How often should a Ftr 7 hit a CR 7 opponent?

[Nail]

Generally speaking, I would say that the Fighter's best attack should hit 75-80% of the time against a level appropriate opponent for the party.

(nods) I think I agree. 75% (roughly) seems about right.

If so, then it's an easy thing to calculate what the average AC should be for a monster with a given CR. Assuming a standard wealth Ftr (start Str 16) with some (not all!) feats that help her hit, we get attack bonuses that look like this:

Lvl  Atk
 1    +5
 2    +7
 3    +8
 4    +9
 5   +11
 6   +12
 7   +14
 8   +17
 9   +18
 10  +19
 11  +22
 12  +24
 13  +26
 14  +28
 15  +31
 16  +32
 17  +34
 18  +35
 19  +36
 20  +38

...if all of that's true, then you can calculate the average AC of each CR, given such a Ftr should hit 75% of the time on his first attack:

CR   AC
 1    11
 2    13
 3    14
 4    15
 5    17
 6    18
 7    20
 8    23
 9    24
 10   25
 11   28
 12   30
 13   32
 14   34
 15   37
 16   38
 17   40
 18   41
 19   42
 20   44

Interesting.

 

[Brother MacLaren]

So aside from circumstantial bonuses (flanking, charging, and of course boosted Inspire Courage), the fighter's NORMAL attack bonus is about 2*level after the first few levels.

 

[Nail]

True!

BTW, I'd be happy to see other people try this, so I can compare my numbers. The tricky part is accounting for mid- to high-level feats and magic items. (I assumed standard wealth, and that the Ftr could buy whatever he wanted and could afford.)

 

[Quartz]

I don't find Nail's values believable. For a start, the value at first level should be +4 (+3 Str, +1 Focus); I expect Nail's including the bonus from Bless, but that's not reasonable at that level. And +44 at L20 is optimistic, though not by much, and highly dependent on magic.

 

[IanB]

Your high level attack bonuses are higher than what I've seen through play in our groups, but typically our games do not have the option of Total Gear Optimization. To a large extent characters get stuck with what they find.

In general it seems like what people expect the average attack bonuses and ACs for characters to be on these forums are noticeably higher than what my groups have experienced.

 

[IanB]

I don't find Nail's values believable. For a start, the value at first level should be +4 (+3 Str, +1 Focus); I expect Nail's including the bonus from Bless, but that's not reasonable at that level. And +44 at L20 is optimistic, though not by much, and highly dependent on magic.

Actually I am pretty sure he's including the +1 BAB that a first level fighter has.

 

[Delta]

If so, then it's an easy thing to calculate what the average AC should be for a monster with a given CR. Assuming a standard wealth Ftr (start Str 16) with some (not all!) feats that help her hit, we get attack bonuses that look like this:

I'll just say that I use the 3.0 DMG stock statistics for purposes like these. (Yes, they're not PC wealth; yes, they're core only, etc.; I still use them as a simple baseline.) I'll point out that regarding your attack bonus numbers, for levels 1-6 they're within 1 point; from levels 7-10 they rapidly diverge by 2-4 points; from levels 11-20 they're 4 or 5 points different.

I would call that close enough, with the interesting point of divergence at the 7-10 level area. However, I'm not sure that the game is designed with a flat success chance; it seems the norm to have an an increasing success chance as level goes up.

 

[Ridley's Cohort]

However, I'm not sure that the game is designed with a flat success chance; it seems the norm to have an an increasing success chance as level goes up.

That point is certainly open to debate, isn't it?

It is an interesting intellectual exercise. I think the designers avoided this route because it would leave most non-Fighters in the frustration zone.

FREX ,my 9th level Paladin is in the range of +12 to +20 to hit, depending on how much buffing/boosting he layers on. So he is competitive while fighting evil things, but is going to miss non-evil AC 24 targets a lot.

Without massive buffing, the 3/4 BAB classes are going to have even more trouble hitting.

In fact, I suspect the designers did not want the 3/4 BAB classes feeling like the ACs would leave them in the dust as the character scale up levels, and used these classes as the yardstick. That means that full BAB classes will tend to hit more and more. At 20th the Fighter will easily hit almost anything with his best attack.

 

[Delta]

In fact, I suspect the designers did not want the 3/4 BAB classes feeling like the ACs would leave them in the dust as the character scale up levels, and used these classes as the yardstick.

Not sure if they did that intentionally, but it would certainly make a lot of sense to use that as a baseline.

 

[Quartz]

Actually I am pretty sure he's including the +1 BAB that a first level fighter has.

Where's the slaphead smiley? You are, of course, correct, and therefore so is Nail. And therefore I'm blethering.