Historical population question

About how many people did there used to be?

I'm thinking about my world, and I'm guestimating how many people live in each country. I vaguely recall hearing statistics that only a few hundred million people were alive in the world until the 16th century or so, but I was hoping the smart folks on the boards here would know more about historical populations than I do. I know about the Magical Medieval Society book, and though I think I was generously given a free copy once, soon thereafter I had to format my computer.

Some questions.
What was the total world population in the 13th century? What about just in Europe, Asia, etc?

How big would a city be? How many big cities would you find in your typical nation, or a large empire?

If you had 40,000 people living in a major city, how many people would likely be living in surrounding lands in the countryside?


As an added bonus, here's something I posted a long time ago, that I still find somewhat entertaining.

On the local CBS station in my home city, every week they publicize a ‘home-town hero,’ someone who is notable for the good deeds they do. Flipping through the DM’s Guide, I decided to figure out just what levels these heroes ought to be. This is the write-up of my home city, of Beaumont, by D&D 3e rules. This could easily be used for any large-sized city, since it seems to fit a fantasy medieval setting better than it does a modern Earth setting.

Metropolis (pop: 125,000+)
GP limit: 100,000 gp
Ready cash available: 625,000,000 gp
Alignment: Lawful Neutral

Non-player Characters by Class:
Adept: (52) Two 17th level, one 16th level, one 14th level, six 8th level, two 7th level, twelve 4th level, four 3rd level, twenty-four 2nd level.
Aristocraft: (30) One 16th level, three 14th level, two 8th level, six 7th level, four 4th level, twelve 3rd level.
Barbarian: (62) One 16th level, three 14th level, two 8th level, six 7th level, four 4th level, twelve 3rd level, thirty-two 1st level.
Bard: (108) Two 17th level, one 16th level, one 14th level, six 8th level, two 7th level, twelve 4th level, four 3rd level, twenty-four 2nd level, fifty-six 1st level.
Cleric: (108) Two 17th level, one 16th level, one 14th level, six 8th level, two 7th level, twelve 4th level, four 3rd level, twenty-four 2nd level, fifty-six 1st level.
Commoner: (60) Four 20th level, eight 11th level, sixteen 5th level, thirty-two 2nd level.
Druid: (108) Two 17th level, one 16th level, one 14th level, six 8th level, two 7th level, twelve 4th level, four 3rd level, twenty-four 2nd level, fifty-six 1st level.
Expert: (60) Four 20th level, eight 11th level, sixteen 5th level, thirty-two 2nd level.
Fighter: (124) One 20th level, one 18th level, two 17th level, two 10th level, two 9th level, four 8th level, four 5th level, twelve 4th level, thirty-two 2nd level, sixty-four 1st level.
Monk: (62) One 16th level, three 14th level, two 8th level, six 7th level, four 4th level, twelve 3rd level, thirty-two 1st level.
Paladin: (62) One 15th level, three 14th level, two 8th level, six 7th level, four 4th level, twelve 3rd level, thirty-two 1st level.
Ranger: (62) One 15th level, three 14th level, two 8th level, six 7th level, four 4th level, twelve 3rd level, thirty-two 1st level.
Rogue: (124) One 20th level, one 18th level, two 17th level, two 10th level, two 9th level, four 8th level, four 5th level, twelve 4th level, thirty-two 2nd level, sixty-four 1st level.
Sorcerer: (62) One 16th level, three 14th level, two 8th level, six 7th level, four 4th level, twelve 3rd level, thirty-two 1st level.
Warrior: (124) One 20th level, one 18th level, two 17th level, two 10th level, two 9th level, four 8th level, four 5th level, twelve 4th level, thirty-two 2nd level, sixty-four 1st level.
Wizard: (62) One 16th level, three 14th level, two 8th level, six 7th level, four 4th level, twelve 3rd level, thirty-two 1st level.

That’s 1270 notable characters, counting only PC classes and those members of NPC classes that are 2nd level or higher. Out of the remaining 123,730 people:
  • 91% (112,594) are 1st level commoners. This includes the adolescents of the community.
  • 5% (6168) are 1st level warriors. This probably includes various thugs and gang members, and beginning members of the police force.
  • 3% (3712) are 1st level experts. Such experts are probably managers of shops, teaching assistants, skilled cooks, and so on.
  • Half a percent (618) are 1st level aristocrats. These rich punks went to the preppy high school that everyone made fun of.
  • And finally, half a percent (618) are 1st level adepts. Imagine people in your neighborhood who tried to teach themselves voodoo or witchcraft. If they ever managed to pull off any spells, they were so minor you never noticed.

In a similar town, most people you’d meet would be commoners, but about one in a thousand would be higher-level. You’d think that you’d have heard of some of these high-level wizards, but apparently they’re all abjurationists who focus on hiding themselves. Many of these high-level “home-town heroes” might not even be heroic, but whatever moral code they espouse, you can be sure they go about most of their business in secret. Are you a home-town hero?
 

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From here

Estimates of World Population
Population in millions
Year Population
BC10000 4
BC5000 5
BC1000 50
1AD 170
600 200
1000 265
1500 425
1600 545
1700 610
1800 900
1900 1,625
2000 6,078

So around 1300 I'd estimate 330 million people in the world, concentrated in asia, north africa and europe...

AR
 



Hrm. Using that website's guidelines, one nation I was working on went from 500,000 people to 8 million. Heh. Time for me to work on other nations.
 


We've got one large Empire on this continent, the Ragesian Empire, and it has conquered or annexed all the other nations. There are several major areas.
  • Upper Ragesia. Population 10 million. This place is a little unusual, since it receives most of its trade via teleportation, so the cities are larger than usual. The capitol, Kequalak City, has a population of 400,000 people. The next largest city, Ragos, has 89,000. Muldera has 70,000. Rutoll 64,000. Westgate (Ocha tal-Obuil) has 45,000. Kalterra is much smaller, at only 15,000. We'll estimate that, all told, about 700 thousand people live in urban settlements in Upper Ragesia.
  • Lower Ragesia.
  • Dassen.
  • Sindaire.
  • Seren Wildlands.
  • Tundanesti.
  • Innenotdar Fire Forest.
  • Sempas.
  • Leyland.
  • Ostalin.
  • Plains of Wind.
  • Ycengled Phuurst.
  • Vaneljesti Phuurst.
  • Otdar Islands.
  • Crescent Islands.
  • Seaquen.

Now, expanding on Upper Ragesia above, if we only calculate the number of people in urban settlements, and use the DMG advice for levels and classes, we run into a slight problem that the scale tops off at settlements of 25,000 people or so. So we'll use 'metropolis' settlements of 50,000 as a guideline, and just multiply all our results by 14 to determine how many people we need to worry about at high levels. We're only focusing on the top tier folks here. I have a slightly lower level of spellcasters than the core rulebooks assume, but I still have a lot, so I'll just calculate Clerics (for socially-acceptable spellcasters) and Wizards (for more fringe spellcasters), and ignore Bards, Druids, and Sorcerers. I tend to lump them together in my mind anyway.

Since we get four rolls for each metropolis, times 14, that's 56 rolls. So we'll assume we roll ten 1s, ten 2s, etc. for the d6+12 on clerics, and fourteen 1s, fourteen 2s, etc. for the d4+12 of wizards.

That gives me ten 18th level popular spellcasters, ten 16th level unpopular spellcasters. And because we have to use the '2 levels down, twice as many' philosophy, that lets us calculate downward. I have Inquisitors as the main magical law-enforcement, so we'll count them as 'clerics,' while normal common mages who don't work for the state are our 'wizards.'

Ten 18th level inquisitors. I know of only of these that I have in my game, and she's Leska, the Supreme Inquisitor. I need to factor in where these other nine 18th level guys are. Oh, wait, there's High Priestess Danava. She could've been 18th level.
Ten 17th level. I have Kreven and Ursus as 2nd in commands of the Inquisitors. Still missing eight. I mostly figured the rest of the hierarchy would drop significantly, so the next stronger Inquistors I had were 12th level. I apparently missed out on two hundred really nasty spellcasters.
Thirty 16th level.
Thirty 15th level.
Seventy 14th level.
Seventy 13th level.
One hundred forty 12th level.
One hundred forty 11th level.
Two-eighty 10th. Five-sixty 8th. A thousand 6th. Two thousand 4th. About four thousand 2nd. Now, most of these low-level ones are just initiates being trained, or they're actual clerics and not inquisitors.

Well, that was fun. How about this Elvish army that the PCs are hanging around in right now? Who's the big kahuna here? Well, I'll calculate as if the army consists of 50 thousand people, but then I'll ignore all the first levelers, for flavor's sake. True historical armies of Alexander and such had hundreds of thousands of men. Could ten thousand elite Elvish warriors and mages stand up against them?

So we have one 20th level Fighter general, and 3 subordinates at at 18th, 7 at 16th, and 15 at 14th. 30 at 12th, 60 at 10th, 120 at 8th, 250 at 6th, 500 at 4th. That's quite enough for me, so I'll make the Elves all bad-asses, and say we have no one below 3rd level. That's about 2000 warriors, from levels 3 through 20. Figure rogues are a little similar, we have archers/scouts/assassins/spies numbering about 2000 also.

For spellcasters, we'll say one 19th level wizard, three 17th, seven 15th, fifteen 13th, thirty 11th, etc. I dunno, off the top of my head, I'll say a total of 2000 mages, which is fair, because Elves like magic.

Now, we also probably have ~500 paladins, ~500 rangers, monks, etc. Compile the numbers together, knock out a few people because I don't like having lots of super-powerful folks at the top, and we'll say:

  • General Shaaladel, 18th/2nd level Elf fighter/paladin
  • Lady Magus Aurana, 19th level Elf wizard
  • Shalahim, the general's body double, 18th level Elf fighter
  • Nesatal, elite spy, 18th level Elf rogue
  • Efis, commander of the first unit, 17th level Elf ranger
  • Emory, the general's second in command, 17th level Elf fighter
  • Deisolancis, the general's son and commander of the second unit, 16th level Elf fighter
  • Shalosha, the general's daughter and commander of the strike teams, 15th level Elf warrior/mage
  • Corisal, military diviner, 15th level Elf wizard
  • The Sole Palancis, the general's elite guard, consisting of two 12th level rangers, two 12th level rogues, two 12th level wizards, two 12th level fighters, two 12th level clerics, and two 12th level paladins.

Those are the big guns. I'm comfortable having that many high-level characters in one large organization. Below that, I think I'll just say the majority are 6th level or lower, and if I feel the need to introduce someone who's tough but not in charge, he can be between 6th and 12th.

Now that I have this, I feel more secure in how powerful my 12th level party is compared to the Elvish army. There are lots of very strong warriors. 250+ are 6th level, 500+ are 4th level. Attacking them will result in lots of bloodshed. But the upper echelons are not chock full of all the hordes of people the core rulebooks suggest. To me, anyone above 10th level is likely somewhat famous, and anyone above 15th would probably be known outside his own country as someone to be afraid of.

I'm going to make a judgment call, and say that, out of the approximately 100 million people on this continent, one is epic-level, four are 20th level (Leska, Shaaladel, Coaltongue, and Rhuarc, another fifty or so fall into the "damn you're powerful" category of 15th on up, and a thousand or so are 10th and above.

I don't mind having 10,000 4th level spellcasters in my world, or whatever. I figure most people are 2nd to 6th level, and they tend to settle down or get killed off very often if they go above that.

Good thing I have Dreams to scare the PCs. And I mean physical, tangible, scary nightmare dream monsters. They live in the underdark. ;)
 

RangerWickett said:
About how many people did there used to be?

How big would a city be? How many big cities would you find in your typical nation, or a large empire?
Okay, I'll try to answer this question for Central and Western Europe, though not in the 13th century, but around the year 1500. The area is the modern day UK, France, BeNeLux, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary.

There was definitely no city with more than 80,000 inhabitants!
The whole area had two cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants: Paris in France and Gent in Belgium.
There were 19 cities with 20,000 to 50,000 inhabitants: London in England; Avignon, Montpellier, Toulouse, Bordeaux, Rouen, Tournai, Metz and Strasbourg in France; Bruges, Brussels and Antwerpen in Belgium; Cologne, Nuremberg, Augsburg, Magdeburg and Lübeck in Germany; Prague in the Czech Republic; Gdansk in Poland. That's it ;).
There were a few more cities with 10,000 inhabitants and more, but then again, these were not many cities, either. Just as example: in the UK this would only add York and Bristol.

I think this depicts that most fantasy settings are far away from medieval reality ;).
 
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Fantasy settings created by people with no demographics knowledge tend to have too few people for a viable society of the type contemplated - eg medieval feudalism requires a fairly dense interconnection of villages every few miles, with a minimum population density i'd guess somewhere around 10/ square mile, maybe higher (say early medieval northern Britain), and a maximum around 250/square mile (high medieval France). Areas with lower population density will tend to have more self-sufficient clan-structure/tribal or semi-nomadic societies rather than feudal.

Comparing historical populations to modern-day, what's notable is that some areas vary widely over time, eg northern Europe, while some areas have been relatively stable over thousands of years, eg the near-East. Ca 500 BC the Persian Empire in a major centre of world civilisation had a population of around 50 million, not much less than half the modern population of the area, while then-barbaric northern Europe only had ca a million, as opposed to hundreds of millions now. Likewise when medieval England's population was 2 million, France had 25 million, currently both have somewhat over 50 million.

Until the industrial revolution rural populations tended to be 10-20 times urban populations, a bit less in some city-state societies - eg ancient Greece, but those were small cities and the majority of the inhabitants probably still farmed.

I tend to have a 20/80 urban/rural split in my fantasy game, just as I keep my populations towards the lower end of the scale, ca 10-50/square mile. This is a flavour thing.
 


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