D&D 5E I think we can safely say that 5E is a success, but will it lead to a new Golden Era?

[Rygar]

No.
"Spokesperson" could be "Billy from the Mailroom", "Frances the MtG person who overheard something" or "anonymous marketing person trying to generate hype".
And without a link to the original quote, all we have are vaguely remembered phrasings that have grown fuzzy over six years.


Okay, so two products with the PHB were in the top ten: #5 and #3, dividing sales. Together, the sales could arguably have hit #1.
So the 5e PHB has to hover around #1 for at least three days to be comparable to the 4e PHB.

(Nice researching btw. Have some xp.)

Not necessarily true. Amazon ranks are relative not constant. We need to know the sales volume at each specific point in time in order to say that X is comparable to Y. We can say that 5th edition is probably on track to sell a few hundred thousand units, but we can't say definitely, and we can't say whether it is more or less than 4th or 3rd edition. If sales volume for 4th and 3rd edition's stay at #1 was 1,000,000,000 books, 10 minutes at #1 could outsell a month for 5th at that position.

 

[prosfilaes]

And yet #1 is meaningless?

Neither it or the Pathfinder numbers really mean much in the long run. But the Pathfinder numbers certainly don't indicate that Pathfinder is not strong.

Sooner or later it will, but that's not my point, which I've stated repeatedly.

You compared Pathfinder profit to D&D 4 profit. That will never have a connection to their comparable length of staying in print.

Stating that something is not your point doesn't clarify what your point was.

 

[Mistwell]

Also, it's not very hard to make the Amazon top 10 anyway.

So that you know, this comment is spreading on internet gaming circles, being re-posted by people, or referenced by them.

I think you should make it your signature. Own your comment fully - it's an epic statement and you should just let it stand for itself.

 

[DaveMage]

So that you know, this comment is spreading on internet gaming circles, being re-posted by people, or referenced by them.

I think you should make it your signature. Own your comment fully - it's an epic statement and you should just let it stand for itself.

Why just yesterday, I had 5 of the top 10 spots....

If only those darned D&D books hadn't come along....

 

[pemerton]

For almost two years, here, and on other forums, we've been continually reassured that 5E will be a "bust" because it's going to further divide a dwindling tabletop RPG market.

Personally I don't feel that such a claim has been very widespread on ENworld.

It's safe to say there a lot of gamers who hope 5E fails. Or that it at least proves less popular than Pathfinder or 4E. They'll interpret any sales data in the worst possible light, and continue doing so.

Again, I don't really get this feeling. There seem to be some people who express this sort of view, but I don't fell that it is "a lot" - at least on ENworld.

Most of the critical discussion I've seen around 5e is focused on game design and playability - especially but not only class balance - rather than the game's commercial prospects.

(For the sake of clarity - on this thread I've stated that it's too early to judge the success of 5e, but that's not a predictin of a "bust" - it's a statement that it's too early to judge how successful 5e will be.)

 

[Saplatt]

Neither it or the Pathfinder numbers really mean much in the long
run.

In the long run, we're all dead. But 5E is certainly off to a hot start.

Pathfinder numbers certainly don't indicate that Pathfinder is not strong.

I suppose that depends on what you mean by "strong." Are sales strong enough to keep the game in print? Probably. And since that's your primary concern, I'm happy for you.

You compared Pathfinder profit to D&D 4 profit. That will never have a connection to their comparable length of staying in print.

Stating that something is not your point doesn't clarify what your point was.

Okay. One more time. My point is that the 5E sales thus far belie the notion that the only significant audience (consumers of the product) will come from either Pathfinder fans or 4E fans.


Pathfinder has never, at any point in its history, sold as well as the PHB is selling right now. That's a fact, Jack. So 5E's sales can't be explained just by reference to a positive reaction by the Pathfinder
crowd.


The opening salvo of 4E did sell pretty well, but all indications are that sales faded over the next three years to the point where a much smaller company, Paizo, was able to pass it by in sales. For that reason, I don't think 5E's success is based on an appeal to the hardcore 4E crowd. (As if there were ever any doubt about that.)

Therefore, the opening burst in sales is most likely the result of sales to LAPSED customers of D&D, including, perhaps, the group that originally bought into 4E only to discover that they didn't like it or that they became bored with it.


This has nothing to do with any attack on the viability of Paizo as a continuing game company. The whole point is that D&D and Pathfinder can both prosper side by side. In fact, I'll go further and say there's a good chance that Paizo may actually benefit from 5E if it brings enough new and lapsed people into the hobby since some of them will at some point check out Pathfinder, or at least some of its products.

All that said, I do think there are some indications that Pathfinder is nearing a critical point in its cycle.

If you look at the last few hardbacks they've produced, the general trend is that each one seems to sell less at the outset and then drop off faster than the ones before it. The same thing happened in 4E and I suspect the same thing happened in 3.5. It's just a law of diminishing returns, because the more splat books you produce, the more likely it is that some portion of your original audience will decide that they already have enough.


In addition, I suspect there's a little bit of a deterrent effect on new customers who look at a shelf full of resource books and wonder just how big an investment they are going to have to make to get into the game.

 

[prosfilaes]

I suppose that depends on what you mean by "strong." Are sales strong enough to keep the game in print? Probably. And since that's your primary concern, I'm happy for you.

There's no reason for a player to be worried about much more than continuing support and willing players/GMs.

Pathfinder has never, at any point in its history, sold as well as the PHB is selling right now. That's a fact, Jack. So 5E's sales can't be explained just by reference to a positive reaction by the Pathfinder
crowd.

That does not follow; all it shows is that the 5E PHB is selling via Amazon faster then the Pathfinder book, which didn't have the superfast starting sales.

Therefore, the opening burst in sales is most likely the result of sales to LAPSED customers of D&D, including, perhaps, the group that originally bought into 4E only to discover that they didn't like it or that they became bored with it.

There is no way to extrapolate that from the limited information we have. We know that it's been selling fast via Amazon, but we don't have hard sales numbers, much less demographics. I seriously wonder how someone who doesn't game would find out about D&D 5; I would assume that most of the people who bought the 5E PHB are still gamers, who are inspired to buy a new PHB and who may or may not continue after that.

In addition, I suspect there's a little bit of a deterrent effect on new customers who look at a shelf full of resource books and wonder just how big an investment they are going to have to make to get into the game.

Lapsed gamers are going to look at the PHB and wonder just how big an investment they are going to have to make.to get into the game. Gamers know that there's always going to be expansion after expansion. Rebooting the system just reminds them how quickly all those expansions can be made worthless.

 

[The Black Ranger]

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned, but I would say that most of Pathfinders sales come from FLGS and the Paizo site. This would be why you wouldn't see them in the top 10 on Amazon, not to mention the PDFs.

 

[The Black Ranger]

Pathfinder is still alive and presumably making a decent profit, but "strong?"

Amazon ratings: Core Rulebook #3,358 in books. Advanced Class Guide (just days from release): #6,654 in books. Beginner Box: #14,134 in Toys and Games. APG: #14,555 in books. Technology Guide (days from release) #24,931 in books. Emerald Spire: #28,336 in books. Bestiary 1: #25, 817 in books. Ultimate Equipment: #43,870 in books. Gamemastery Guide: #54,402 in books. Mythic Adventures: #72,297 in books.

Forgive me if I'm not awed.

4E is dead and gone, but it probably returned a higher profit during its overall lifespan.

Amazon is not the world's ranking system on books, it ranks books sold through Amazon, not everyone shops at Amazon.

 

[The Black Ranger]

And there we are. Thank you.

Emmmmm no.

To my knowledge usually means you don't fully know. Also, what Mearls means is that most 3rd edition stuff was bought in gaming stores and other book stores. Buying online was not big back then.

I think you are desperately trying to read into it more than what's there.