I'm pretty sure WotC realized how big the lapsed gamer market is. Everything about the design and marketing of 5E speaks to that.
There's no question it's huge: the vast majority of people who ever played D&D never played it again.
But just because the market of 40-somethings who found a basic set under the X-mass tree in 1983 is theoretically huge doesn't mean 5e is going to successfully tap it. The OSR movement has been trying to do so for years. Essentials tried it with a Basic Set that re-cycled that same 'Red Box' cover (the single biggest-selling D&D product ever). 3e's "back to the dungeon" slogan was aimed at old-school players. 2e was barely changed from 1e in the hopes people might like it again.
D&D has been chasing lapsed players ever since the fad ended. You do see some come back every once in a while. Some with 3e, some with 4e, some with Essentials, some with OSR games, some with Pathfinder....
...but a bunch of pre-orders for a deeply-discounted book on Amazon spiking an hourly ranking doesn't indicate 5e's finally brought back the fad from the 80s.
And nowhere did I say or even imply that it did.
My point was that 5E is almost certainly drawing its sales from audiences beyond the Pathfinder fans.
Of course it is. D&D fans, for instance, are almost certainly snapping it up. Afterall, it's been years since any D&D product came out, at all. That's some serious pent-up demand from gamers used to book-a-month publishing.
For almost two years, here, and on other forums, we've been continually reassured that 5E will be a "bust" because it's going to further divide a dwindling tabletop RPG market. The notion was that even if it could "recapture" half of the fans it lost to Pathfinder, it would lose just as many or more fans of 4E, and the net result would be diminished sales.
Unlikely. WotC could count on 4e fans as a virtual captive audience. For one thing, 4e fans necessarily include in their ranks all those loyal fans and early adopters who will always uncritically accept the next edition as the best ever. For another, they have nowhere else to go. 4e can't be cloned legally, and the GSL is so unattractive to 3pps that ongoing support is pretty anemic.
You may have heard (and still hear) 4e fans grousing about that, but that's because it means 5e won't have much cool stuff from 4e, which is an issue for them /because they're likely going to be playing 5e.../
3.5 fans, OTOH, have Pathfinder, and, it seems from hearing them edition warring the whole time, quite the ax to grind with WotC. Expecting to win any of them back is maybe a bit optimistic.
But, edition-war factions aside, it's unlikely D&D is facing anything like the unrealistic revenue goals Hasbro pitched for it in 2006 or 7 (whenever the events of that Dancey alluded to happened). There's no sign of it getting massive resources, for instance, no marketing splash, just farmed-out tools, farmed-out introductory adventures, and a slow pace of publication going forward. Costs are probably very low and 'success' is all but assured, even if the inevitable spike in sales at a new core release doesn't hold up for long.
Really nothing to worry about in that regard. D&D will doubtless be a stable product for a while. Until WotC's CCGs stop making money or it otherwise comes to Hasbro's attention again...
