D&D 5E I think we can safely say that 5E is a success, but will it lead to a new Golden Era?

[The Black Ranger]

Actually, the most fascinating thing to me about the excellent sales of the 5E PHB is that THEY GAVE THE GAME AWAY FOR FREE with the basic PDF.

There's a case study in there somewhere....

I mean, sure, the SRDs of 3.x and Pathfinder are free as well, but those do not include character generation.

Your not comparing like for like here. The SRD has "tons" more than the basic PDF. It's not a logical comparison.

You can play the full on game of Pathfinder using the SRD, but you can't with the basic PDF.

 

[billd91]

Here are some facts:

1) It is incredibly difficult to get into the top 10 of all bestsellers on Amazon, and getting to #1 is enormously difficult - it's an extraordinary claim to say otherwise, and you're going to need some extraordinary proof to back up that claim;

2) What we are seeing right now represents a spike in sales - but it's a HUGE spike (thousands of sales an hour). It's meaningful. The meaning is not that D&D will outsell everything for all time, but it does mean something good for D&D at least in the short term;

3) PF would LOVE to be #1 in all bestsellers. ANY publisher of any kind would love to be #1 in all bestsellers. Because it represents literally thousands of books being sold per hour. Game stores are physically incapable of selling that many books per hour - there just are not that many game stores left, and they don't carry that level of inventory, to be able to sell thousands of books per hour even in the aggregate across all book stores Now that does not mean that game stores cannot outsell that number over time - they can. But, for the spike in sales going on right now, it's a pretty incredible thing to see. It's unprecedented. No edition of D&D has ever sold this many books in this short a period of time - that doesn't mean they have never sold this many books overall, I am just saying in this short a time span it's never happened, and that is noteworthy;

There's no doubting it's not easy to get into Amazon's top 10 for the All Books category. But some of this is conjecture rather than established fact. Do we know it's thousands of sales per hour? I'm not entirely sure of that. It might be, but it might not be either depending on what else is relatively hot. I again suggest people look at other entries on the list. Sure - To Kill a Mockingbird and The Great Gatsby are on the list. But so are the esoteric titles of Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association, 6th Edition and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th Edition: DSM-5. In fact, today they are right behind the D&D Player's Handbook. They're undoubtedly spiking right now as the new college academic term is ready to start up, but thousands an hour? It gets harder to see that as fact for all cases of being at the top of the heap. If the PH were beating a new release by JK Rowling on the Potterverse, then I'd easily believe thousands per hour. Against the current list, maybe it is - maybe it isn't.

I think it's reasonably safe to say that the 5e PH is selling well right now - like any new release of a D&D Player's Handbook should be expected to sell. But it's hard to put that into a comparison with other editions and hard to translate that into a long term trend. And its even harder to tell how much of the potential market or even desired market is participating. More data is necessary to answer those questions.

 

[Mistwell]

There's no doubting it's not easy to get into Amazon's top 10 for the All Books category. But some of this is conjecture rather than established fact. Do we know it's thousands of sales per hour?

Yes. Estimates vary, but several big authors have posted data showing it's roughly several thousand per hour for the #1 slot, with a lot of variation based on time of day, current trends and competition, etc.. But yes, we know it's in the thousands per hour for #1 as an average, and if you Google around you will find some well known authors that disclose that information.

I'm not entirely sure of that. It might be, but it might not be either depending on what else is relatively hot. I again suggest people look at other entries on the list. Sure - To Kill a Mockingbird and The Great Gatsby are on the list. But so are the esoteric titles of Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association, 6th Edition and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th Edition: DSM-5. In fact, today they are right behind the D&D Player's Handbook. They're undoubtedly spiking right now as the new college academic term is ready to start up, but thousands an hour? It gets harder to see that as fact for all cases of being at the top of the heap.

The confirmed data is only for that #1 slot. I mentioned earlier the known data big authors have mentioned shows those top slows are nearly exponential differences. The #1 slot could be 2000/hour while the #2 slot could be 800 per hour, it can be that big a difference. And then the #3 can be much lower than even that. But as you mentioned, those text books are selling huge because those are bookstores ordering bulk all at once, sometimes for entire regions (like "University of California system").

If the PH were beating a new release by JK Rowling on the Potterverse, then I'd easily believe thousands per hour. Against the current list, maybe it is - maybe it isn't.

It probably is. All the data from known big authors says that's what that slot means, and none of the data is about books up against a Harry Potter level book it's just normal #1 author information. If you know of data which differs from that, I'd like to see it. That #1 slot is pretty well coveted. And, there is LOTS of competition right now for those slots. If I Stay is in theaters right now, with a huge ad campaign behind it. The Percy Jackson author has not one, but two books out right now. Ken Follet has a new book our right now. The Giver is out in theaters right now with a big ad campaign behind it. Outlander is a new hit TV shot grabbing over 5 Million viewers per week right now, and that book is competing in the top 10-15 right now. And then of course you have all those back to school orders. That's a LOT of competition to be beating.

I think it's reasonably safe to say that the 5e PH is selling well right now - like any new release of a D&D Player's Handbook should be expected to sell.

That is a diminishing of an accomplishment. We know that no 4e book ever achieved this, that no PF has ever achieved this, and that ONE 3e book did achieve it (at a time when Amazon was selling fewer books overall, but still it did hit this goal). There is no reason to diminish this accomplishment that I know of. If there is some reason why you want to emphasize "like any new release of a D&D PH should be expected to sell" when knowing that's not been the case in the past, I'd love to hear it.

But it's hard to put that into a comparison with other editions

Why? Why is it hard to compare it to other editions, when other editions were selling first PHB's through Amazon? Seems directly comparable. And we know some got to this goal (one of the 3e books) and others did not (none of the 4e or PF books). How is that not a fair comparison to be making? It doesn't say anything about long term sales, but NOBODY has made a claim as to long term sales from this spike, so I don't think the comparison is threatened by those concerns.

and hard to translate that into a long term trend. And its even harder to tell how much of the potential market or even desired market is participating. More data is necessary to answer those questions.

Good thing nobody in this thread has tried to draw those conclusions from this data. The question is, why did you raise them as if they were being drawn? Why do you want to try and drag people down off being happy that the game they like is at least briefly selling well?

 

[Maggan]

Your not comparing like for like here. The SRD has "tons" more than the basic PDF. It's not a logical comparison.

I think it is a good observation. Even though the format of the digital offerings are different, the fact that WotC puts out a free basic game in PDF means that few sales are due to people having to "buy to check it out". They can download the basic game, and then decide if that was enough to make them buy the game.

I'm sure some sales are lost. I for one is waiting with my purchase because I have checked out the basic game, and although I like it I don't feel a pressing need ... which I might have done had I not downloaded the basic game.

But I am also certain that the download means sales gained, judging from chatter on other message boards.

/M

 

[The Black Ranger]

I think it is a good observation. Even though the format of the digital offerings are different, the fact that WotC puts out a free basic game in PDF means that few sales are due to people having to "buy to check it out". They can download the basic game, and then decide if that was enough to make them buy the game.

I'm sure some sales are lost. I for one is waiting with my purchase because I have checked out the basic game, and although I like it I don't feel a pressing need ... which I might have done had I not downloaded the basic game.

But I am also certain that the download means sales gained, judging from chatter on other message boards.

/M

The basic PDF was a demo and needing to buy the PHB was like going out and buying the whole game. Again, the comparison is not like for like with the SRD. You don't need to buy the books, all you need is the free SRD and off you go.

The

 

[Thunderfoot]

Great post [MENTION=59082]Mercurius[/MENTION] I think you've brought up some valid points, but let me address a couple.

As to the stigma involved - Even those that were the "jocks" in the 80s can't deny the social acceptance of nerd culture; so parents in the 30 to 50 range are much less likely to rely on the "My kid won't be no nerd... (bad English intended)

As a parent of two 20 year olds (the wife and I are in our mid 40s) I can say that we did it the old fashioned way, we birthed more gamers. And as to the "graying" of the hobby, the number of second, third, & even fourth generation players is solid - GenCon (a small but efficient sampling, showed that attendees under the age of 30 were out in droves, and while some were there for other activities, (cosplay, CCGs and anime) the vast majority were hard core gamers of the Table top variety.

I think the growing number of pop-culture stars that are outing themselves as closet geeks, nerds and freaks is helping to ease the stigma (are YOU going to tell Vin Diesel that D&D isn't cool? I didn't think so.) And with the increase in fantasy based shows via TV, movies and even the increase in fantasy literature sales shows the longevity of the hobby is not in question.

I'm unsure of the "millions" playing D&D but if the numbers supporting the number 7 (Numenera) and number 10 (Reaper Bones) Kickstarters of all time are any indication - the fans of the genre are rabidly loyal and in the hundreds of thousands easily. So I think your original question will it go "mainstream", is really one of marketing, not popularity (of course that has some merit too, but not with a good PR firm - lol)

 

[prosfilaes]

The confirmed data is only for that #1 slot. I mentioned earlier the known data big authors have mentioned shows those top slows are nearly exponential differences. The #1 slot could be 2000/hour while the #2 slot could be 800 per hour, it can be that big a difference.

That's not how rankings work. If the #2 slot is 800 per hour, then the #1 slot could be 900 per hour. It could be 2000 per hour, but there's no way you can know that from a ranking. The long tail has nice neat statistical properties, but slots #1 and #2 are by definition outliers and are hard to predict.

 

[Maggan]

The basic PDF was a demo and needing to buy the PHB was like going out and buying the whole game. Again, the comparison is not like for like with the SRD. You don't need to buy the books, all you need is the free SRD and off you go.

The

Yeah. But I wasn't talking about the SRD nor about Pathfinder. My observation was that I think it is a good observation that WotC released a fully playable basic game, and that it doesn't seem to have hurt the sales.

That is all.

/m

 

[Manbearcat]

Emphasis mine... what exactly is "90's era roleplaying"... and before you answer that perhaps think that maybe, just maybe the dislike you sense is because of phrases like that which not only seem snide and dismissive of 5e but also imply (while carefully avoiding actually saying it) alot of negativity about 5e... just saying maybe you're getting back exactly what you're putting out there.

It is funny how there is this theme that when someone who didn't like 4E in turn doesn't like aan element of 5E that resembles 4E, it is taken to be "because it is like 4E". That is backward. If someone doesn't like an element of game design, they don't like that thing. If they don't like a lot of the things that went into 4E, then it follows that they may very well not like 4E.

It is a very closed-minded attitude.

I don't think there's anything particularly different or special about "90's era role playing". Unless there's some property of the period which I'm not recognising it wasn't really that different from any other time, and I've been playing since the 1970s and seen quite a bit that struck me as innovative, but nothing springs out from the 90s as unusual.

I'm pretty sure @Campbell is referring to the (at least to my eye) pretty clearly recognizable RPGing cultural inertia that evolved under AD&D 2e (which separated itself from 1e through it) and VtM. At a system, GMing principles and overall play agenda level, I'd say the type of 90's era roleplaying (and note that he firmly called it roleplaying and didn't dismiss it as something else or "not in the club"):

1) The rules of the game are subordinate to the GM-derived notion of how play is best propelled. If GM surmise is that the product of play is best served by bending or ignoring the rules (this might include fudging dice, suspending action resolution mechanics, or creating the illusion that their outcomes are creating play output rather than the GM's own will), then it follows that those rules should inevitably be bent or ignored.

This is inextricably tied into the next one.

2) Metaplot is not just important, but perhaps as (or more) important as (than) any other facet of play. Preserving it is a worthwhile endeavor (see 1).

3) Metagame mechanics are bad and anathema to roleplaying.

4) Most (or typically all) non-GM metagaming is bad.

I'd say those 4 are probably the big ones. If there is a fifth, it might be "the inclination toward high resolution setting material and expectant fidelity to that canon."


My initial foray into playing was through a hardcore Gamist culture derived from OD&D guys who I watched play 1e and Classic Traveller. I then started GMing games when I was 7 after watching over shoulders and reading the books/mags. In my teens, I definitely felt the weight of those things outlined above as I (a) moved to 2e, (b) was exposed to FR, and (c) was exposed to VtM as a system and to the players (hundreds) who endorsed the approach embedded in 2e and VtM (to the exclusion of others...which just so happened to be my own playstyle and values).

 

[Zardnaar]

I don't think it would be 2000 an hour, think about it. That is 48000 per day and it has been in the number 1-3 slot for the last week. 40k per day is 280 000 a week and I do not think they have sold that many. It might spike at 2k on some hours but I would think it is more like several hundred and may not even be that.

It is still an achievement but try not to get to carried away. I do not think they have sold an entire editions run in a week or two.