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Your justification for taking Cloud of Daggers (or Magic Missile for range) and Scorching Ray for your two picks is staring you in the face. Reflex is a lot better than Fort, regardless of the PHB suggesting that PCs try to get one of each type. That's what Per Encounter spells are for.
Oops. I should have said my 2nd is Illusory Ambush from the Class Acts article. Here is how it ranks vs CoD.
CoD +2 damage (My Wizard's wis bonus)
I. Ambush +2 or +3 to Hit Will (vs Reflex on average), and -2 to Hit for the enemy.
Even if one were not using the Illusion spells I would be hard pressed to go against Ray of Frost as a 2nd though. It at least has a 'control' option that can affect non-minions to a useful degree. Whereas CoD's version of control is just a zone that does 2 damage. Then you would have 2 spells that just do damage, that is the striker's job. And your at-wills will be used around 80% of the time.
I guess you can debate the worthiness of a zone 1 square in size for making minion's go around it, or killing them 1 at a time, but I just haven't found it very impressive.
If one were only choosing it for its single target damage, it would do on average .5 more damage than Magic Missile for a +2 Wis bonus. If you splurged on a higher Wis, it might get more attractive. Personally, I think a Wizard should not be making decisions based on such tiny damage increases considering what the strikers in the group are putting out.
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