Estimating character levels of a population with math

Legend

First Post
The other day, I was having a discussion with one of my players about how many NPCs of each level there would be in a city of 50,000 people. I mulled it over for a while and eventually produced a kludgy, meaningless equation that I felt generated sensible numbers. I was half way done transcribing the numbers into my campaign wiki when I realized that there might be a way to do it that would produce good numbers *and* make sense. Here's what I came up with... If you have any comments, please post them below. Furthermore, if there is any interest, I will post my spreadsheet with my equations on it on RPG Hoard.

First, I divided my population into groups of people. To keep things simple, I assumed that there were 3 groups: commoners, people with NPC classes (skilled workers, mercenaries, nobility, and such), and people with PC classes (adventurers, guild masters, some clergy, etc). For specific locations, there may be different groups, perhaps single classes could form a group, or race/class combinations. How complicated you want to get with this is entirely up to you. The important thing about a group is that if you have X people at some level, then you have X * Y people at one level higher (Y in this case is a percentage value below 100%, so you always have less people per level as the level rises).

Given the percentage of the population each group makes up, and the levelling rate of each group, you can determine how many people of each level there are in each group. For example:

Let's say that commoners make up 80% of my population. Artisans, nobles, and professionals make up anoter 19%. Finally, adventurer types make up the remaining 1%.

Assume that commoners have a 10% level rate, Artisans have a 45% level rate, and adventurers have a 90% level rate.

You end up with a chart that looks something like this:

Commoners:
1 72,000
2 7,200
3 720
4 72
5 7
6 1

NPC Classes:
1 10,450
2 4,703
3 2,116
4 952
5 429
6 193
7 87
8 39
9 18
10 8
11 4
12 2
13 1

Adventurers:
1 114
2 102
3 92
4 83
5 75
6 67
7 60
8 54
9 49
10 44
11 40
12 36
13 32
14 29
15 26
16 23
17 21
18 19
19 17
20 15

The trick to generating these numbers quickly and easily is to let a spreadsheet do it for you. The total population listed above adds up to precisely 100,000. The beauty is that if the numbers don't look right for your campaign, it's trivial to change the group proportions and level rates, and even add new groups of people.

I realize I may have gone way overboard on this, but it's becoming clear to me as my campaign world spans the years that demographics are imporant for maintaining internal consistency, especially for a campaign that centers around a city and may involve wars and such. It took me several hours to come up with all of this, which is why I decided to share it, on the off chance that it might save someone the effort (as well as possibly allow me to refine my calculations).

If anyone is interested in the spreadsheet, let me know and I'll clean it up and post it online, then link it here.

Comments?
 

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I would be interested in the spreadsheet....

Would you by any chance have Gygax' Canting Crew so you can run the numbers on the underworld element as well?

{if not I can dig it out of my closet sometime...}
 

ColonelHardisson

What? Me Worry?
Is this based on the statistics that can be generated using the info on pages 138-139 of the DMG, in the section called "Other NPCs in the Community"?
 

Kragar00

First Post
Several years ago there was an article in Dragon magazine which presented somethink like this.... granted it was for 2e, so it didn't make use of the NPC classes...
However, it basically said that given the assumption that with a world's population with roughly 10% being adventurers, and a leveling rate of 50%, that a 20th level character would be 1 in 1,000,000....
That leveling rate assumed that only 50% either survived or continued to progress in levels.... others may have retired....
With the 3e assumptions, I think that this is probably outdated... especially throwing NPC classes into the mix.... I would guess something similar to what you have, with maybe an increase in the percentage of 'skilled' and adventuring classes and a 75% level rate for adventurers....
 

ColonelHardisson

What? Me Worry?
I'm genuinely asking, not trolling - how does this differ significantly from what's already in the DMG? I'm interested in such stuff, so I'd find a new method of doing this interesting.
 

genshou

First Post
ColonelHardisson said:
Is this based on the statistics that can be generated using the info on pages 138-139 of the DMG, in the section called "Other NPCs in the Community"?
I'm interested in seeing how these stats compare with what's in the DMG.
 

reanjr

First Post
Kragar00 said:
With the 3e assumptions, I think that this is probably outdated... especially throwing NPC classes into the mix.... I would guess something similar to what you have, with maybe an increase in the percentage of 'skilled' and adventuring classes and a 75% level rate for adventurers....

I think the 50% rule (while simplified) is a fairly good estimation. I think back through all the campaigns I've run, alot of characters die/retire/etc. Now some people run "safe" campaigns where PC death is rare and resurrections are provided by your patron, but even under normal assumed D&D norms, 50% sounds pretty reasonable.

Sean Reynolds suggested that each season for a commoner could be considered an encounter. Summer is CR 1/2, Spring and Fall are CR 1, and Winter is CR 2. Assuming an uneventful life, you can easily do the calculations using the XP rewards table. This maxes commoners out at 8th level IIRC.

On a side note, I would love to see a realistic character history for a 20th level Commoner.
 

Glyfair

Explorer
ColonelHardisson said:
Is this based on the statistics that can be generated using the info on pages 138-139 of the DMG, in the section called "Other NPCs in the Community"?

I'm curious myself. I don't know of a spreadsheet that can do the demographics of an area using the DMG recommendations. There is a Demographic Generator based on the Eberron Demographics.

I've been wanting to find one that does the core rules tables so I can compare it with the Eberron ones easily. I thought I remembered one being online a while back, but I can't seem to find it.
 
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Glyfair

Explorer
Whizbang Dustyboots said:
Count me in as one who'd like to see a spreadsheet that works off the DMG community rules.

Well, if someone has the talent, they probably could reverse engineer the Eberron one with the DMG numbers and assumptions.
 

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