So, uh, I've been looking through all the exploration hazards and have come to the conclusion that there really isn't any consistency in how they're written up.
For instance, a Cursed Waterway, Fey Glade, and Lifeless Desolation are all 3rd-tier Supernatural hazards. The waterway and glade are CR 11; the desolation is CR 12. If you critically fail on the Cursed Waterway, you're cursed permanently (until the curse is removed) and each PC loses 2d6+1 Supply. If you critically fail on the Fey Glade, you lose 1d4+1 days. If you critically fail on the desolation, you can't take long rests and short rests are 8 hours long. All of these are pretty bad, but they're so different.
So this isn't a bad thing, but it's slightly confusing. AFAICT, the only thing that matters is the check DCs, and that's based on the CR, but there's no real way to assign the CR because, well, there's no apparent consistency in what it means. So I guess I can just assign CR based on what I think it the DCs should be. Which is fine, but, as I said, slightly confusing.