How do you like your probability of success?

[Flatus Maximus]

For a typical encounter, how do you like your odds? My first poll: I have no idea how to do this, so forgive me if I frak it up.

Edit: Allow me to rephrase: For the most fun encounters, what constitutes the most fun odds of success?

 

[megamania]

As a DM I try to mix it up.



Generally I run a few encounters of equal or 1-2 levels lower than the PCs.

Then I mix in one that is 1-2 levels higher

Repeat then bring in a big guy of 2-3 levels higher



Sometimes I toss in something that you just need to run. I give a little bit of XP for these if the PCs recognize and size it up quickly.

 

[Flatus Maximus]

See edit in first post.

 

[Umbran]

Odds of success really don't correlate to fun in my book. What makes an encounter fun is the action, not the chance of success.

I suppose if the chances are so good, or bad, that nothing happens, I wouldn't like it much.

 

[Flatus Maximus]

Odds of success really don't correlate to fun in my book. What makes an encounter fun is the action, not the chance of success.

I suppose if the chances are so good, or bad, that nothing happens, I wouldn't like it much.

Sooo...take that thought one step further. Obviously an auto-win (100%) isn't fun for you, but neither is an auto-TPK (0%). What odds make for the epic fight?

 

[karlindel]

I like the probability of success to vary depending on my actions. A fight that is resolved merely through random chance is not a fun fight for me. A fight which is won through good tactics (or in which retreating is the right choice and the party retreats) is a good fight.

I like for the probability of success in a typical fight to be 80-100%. I'm not particularly interested in the party being unlikely to succeed in most fights, as this leads to the party usually running away, which doesn't fit my idea of heroic adventuring. I like a few fights that the party is unlikely to lose (to show that they are skilled and competent adventurers), a few they are unlikely to win (to give a challenge and demonstrate that there are other powerful creatures around), and most fights falling in between.

 

[Dausuul]

In the ideal encounter, the odds of victory are 100% if the party's tactics are good, and 0% if their tactics are bad.

 

[Dice4Hire]

Assigning odds is too simplistic for me.

I prefer a fight that is winnable, but that requires a bit or work for it. I would not even like 80% chance of success, as that would mean that the game would be, on average, 5 fights long.

Even if it were 95% success, that would still mean that the game is only 20 encounters long

My games last longer than that.

 

[Stormonu]

Not so much for the whole encounter, but I like to have at least a 60% chance of succeeding at an action I try.

The combat odds may be stacked against me, as as long as I don't feel like I'm worthless, I'm having fun.

 

[delericho]

The guys at WoW have done market research on this, and reckoned that a success rate of about 70% was optimal. That seems about right to me.

However, I would think that that's success rate for the adventure, which probably correlates to the 'tough' fights - against the BBEG and/or his most powerful allies. Since these represent the minority of encounters, the success rate for the 'typical' encounter should actually be higher - close to 100% for a rested party who don't do something stupid.

(Ideally, against the BBEG, they should have a 70% chance of success if they're either lucky or skilled. If both, it should shift to close to 100%. If they're neither lucky nor skilled, then the rate should drop to no higher than 50%, while if they're actively bad then the rate should be close to 0%.)

Of course, all of this discussion is strictly "behind the scenes" stuff. One thing I absolutely don't want is for these probabilities becoming visible to me as a player, and while the DM can and should be giving some thought to this, he should probably never mention it to the players.