die, it's with "evergreen" editions. The design space risks becoming stagnant.
I sense that some will counter with games that have remained very similar, such as the editions of Call of Cthulhu. I like CoC (for short adventures and one-shots, mostly - though I did run a lengthy Masks of Nyarlahotep campaign). It's a very specific game meant to evoke a particular play pattern that hasn't adapted since the 1980s.
If the core D&D experience hadn't changed since the 1980s, we'd all be playing OSR (which is fine, but hardly enough to sustain the industry and playbase of D&D).
Not only has D&D changed since the 1980s, I'd argue it's changed since 2014. In 2014, the design of D&D was to bring back lapsed fans and old-timers (like me). 2024 should be thinking about the fans D&D gained from 2014-2024 and the direction the hobby is going for the next 5-8 years.
What should it look like? (Well, these points are from me, a random middle-aged dude on the Internet who is only a part-time designer. This is based only on what I'm gathering running for teenagers.)
- Gamify background and story - make it more significant to the game
- Speed up advancement to run a full 1-20 level campaign in 9-12 months
- Make classes better able to operate outside their structure (for example, allow *good healing outside of clerics/druids - because every party configuration should be able to accommodate the unique play desires of the group)
- Give good rules for travel and other montage-based encounters (to allow groups to get to the "big scenes" of action and roleplay)
So my prediction of 2024 D&D is that it won't seem "new enough." Newer fans will lose interest and D&D will be considered a "fad." This is what happened with TSR D&D through the 1990s, when it was basically stagnant from 1974-1999. People turned to White Wolf and TSR got bought out by WotC. I can see history repeating itself if we don't have innovation...
(Perhaps that innovation comes with the VTT, online play, etc. That's a possibility. However, for me, I'd rather have a new and improved system with bold, new directions. I already have the 2014 books - I don't need them again with a fresh coat of paint.)