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The chances to hit on average for Reflex Defenses are nearly identical with Will Defenses (not on any given creature, but overall throughout the MM).
Have you averaged out every monster in the manual? Because other's have and do not agree with you. But the averages are not as important as being able to pick the foes out in a battle that you can hit most easily.
http://www.enworld.org/forum/showthread.php?t=229092
Most combats last more in the neighborhood of 7-12 rounds than 16. Of which I am sure the Wizard is not sitting pumping out CoD into one minion every single action. It's a situational type deal as with all powers. The guys you want to be hitting Ambush on are the big hitters. And as you yourself admitted, some monsters have more than one attack, solo's esp, and the penalty hits all of them until the end of your next turn.I consider 2 auto-damage on 16 attacks for 32 total points of damage (this happens regardless of hit or miss) to be a lot more useful than stopping 1 opponent from attacking back once in 16 of his attacks (on rounds he is attacked by Illusory Ambush), especially considering that CoD will also often drop multiple attacks by auto-dropping minions.
PS. My Wizard PC has Int 20 and Wis 12 for only one point of damage and I still would not take Illusory Ambush because 16 points of damage in 16 attacks (plus minion killing) is vastly preferable to stopping one counterattack one time in 16. Math 101. It's beyond a no brainer for Wizards with Wis 14 or higher. Why gimp yourself?
The math favors attacking Will defense. Especially in the longest battles against the most beefy of creatures that will be the ones standing for many rounds. Getting +3 would be a 15% increase every round when you target the right creatures. It is not the best idea to simply look at a general avg of Will and Reflex. Because you have the option at which defense to attack with different powers. You want to leverage the chances you get to hit the weakest defense. If there happens to be a low Reflex monster in the battle, then you might spend some turns hitting it with a different power. That is the value of being able to target different things.
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