TheAuldGrump
First Post
Hopefully Pathfinder Basic is closer to option #2. (For some reason, I actually suspect that it will be. Closest thing to optimism that you are likely to see from me.Pretty much.
Over the years, there have been three paths into D&D:
(1) A set of three hardbacks. (PHB/DMG/MM)
(2) A boxed set containing all the basic rules necessary for play. (OD&D, Holmes, Moldvay, BECMI)
(3) A boxed set or book that's pay-to-preview and tells you to go buy something else. (FirstQuest, FastPlay, every Basic Set and Basic Game since 1991.)
The first seems to work OK, but is extremely expensive and expects the new player to digest hundreds of pages of text before they can start to play.
During the time period where the second sort of product was available, D&D enjoyed massive popularity and mainstream success. According to multiple sources, the top two (or possibly three) versions of D&D ever published were published in this format.
The third sort of product has never sold well. We are now looking at two decades worth of failed products in this vein with something like a dozen different variations.
It's certainly possible that the success of Product Type #2 was entirely coincidental and just happened to correspond to the period of D&D's mainstream success (which I'm not saying wasn't also dependent on a lot of other factors, too). But those products were successful for the better part of two decades before they stopped making them.
But I don't think it takes a genius to give it a shot... just to see what happens, ya know?
And I wouldn't waste any more time on pay-to-preview boxed sets.

I am sorry that WotC wasted this opportunity - I had hopes that Essentials could fill the niche that BECMI fell into. It's a pretty big niche, I think you could fit a truck in there.
The Auld Grump