ICv2 Reports Disappointing Year For Hobby Games Channel: TTRPGs Down, D&D Declines 30%

According to ICv2, 2023 was a tough year for hobby game sales. The US and Canada market increased by just 1%, which was less than the rate of inflation, growing from $2.86 billion in 2022 to $2.89 billion in 2023.

The hobby game sales channel is defined as specialist game and card stores--it doesn't include Amazon, direct sales, etc. It does include Kickstarter.

Top Hobby Channel TTRPGs (2023)

1. Dungeons & Dragons (WotC)
2. Pathfinder (Paizo)
3. Cyberpunk Red (R. Talsorian)
4. World of Darkness (Renegade Game Studios)
5. Starfinder (Paizo)
6. Warhammer 40K (Cubicle 7)
7. Marvel Multiverse Roleplaying (Marvel)
8. Kobold 5E Books (Kobold Press)
9. Call of Cthulhu (Chaosium)
10. Pirate Borg (Free League)

The only two categories to grow in 2023 were collectibles and miniatures. All other categories--board games, card games, and roleplaying games--were down. ICv2 reports a 30% hobby store sales decline for Dungeons & Dragons specifically, citing the impending new edition and lackluster movie performance, and the tail end of a pandemic-fuelled high; they also report that while the OGL crisis of last year impacted some lifestyle gamers, newer players as a whole were oblivious to the situation. The other important element ICv2 mentioned was D&D's increasing move to digital, which impacted retail sales.

Older D&D players, says ICv2, are also migrating to other games, with Pathfinder as one of the major beneficiaries.

The last 6 years has seen much larger growth rates--partly fuelled by the pandemic--ranging from 10% to 30%. 2022 saw a 7% growth over 2021. Despite the small increase, 2023 represents the 15th year of growth for the overall market. ICv2 does predict a market decline in 2024, though.

ICv2 conducts periodical surveys and speaks to publishers, distributors, and retailers, along with publicly available company information and Kickstarter data.

 

[Wofano Wotanto]

Baldurs Gate was huge. Honestly I know a lot of folks who are using it to fill the table top itch right now.

More hours of 5e than ever were probably played this year. Just a lot in video game form.

Valid point, although I haven't seen any hard figures on total hours of playtime at physical tables to support it. Not sure how you'd even collect such data, where it's fairly easy to gather with online games (both BG and regular D&D played online).

Certainly doesn't help hobby shop sales, that's for sure.

 

[Reynard]

Baldurs Gate was huge. Honestly I know a lot of folks who are using it to fill the table top itch right now.

More hours of 5e than ever were probably played this year. Just a lot in video game form.

Are they playing BG3 instead of going to their regular D&D games, or are they playing BG3 and wishing they had a regular D&D game?

I am old enough to remember when WoW ate D&D groups by the thousands. I haven't gotten any sense that BG3 is doing that. the opposite, in fact: it appears BG3 is inspiring folks to give tabletop D&D a try.

 

[mamba]

Let's see how "6e" does, sales wise, digital or otherwise. It will be very interesting to see the state of "wotc d&d" in a year or so.

I doubt you get a good picture in a year, unless the 2024 books bomb. With ‘everyone’ updating, they will have a few good years masking any underlying trend imo

 

[Parmandur]

In the past year and a half, WotC rolled out direct sales with digital Beyond access bubdles in. That has probsvly taken a serious bite out of FLGS sales.

 

[Alzrius]

Well clearly this is just ICv2 making a clickbait headline because they hate WotC and can't stop spreading negativity.

 

[Wofano Wotanto]

I haven't gotten any sense that BG3 is doing that. the opposite, in fact: it appears BG3 is inspiring folks to give tabletop D&D a try.

Anecdotally, I think it goes both ways. Some folks certainly use BG as a substitute for D&D online or face to face, but you're right that some BG players get the itch for live D&D as well. Not sure if the balance leans strongly in either direction, but given how much easier BG is when compared to organizing a group I'd guess it's got the edge - but nowhere near the way WoW did once upon a time.

 

[Jer]

In the past year and a half, WotC rolled out direct sales with digital Beyond access bubdles in. That has probsvly taken a serious bite out of FLGS sales.

There's that. And as it says in the article there's a new edition coming so there may be folks who are holding off replacing books they have that are falling apart or buying in at all until the new edition comes out.

But there's also the fact that a large part of the reason that D&D exploded was because there was an untapped market of people who didn't know they wanted to play D&D who got exposed to it and now play it. You can only really grow any market until you hit the point of saturation. Despite what most corporations hope for you cannot infinitely grow your market - there's a finite number of people in the world after all (or in this case, in the US & Canada). So maybe we've just hit that limit and the growth will come only from a steady stream of kids growing old enough to find out about the game and start playing.

This is where Magic the Gathering is a lifeline for hobby stores - everyone who plays it keeps buying new cards even if they have old ones so there's a steady stream of purchasing going on even if new players aren't growing the hobby. With D&D once you buy your PHB you might never need to make another purchase again.

 

[Retreater]

The good news: even with a 30% decline, the hobby is still bigger than I ever imagined in my younger days. More played, more accepted as a hobby, with lots of great choices for products.

 

[Parmandur]

There's that. And as it says in the article there's a new edition coming so there may be folks who are holding off replacing books they have that are falling apart or buying in at all until the new edition comes out.

But there's also the fact that a large part of the reason that D&D exploded was because there was an untapped market of people who didn't know they wanted to play D&D who got exposed to it and now play it. You can only really grow any market until you hit the point of saturation. Despite what most corporations hope for you cannot infinitely grow your market - there's a finite number of people in the world after all (or in this case, in the US & Canada). So maybe we've just hit that limit and the growth will come only from a steady stream of kids growing old enough to find out about the game and start playing.

This is where Magic the Gathering is a lifeline for hobby stores - everyone who plays it keeps buying new cards even if they have old ones so there's a steady stream of purchasing going on even if new players aren't growing the hobby. With D&D once you buy your PHB you might never need to make another purchase again.

But that isn't how the Magic fanbase works: the majority of customers are kids, WotC makes their money by getting new middle schoolers and high schoolers to pick up Magic. The enfranchised players, the people who have been playing for longer than a few years, are a small part of the Magic pie.

 

[Twiggly the Gnome]

Not too surprising. Despite all the hyperventilating about this not being a new edition, the market is still showing the traditional inter-edition sales slump.