drnuncheon
Explorer
seasong said:Let's assume that 5 in 1,000 people dies per encounter at a CR equal to your level. That's a reasonably low death rate, I think.
With 100,000 adventurers, a total of 6,465 people will die before the population reaches level 2. Another 6,047 people will die before the population reaches level 3. And so on. Assuming adventurers advance at a rate of 1 level per year (which is slow, according to most of the discussions I've been in here on ENWorld), just over 2,000 people will be left alive by the time the human adventurers start having to worry about dying of old age (age 73). Whether they are elves or not.
Of course, not all members of PC classes need be adventurers - and if you're using variants for non-combat XP (as many people do, especially those concerned enough about this topic to post on it) then there's not necessarily the chance of death & dismemberment that there is an in adventurer's lifestyle.
Even those PC-classes that are adventurers or in dangerous situations often won't always be fighting stuff that's equal to their CR. Take an elven fighter whose people have been warring with the orcs. Your average orc is CR 1/2, so if that's what he's facing, he'll slow down in leveling - but he'll also have a greater chance to stay alive, because the more levels he gets, the tougher he is than his average foe. So the mortality rate in that situation would start high and then drop drastically (which is what normally happens in a war anyway).
Adventurers - and their rate of advancement - really are a special case: the tiny subset of people who not only risk their lives, but continually risk their lives against tougher and tougher foes as they reach higher levels of power.
J