ICv2 Reports Disappointing Year For Hobby Games Channel: TTRPGs Down, D&D Declines 30%

According to ICv2, 2023 was a tough year for hobby game sales. The US and Canada market increased by just 1%, which was less than the rate of inflation, growing from $2.86 billion in 2022 to $2.89 billion in 2023.

The hobby game sales channel is defined as specialist game and card stores--it doesn't include Amazon, direct sales, etc. It does include Kickstarter.

Top Hobby Channel TTRPGs (2023)

1. Dungeons & Dragons (WotC)
2. Pathfinder (Paizo)
3. Cyberpunk Red (R. Talsorian)
4. World of Darkness (Renegade Game Studios)
5. Starfinder (Paizo)
6. Warhammer 40K (Cubicle 7)
7. Marvel Multiverse Roleplaying (Marvel)
8. Kobold 5E Books (Kobold Press)
9. Call of Cthulhu (Chaosium)
10. Pirate Borg (Free League)

The only two categories to grow in 2023 were collectibles and miniatures. All other categories--board games, card games, and roleplaying games--were down. ICv2 reports a 30% hobby store sales decline for Dungeons & Dragons specifically, citing the impending new edition and lackluster movie performance, and the tail end of a pandemic-fuelled high; they also report that while the OGL crisis of last year impacted some lifestyle gamers, newer players as a whole were oblivious to the situation. The other important element ICv2 mentioned was D&D's increasing move to digital, which impacted retail sales.

Older D&D players, says ICv2, are also migrating to other games, with Pathfinder as one of the major beneficiaries.

The last 6 years has seen much larger growth rates--partly fuelled by the pandemic--ranging from 10% to 30%. 2022 saw a 7% growth over 2021. Despite the small increase, 2023 represents the 15th year of growth for the overall market. ICv2 does predict a market decline in 2024, though.

ICv2 conducts periodical surveys and speaks to publishers, distributors, and retailers, along with publicly available company information and Kickstarter data.

 

[Dire Bare]

The courts in the 9th circuit said otherwise in the mid 1940's, as the feds set maximum prices during and after WW2. Look up the Office of Price Administration. US NARA Records Group 0188. States and localities can set minimum and maximum prices, or even restrict to MSRP.

That is a weird "Um, actually . . ."

Sure, I suppose states COULD require retailers to charge MSRP or below on luxury items like RPG books, but . . . .

 

[TheSword]

Very interesting thread.

I was surprised to see sales drop so much when 2023 was in truth the most D&D year I’ve seen so far. Five mainline products (Golden Vault Feb, Giants Aug, Phandelver Sept, Planescape Oct, Book of Many Things Nov) plus BG3 full release and the D&D Movie. Sales of products in hobby stores still dropped 30%. Some thoughts I had.

2023 had an extremely back loaded release schedule. So despite more products than normal, many are not going to have major impact in that year. If we look at the previous year it was front loaded (Gift set Jan, Netherdeep March, Monsters of the multi-verse May, Radiant Citadel June, Spelljammer Aug, with only Dragonlance coming out in December). I’m no expect but I suspect products sell
most in stores in their first 6 months of release (core books aside) also unlike online sales I think it’s likely that preorders in you local store where they are effectively just agreeing to hold it for you when it comes in probably don’t count towards official sales figures.

2024 is a bit more balanced with Vecna and Infinite Staircase coming out at the mid point but the core books are very late and they are what will drive sales in 2024 and 2025. Without them it would be a very slow year compared to previous years.

Our group is certainly playing other systems… mainly because I’m evangelizing WFRP 4e. It’s a great system that scratches itches that 5e doesn’t reach. But we’re all still playing 5e as well - and importantly buying 5e products.

I would never go back to Pathfinder. Switching to 5e was the best thing I did. The continuous chasing for mechanical bonus to achieve ever escalating targets is not a fun system for me to DM. It was a pain in the ass to DM to be honest and I felt the mechanics drove the game, rather than what was happening driving the mechanics.

I second (or third) the sentiments about FLGS. When I’m thinking about running a campaign I always buy the digital version first. I don’t want to shell out for a full hardback if I’m not going to run it. If I am, I usually get the Hardback (from Amazon) and the VTT version of there is one. None of which will have impact from local game stores. Digital products and retailers are the future so any prediction of 5e results based on game store sales is almost anecdotal at this point despite what might seem to be reliable data.

I should add that I love gaming stores in principle tbough and will often buy physical items, like minis, dice, terrain, board games etc. the main reason our group has a disgusting amount of plastic minis is because of regular drop ins to our store for a booster set or three. I just don’t think books that are increasingly digital is a great product for them compete on.

Incidentally I can buy Amazon gift cards in my local store. Are D&D beond or Roll20 gift cards a thing?

 

[cranberry]

One way to reduce the cost of books is to buy the .pdf versions instead. I know that probably doesn't sit well with most people here, but it's the quickest and most direct way to reduce spending on TTRPGs.

Or alternatively waiting for a sale or buying the books second hand.

 

[GothmogIV]

30% hobby store sales decline for Dungeons & Dragons and Older D&D players, are also migrating to other games - Yep this 100% makes sense, the peak is over and the fad is dispensing, the foundational fanbase severely alienated and dispersed thanks to mean spirited spite and venom from wotc. This trend will only continue, just wait till "6e" drops, then the real "pain" begins, and rightfully so. How's that "modern audience" working out for you wotc? You could have had it all, new, old and all in-between, 2014 started strong as heck and then over the last few years, absolute awfulness at mach 10.

Preach.

 

[Parmandur]

Most of the people I'm seeing playing at the stores and buying at the stores are college students... but that's largely due to being a college town, with the 61k townies numbering about the same as the major university's 60k, and about 5k at the community college.
And then that, yeah...
Yeah, me too.

Apparently, the overwhelming majority of people buying and playing Magic never even set foot in a FLGS: most cards are sold at grocery or drug stores.

 

[jerryrice4949]

Out of curiosity, why do think of MSRP as a ceiling? Do you think the manufacturer understands the needs of every retail outlet when they make that suggestion? Do you not think that a store understands its own financial needs?

Tell me when you buy a car do you happily pay above MSRP? Would you go to Barnes and Nobles and pay 10-20% more than the price listed on the back? Sure they can charge above MSRP but in any imaginable business that is going to turn off customers. Especially when the product is available discounted somewhere else.

 

[Retreater]

I rarely purchase gaming books from my FLGS - though sometimes they have used or OOP titles at a good price that also allows them to make profit. I get "side" things there - dice, minis, paint, general nerdy gifts.
My tastes in RPG books are too obscure for them to meet. Like, they don't even carry Free League stuff - but they'll have entire shelf of 10+ copies of the latest WotC release or FLGS exclusive PF2 cover (which sit there for months).
The owner is an old buddy of mine from high school. Two guys from my old band work there too. I support them by running events there.

 

[Marc Radle]

Online gaming is the answer. Endless supply of good players.

True, but in-person games have a very different feel. For me, it’s the only way I play.

 

[Zil]

Apparently, the overwhelming majority of people buying and playing Magic never even set foot in a FLGS: most cards are sold at grocery or drug stores.

I have never seen Magic at a grocery or drug store, but it never occurred to me to look for it there. I will have to see what is tucked away in their small book area.

 

[SteveC]

These are some interesting stats. I think what it tells you is how long a shadow WotC casts. There were some great RPGs and board games released last year. The fact that the edition was winding down had a huge effect on the overall numbers. This sort of makes me wonder how useful these metrics are for games other than D&D. No matter the issues with WotC, I suspect there will be big numbers when the next Edition drops. It will be a long year until that happens.