WotC Hasbro selling D&D IP?

[Zardnaar]

Everyone knows the internet is full of toxic negativity a tiny percentage of people pay much attention to what people have to say online. They pay far more attention to what people they know are saying.

All I know is that when 4E came out I was heavily involved with public games. We saw quick growth immediately after release, with a relative handful of old school players not making the switch. But over the course of a couple of years, it just died. The sales of the books reflected that as well (as did the previous couple of editions for that matter), there were decent sales immediately after launch and then it tanked. You don't get that if the internet bogeyman had scared people off.

Basically what I've been saying for years. If 4E sold well it was that initial surge.

Collspsing in two years lines up with what Tweet, Paizo and lots of anecdotes say.

You have to design an edition people are enthusiastic about. 3.0 did have that but social media didn't exist as such.

4E social media was in its infancy they sold a game to sell minis to push around a battle map that no one really wanted. I remember that negative youtube Dragon 4E video it only had 40k views at the time.

4E big failure was it's lack of appeal the negativity flowed from that. They used MMO language as well.

5.5 might get greeted with somewhere between indifference to mildly positive I don't see it provoking a poo storm.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

It's the 1st D&D to launch to positive reception in a mature social media environment.

No other D&D had that factor.

4E launched to a negative reception in an emerging social media environment.

NA to anything earlier.

That's it that's the 5E secret sauce.

5E was more faithful to the lore and more approachable than 3E or 4E.

I think that's actually not a bad summary yeah. Approachability was largely responsible for the positive reception, I would suggest.

 

[Stormonu]

I think if Pathfinder hadn't dropped, a lot more people might have muddled their way through the 4E years, and probably had more forward-facing elements in 5E. Pathfinder gave a huge off-ramp for the unhappy (like me).

I am curious to see how the new books will be received - will folks treat it like 3E to 3.5, or will they treat it more like the '89 2E to the revised 2E books of '95, or perhaps it will be perceived like 4E to Essentials. I'm personally leaning towards the latter, and expecting a fair number to be sold initially but not be different enough to retain interest and eventually diminish interest in the game overall (The fall-off with X-Wing 2 is what I'm sort of expecting to see; it's something I've seen many times over the years with different brands reissuing their core product).

 

[Oofta]

I think if Pathfinder hadn't dropped, a lot more people might have muddled their way through the 4E years, and probably had more forward-facing elements in 5E. Pathfinder gave a huge off-ramp for the unhappy (like me).

I am curious to see how the new books will be received - will folks treat it like 3E to 3.5, or will they treat it more like the '89 2E to the revised 2E books of '95, or perhaps it will be perceived like 4E to Essentials. I'm personally leaning towards the latter, and expecting a fair number to be sold initially but not be different enough to retain interest and eventually diminish interest in the game overall (The fall-off with X-Wing 2 is what I'm sort of expecting to see; it's something I've seen many times over the years with different brands reissuing their core product).

The advantage WOTC has over other TTRPG companies is the money they can spend on surveys and market research. I'm not Nostradamus, so I'm not making any predictions but they have a better chance at a revision that works than many companies. I'm still on the fence about the updates, I'm taking a wait and see attitude.

 

[GreyLord]

The advantage WOTC has over other TTRPG companies is the money they can spend on surveys and market research. I'm not Nostradamus, so I'm not making any predictions but they have a better chance at a revision that works than many companies. I'm still on the fence about the updates, I'm taking a wait and see attitude.

I don't know. I'm not sure how the revision will go over. In the past, history shows that revisions normally do not go better than the original. 2e's revision basically just foretold the end of TSR in the next little while (the Black Book revision of 2e). 4e's revision was also a precursor to the end of that edition (the essentials line).

The most succesful of the revisions would probably be 3.5 and I wouldn't say that revitalized the line so much as just did not kill it.

On the otherhand, too often they move to kill the sacred cow before it is time. 5e is still doing relatively well (compared to other rpgs and other systems at the same lifepoint of their game), so killing it doesn't make a ton of sense to me. At the same time, it could suffer the same problem the Wii-U did. People won't see it as an actual change or anything to spur them on to buy it like they would if it was an actual edition change.

Like anything, it's a risk. I'm not sure how it will turn out. It could be a massive success. I expect it will be more of a minor success that either continues 5e onwards for 3-5 years, or be a precursor to the end in which case Hasbro will want to rush out a new edition in 2-3 years. Either way I expect a bump in sales when it is released. It's what comes about a year later that will probably show how successful it actually is.

 

[Oofta]

I don't know. I'm not sure how the revision will go over. In the past, history shows that revisions normally do not go better than the original. 2e's revision basically just foretold the end of TSR in the next little while (the Black Book revision of 2e). 4e's revision was also a precursor to the end of that edition (the essentials line).

The most succesful of the revisions would probably be 3.5 and I wouldn't say that revitalized the line so much as just did not kill it.

On the otherhand, too often they move to kill the sacred cow before it is time. 5e is still doing relatively well (compared to other rpgs and other systems at the same lifepoint of their game), so killing it doesn't make a ton of sense to me. At the same time, it could suffer the same problem the Wii-U did. People won't see it as an actual change or anything to spur them on to buy it like they would if it was an actual edition change.

Like anything, it's a risk. I'm not sure how it will turn out. It could be a massive success. I expect it will be more of a minor success that either continues 5e onwards for 3-5 years, or be a precursor to the end in which case Hasbro will want to rush out a new edition in 2-3 years. Either way I expect a bump in sales when it is released. It's what comes about a year later that will probably show how successful it actually is.

History has already been broken with 5E's continued sales growth. One of the main reasons for it's success (there are several) is because of the extensive surveys that they did which has been dwarfed by the surveys for the updates. In addition, everything you use now will be compatible with the new stuff which hasn't always been the case.

Again, I'm making no predictions here. If I were a betting man I'd still put my edition on the revision. I think it will continue the success of 5E (although it's bound to plateau at some point if it hasn't already), and who knows how long it will be before the next major revision. Only time will tell.

 

[Zardnaar]

History has already been broken with 5E's continued sales growth. One of the main reasons for it's success (there are several) is because of the extensive surveys that they did which has been dwarfed by the surveys for the updates. In addition, everything you use now will be compatible with the new stuff which hasn't always been the case.

Again, I'm making no predictions here. If I were a betting man I'd still put my edition on the revision. I think it will continue the success of 5E (although it's bound to plateau at some point if it hasn't already), and who knows how long it will be before the next major revision. Only time will tell.

I'm leaning towards a 1E to 2E transition.

Popular by any measure but not same height as 5E.

VTT though that could crash and burn, be a massive hit or indifference.

5.5 could "flop" and sell about half the amount 5E did and still get more money via VTT.

40% slow decline, 30% indifference, 20% bigger hit, 10% flop. Based on absolutely nothing at all personal opinion only.

 

[Oofta]

We need to set up a betting pool. Not for money, I'm assuming that's not allowed. But whoever makes the closest prediction gets fake internet points with a thumbs up to the post where they placed their bet.

 

[Zardnaar]

We need to set up a betting pool. Not for money, I'm assuming that's not allowed. But whoever makes the closest prediction gets fake internet points with a thumbs up to the post where they placed their bet.

Cant really prove it one way or another. We don't know how many phb 5E has sold for example. There's people here who think the movie was a hit.

VTT it will be more obvious one way or another.

 

[mamba]

Cant really prove it one way or another. We don't know how many phb 5E has sold for example. There's people here who think the movie was a hit.

VTT it will be more obvious one way or another.

We get no DDB numbers, I don't think we are going to get any VTT numbers either. Not sure the VTT will be obvious unless you are expecting a huge jump in WotC profits and them staying basically flat is taken as a sign of the VTT failing