D&D 5E I think we can safely say that 5E is a success, but will it lead to a new Golden Era?

[Maggan]

It is still an achievement but try not to get to carried away. I do not think they have sold an entire editions run in a week or two.

True.

But then again, me getting carried away about this isn't hurting anyone.

So I'll just go overboard and say "WOOOT! THIS IS AWESOME! THEY ARE SELLING LOADS OF BOOKS!"

And if it turns out that the reason they hit the number one spot was that everything else sold like pants, well at least I will have had a good feeling about D&D until then.

Win-win for me!

Now back to preparing next session of Kingmaker. Can I convince my players to advance on -REDACTED-? Probably not.

Cheers!

/M

 

[Bluenose]

The evidence that's available, and Amazon don't tell anyone this so it's been derived from studying other sales rankings (Nielsen' Bookscan, mostly) and comparing those sales to what Amazon has in it's rankings, is that you don't really need huge sales to be a bestseller on Amazon. 500 or so per day to get a top-5 ranking on Amazon is a reasonable estimate. There'll be top-sellers which do far more than that, but I can't say whether the PHB would be one of those titles, though I personally have a lot of doubt.

 

[BryonD]

I'm pretty sure @Campbell is referring to the (at least to my eye) ...

I'm not sure how the line "Much of the support I have seen of 5e seems tainted with dislike of 4e, and more importantly for me - it's fans and what they personally value" fits your interpretation.

But ok.

 

[Sadras]

Honestly at this point my only issue is more of a community issue rather than a game issue. Much of the support I have seen of 5e seems tainted with dislike of 4e, and more importantly for me - it's fans and what they personally value. I cannot begin to entertain playing 5e as long as I'm personally seen as a problematic element. I feel like the community that has sprung up here doesn't want me or other players who don't value 90's era role playing as members.

Campbell for what it is worth, I'm probably one of those 90's era players and yes I'm a supporter of 5e. As for the community on Enworld, they pretty relaxed, sure you get the hot potato now and then who raises a pitchfork and prods the other side but that's the exception more than the rule.
Personally I think 4e's contributions to 5e are invaluable, there was a lot learnt, with every edition. Don't let a few hot potatoes sour you.

 

[The Black Ranger]

I don't think it would be 2000 an hour, think about it. That is 48000 per day and it has been in the number 1-3 slot for the last week. 40k per day is 280 000 a week and I do not think they have sold that many. It might spike at 2k on some hours but I would think it is more like several hundred and may not even be that.

It is still an achievement but try not to get to carried away. I do not think they have sold an entire editions run in a week or two.

This.

 

[Feeroper]

The evidence that's available, and Amazon don't tell anyone this so it's been derived from studying other sales rankings (Nielsen' Bookscan, mostly) and comparing those sales to what Amazon has in it's rankings, is that you don't really need huge sales to be a bestseller on Amazon. 500 or so per day to get a top-5 ranking on Amazon is a reasonable estimate. There'll be top-sellers which do far more than that, but I can't say whether the PHB would be one of those titles, though I personally have a lot of doubt.

While I'm not disputing anything you are saying, that is kind of a 'glass is half empty' take on it. I think it is a significant achievement for them.

 

[Gundark]

But so are the esoteric titles of Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association, 6th Edition and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th Edition: DSM-5. In fact, today they are right behind the D&D Player's Handbook. They're undoubtedly spiking right now as the new college academic term is ready to start up, but thousands an hour?

This comment isn't directed necessarily at you Billd91 but a few people have gone DSM-5? Why would tons of people buy this? Obviously it's not that hard to be on the top 10 list. Some context, I work in mental health and addictions and let me tell you that the DSM-5 is what health professionals use to guide their practice. It guides doctors in knowing what medications to prescribe, it helps counsellors to know what interventions to employ and on what level. Doctors, nurses, counsellors, social workers, occupational therapists, psychologists, academics and ANYBODY who works in mental health and addictions in North America will benefit from having having this book. It's feasible that entire teams of professionals would have this book purchased for them by their respective organizations. This population of professionals is significantly larger than the people who play D&D. The DSM-5 was released a while back, however there was a transition period where we still used the DSM-4, however this period is ending soon.

So yeah while the DSM-5 may not be selling "thousands" per hour, it's probably sold loads over time and that's why it's on the list. The fact that D&D is outselling it right now is a big deal.

 

[Mistwell]

That's not how rankings work.

Yes, it is how they work. It's from a lot of data. You think different, then show me your source.

If the #2 slot is 800 per hour, then the #1 slot could be 900 per hour.

It's pretty consistent from the data that it's just as I said it was.

It could be 2000 per hour, but there's no way you can know that from a ranking.

I cannot know the exact number, but I can know that pretty much every big author who has reported their data confirms those number ranges I gave, and one study was also done on it (I think it might have bee one of the Huge Howey author earnings reports). Also for what it is worth, Amazon represents roughly 30% of a books total sale volume on a fairly consistent basis, so national sales can be extrapolated fairly well from an Amazon rank, if you know how to parse the Amazon rank numbers.

The long tail has nice neat statistical properties, but slots #1 and #2 are by definition outliers and are hard to predict.

I am going by consistent reported data.

 

[SkidAce]

I agree that this is an issue.

It is funny how there is this theme that when someone who didn't like 4E in turn doesn't like aan element of 5E that resembles 4E, it is taken to be "because it is like 4E". That is backward. If someone doesn't like an element of game design, they don't like that thing. If they don't like a lot of the things that went into 4E, then it follows that they may very well not like 4E.

It is a very closed-minded attitude.

If I don't like anchovies and Joe's Pizza only sells anchovy pizzas, then I'm not going to like Joe's pizza. If I go to Mike's diner and decline the anchovy omelet, it is because I don't like anchovies. To suggest that the controlling reason I don't want Mike omelet is because I am biased against Joe's is just silly.

very profound...and redolent with extraneous toppings...

 

[prosfilaes]

Yes, it is how they work.

When Amazon says that a book is the #1 best seller, it means that it has sold more books then the #2 best seller. That's what ranking means. That's all you can know.

It's pretty consistent from the data that it's just as I said it was.

Let me point to some numbers we do have.

August 20: #1 Guardians of the Galaxy (2.6 mil) #2 TMNT (2.4 mil)
August 13: #1 Let's Be Cops (5.2 mil) #2 TMNT (5.1 mil)
August 6: #1 Guardians of the Galaxy (8.8 mil) #2 Lucy (1.9 mil)
July 30: #1 Lucy (3.7 mil) #2 Hercules (2.6 mil)

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2014-08-20&order=DESC&p=.htm

See? Sometimes #1 is way out in the lead; sometimes it's narrowly pulling out ahead of the next place.

I can know that pretty much every big author who has reported their data confirms those number ranges I gave,

Which jumps out as a sampling problem right there, especially as they gave you one number instead of the ranking of numbers over the time of the book holding that spot.