It might be impossible for them to track the exact numbers, but they can do the following:
1. Have someone actively looking for torrent downloads.
2. Have someone torrent the books and leave them seeded.
3. Watch to see how many other seeds are out there and how many leeches there are.
4. Monitor their torrent client to see what other IP addresses are involved, contact their ISPs to see who they belong to and put the legal the smackdown on them (RIAA anyone?).
Or they could just go to the torrent sites, look for the specific book (PHB2) and see how many times the torrent has been downloaded. Many torrent sites do track the number of downloads each file has had. In theory, each download equals one person.
Can it be perfectly tracked? No. Impossible.
Can you monitor readily available data and get some sort of an idea of what the ratio is? Yes, definitely.
The reason that this won't make a difference is that someone will just scan the pages, create a new PDF, and make that available where the original PDF used to be. Or maybe there will be another leak from the printer. I think the only way to crack down on pirating is to get the ISPs to block torrenting, which is far from impossible. Unfortunately a lot of people torrent perfectly legal content including MMO clients and other items that the publishers want distributed in this way.
If they did do #2 Seeding it themselves, guess what it's no longer a pirate copy but an official copy as they are the owners of the Copyright.
Not to mention that if the original scan was good enough (i.e. high-resolution), but not OCRed or bookmarked, someone else could just add those things and repost it. We could call it WikiPiracy. User-edited copyright infringement.
WikiPiracy for a win
lol
But really I do my own bookmarking all the time within PDF's, makes it a bit easier navigating. Even adding to existing bookmarks of publishers.
As I read more about this I've come to think that WotC isn't taking a stand against Pirates (capital P). These people we are discussing that will do whatever ever it takes to create these materials. I think they are trying instead to deter people in the vein of the "donation box." That cheap mini padlock an organization uses to seal their donation box won't stop a determined thief. It will dissaude an otherwise honest person from stealing donations. They are seeing too casual an attitude towards theft and how the format they were providing made that easier. They were effectively, in their opinion, leaving the box unlocked. Now they want to find a new "padlock" to help keep honest people honest.
I still think their decision was made and executed poorly. I truly hope they can offer something going forward that will somehow give more value than the pirated versions that will inevitably appear online, thus helping them protect against casual piracy and strengthening their role as industry-leader through revenue and goodwill. I also hope to see world peace before I die. I'm not holding my breath on either front.
Yup locks only keep honest people honest.
But this is a case of the barn's empty better lock the doors so nothing gets out.
Good point. I posted that link simply to respond to the notion that gaining statistically relevant information about illegal downloads was utterly and totally impossible.
Let me clarify: I don't think it's possible to count (screw the word track, it causes to many problems) every illegal download of the PHB2 or any other D&D book. I do think it's possible to get statistically relevant numbers, however.
I think its possible to get a good sampling, a full on accurate count nope.
Since they know the number of PDF's sold that is their static number.
If in their sampling they confirmed 10 illegal downloads to each sale, that is where they can justifibly use the 10:1 pdf ratio. Honestly I expect that number to be on a low end.
Why you ask, simple.
In the thread on "How Long till Arcane Power is Pirated", I looked for it last night. Found it on several servers without using BitTorrent once. Most of the servers were just normal everyday ones that people left unsecured. This took less than 10 minutes of effort.
That doesn't even include the ones that simply copy down to a thumbdrive and pass it around the gaming group for everyone to throw on their laptop.
Weather its a result of just seeing if you can do it, to "nerdrage", to sticking it to the man; the pirating won't stop just because WOTC quits selling official PDF's. Just like with E-Tools & PCGen datasets, those are easily found as well for the "Official" datasets.
And as far as tracking IP address, have fun with it. Using my own house as an example, there are 3 unsecured and 2 secured wireless connections within reach from my Basement, not including my own secured one.
It would be nothing for me to set up connection via neighbor 'A', 'B' or 'C' and BitTorrent all day long to my secondary computer. Than use a Thumbdrive to take the file from that computer to my own. Already in that scenario I have a 4:1 ratio (the original bittorrent copy; the secondary computer downloaded copy; thumbdrive copy; & main computer copy).
Folks who download will continue to do so.
Folks who scan will continue to do so.
Folks who bought official copies, will no longer be able to do so.
Personally I like my dead trees, though I do find PDF's a boon when planning stuff out and have them on my Jumpdrive when I'm on the go.
While I understand WOTC's kneejerk reaction to it, can't say I see the reasoning behind it. It only slows down the pirates a bit, without leaving a legal avenue for those that are willing to pay.
If digital copies get tied to DDI, I'll probably never see a legal copy. Why's that you ask, because I haven't and don't plan on playing 4E anytime soon. If they incorporate past versions into the Character Builder, you would probably see myself and quite a few old timers join the DDI ranks. And by getting us to join the ranks even for the 'one monthers', you might just convince us to try 4E out once or twice convincing us to stay around longer than a month. Heck throw the bone of a 'Official' article on old versions every now and than.
But for Mr Leeds, I do have to say that interview was full of corpspeak. Learn how to talk to your customers, not like they are shareholders but like the customers they are. Honestly how many here would have been tickled by an answer like this.
"Yes, part of the reasoning behind pulling the PDF sales was due to piracy issues. But also due to the fact we have plans in the works about bringing digital sales all in house in effort to combat piracy but maintain our customer base. We are currently exploring possible other digital media to use, and are looking at a possible release in 'xx' quarter of FYxx. This is a tenative estimation currently as we are in the early stages of the study."
Half this arguement could be settled with an answer like that. It tells us nothing of their corporate stragey secrets but lets us know that they are attempting and an estimated timetable with the stimulation it is not finalized.
O well on to other things.
