D&D 5E I think we can safely say that 5E is a success, but will it lead to a new Golden Era?

[Tony Vargas]

Please share with me any data you have that shows that any previous D&D product reached #1 in books at Amazon.

You know those are fleeting rankings. One reason they mean so little. It takes very little to spike for a little while on Amazon, it takes a lot to out-sell something mainstream for a year, if something from D&D makes the top 100 for the year, that'd be something prior D&D products hadn't done. And, it's not like we could make a valid comparison among Amazon rankings for the last 4 editions, since Amazon didn't even exist for all of 'em.


Core books sell bigger than supplements and they sell biggest early, that's the way D&D sells, WotC has come right out and said it. I'm pretty sure TSR was well aware of it, too, and said so. Take it up with them if it bothers you.

5e is currently selling well, which is great, but don't read too much into it. Every new ed has sold well at first, and dropped off later. 5e promises to have a lot fewer releases, and, given the way Amazon and IcV2 put their rankings together, it could easily fall off the top spot on weeks or quarters it has nothing much coming out and someone else (like Paizo's Pathfinder) does. It won't mean much if that does happen - not that it's being rejected or that people have stopped playing it or anything, just that it didn't offer much new to the market in some point in time.

 

[Saplatt]

But it's impossible to know if 3.5, 3.0, or even 2e would have hit those same ranks. We don't know if it's total sales really making 5e a hit, the high prices pushing people to amazon, or just a whole bunch of pre-orders and the rank will drop after release.

Repeat after me. Number. One. In. Books.


The one thing we do know is that Mike Mearls and the Wizards RPG team are doing backflips right about now.

 

[billd91]

Agreed. If this was nothing more than a zero-sum situation between D&D and Pathfinder, the 5E sales would be nowhere near what we're seeing on Amazon.

The PHB is number one in books, for Pete's sake. That number could not have been reached even if every single Pathfinder fan jumped ship (and obviously that's not happening.)

The only explanation is that they are making lots of sales to relapsed fans of various previous editions and some new fans as well.

Don't bet on the explanation. Being #1 on Amazon isn't as difficult as it looks. That's a snapshot of a very limited period in time (something like the last 24 hours). Take a look at what's #3 right now: Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association, 6th Edition. Ooo, must be spellbinding!

The fact of the matter is this ordinal ranking tells us nothing about sales volume or long term trends. It's not a bad sign since it does indicate the current buzz and activity is relatively high - compared to other books on Amazon.

 

[Jester David]

Repeat after me. Number. One. In. Books.


The one thing we do know is that Mike Mearls and the Wizards RPG team are doing backflips right about now.

For this week.

It wasn't #1 a couple weeks ago, because Diana Gabaldon ruled the top 10 with Outlander's premier. Look at the rest of the top 10. Not a lot of new releases. The minute another author of note comes along, the PHB is going to get crushed.
It's like being #1 at the Box Office when you're the only real new release.

Check out the list of the Top 100 books of all of 2014:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014/books/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar
D&D is nowhere on it.

 

[Saplatt]

The fact of the matter is this ordinal ranking tells us nothing about sales
volume ...

You just keep telling yourself that.

 

[Saplatt]

Check out the list of the Top 100 books of all of 2014:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014/books/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar
D&D is nowhere on it.

LOL It's only been out a week.

And, by the way, this is the time of year when high school kids across the country are buying supplies . Look where "To Kill a Mockingbird" and "The Great Gatsby" are ranked.


And it's outselling both of them.

 

[Jester David]

LOL It's only been out a week.

Irrelevant. The chart takes into consideration pre-orders. As can be seen by the MM and DMG being at the top of the .ca chart.

And, by the way, this is the time of year when high school kids across the country are buying supplies . Look where "To Kill a Mockingbird" and "The Great Gatsby" are ranked.

And it's outselling both of them.

Or college kids not buying from the school store. Or libraries/teachers refreshing classroom sets. We can't be sure of numbers.

Is #1 impressive? Yes. But we'll see if it lasts a week there. And we'll see where it is on the chart after a month.
Right now the PHB is coasting on current sales and four months of pre-orders all "selling" at once, boosting its numbers. We'll see how much longevity it has.

 

[prosfilaes]

The PHB is number one in books, for Pete's sake. That number could not have been reached even if every single Pathfinder fan jumped ship (and obviously that's not happening.)

What does the PHB have to do with "jumping ship"? Most Pathfinder players with enough spare money are going to buy the new PHB. It's attracted enough good press and looks good enough that people are buying the PHB; that doesn't mean that people are switching.

 

[Saplatt]

What does the PHB have to do with "jumping ship"? Most Pathfinder players with enough spare money are going to buy the new PHB. It's attracted enough good press and looks good enough that people are buying the PHB; that doesn't mean that people are switching.

And nowhere did I say or even imply that it did.

My point was that 5E is almost certainly drawing its sales from audiences beyond the Pathfinder fans.


For almost two years, here, and on other forums, we've been continually reassured that 5E will be a "bust" because it's going to further divide a dwindling tabletop RPG market. The notion was that even if it could "recapture" half of the fans it lost to Pathfinder, it would lose just as many or more fans of 4E, and the net result would be diminished sales.


Yet, here we are, with the 5E PHB a week into its official release and, by all indications, it's a smash sales success, placing not only in Amazon's top ten in new releases, but the number one spot among all books (at least temporarily.)


No Pathfinder product has ever achieved that. No D&D product has ever achieved that. And what this suggests is that the audience buying these books isn't restricted to current players of 4E or Pathfinder.

What it suggests is that the lapsed gamer market is much larger than anyone realized and that WotC has successfully tapped into a significant portion of it.

 

[Saplatt]

Is #1 impressive? Yes.

It's stunningly impressive.

But we'll see if it lasts a week there. And we'll see where it is on the chart after a month.
Right now the PHB is coasting on current sales and four months of pre-orders all "selling" at once, boosting its numbers. We'll see how much longevity it has.

The same thing could be said of just about any other book. The fact is that it has debuted as Number One, something no tabletop RPG has ever accomplished before.

Sure, we don't know what kind of "legs" it will have, but just like the box office, a strong debut is usually a good indicator. It sure as hell beats the alternative.