If Wizards of the Coast went out of business

[Philotomy Jurament]

An active hobby needs an active publisher base, or else this fringe hobby will move even further out to the fringe.

I guess that's the key point. That doesn't dismay me. I don't mind the hobby being big, but if it were to contract and become "more fringe" I'd still be perfectly happy as part of that tiny fringe.

Forget publishers with monthly release schedules, or even quarterly - the profit margins will be so low that we'll be lucky to even see one release per year for most game lines.

Hard to say. It certainly wouldn't be the same. We'd have to see how much demand there actually was. Things like the Internet, the OGL, print-on-demand, etc. help keep a small/hobbyist market viable.

And slowly the hobby will dwindle to a shadow of its former self.

As long as I'm still having fun playing RPGs, exactly how big or small the hobby is doesn't really matter to me.

 

[Nellisir]

There would be a few splinterings, and you'd end up with several D&D alternatives. Then eventually someone, probably one of those companies, would acquire the D&D license again and with it, market share.

Realistically, that'd be what would happen. No one in RPG publishing is just going to sit around and let the RPG market wither. Assuming the D&D license itself simply wasn't available anymore, you'd see a few things happen.

Companies would look to pick up ex-WotC designers and developers.
Several companies would come out with their own "core books" and settings, and pimp their lines as dependable, reliable, and high quality. Everyone would tweak the system a little. You might see a glut of cute alliterative names. Customers would gradually migrate to one or several of those companies - you might end up with the WotC pie split several ways; no more 800-lb gorilla in the corner. It'd come down to business acumen and financing. The early bird will have a clear advantage, but it might take a little while to turn a profit.

Paizo, Green Ronin, Mongoose, and White Wolf are in the best positions right now, followed by Fantasy Flight Games and possibly Goodman Games.

Paizo has the closest link with WotC and some potentially deep pockets to call upon for financing. Green Ronin has Mutants & Masterminds and True20; they'd probably add a third "D&D"-ish system. Mongoose has the publishing volume and manpower already in play, plus Pocket PH and that stuff; they're probably the least likely to tweak the system and most likely to blast out a PH, DMG, and MM ASAP. White Wolf has the Sword & Sorcery line and tons of experience.

FFG might be able to build on Midnight and develop a system. Goodman Games...just seems like it'd have the speed and flexibility to move quickly and take advantage, though perhaps not the financing.
...

And as far as Eberron...3 settings were selected to create 100-page "bibles". Eberron was one. You've never heard of the other two because, at that point, WotC bought them lock, stock, and barrel. Why pay someone X dollars ($5,000?) to develop a setting, and then let it go?

 

[Ranger REG]

Whether you want one or not, wouldn't you prefer Paizo to have the choice to publish one if they wished to?

They should have the choice to publish adventures. Maybe not Age of Worms, but anything for use in ALL d20 fantasy games (not exclusive to D&D).

 

[Nightfall]

Ranger,

Blasphemer! Paizo MUST publish Age of Worms HC!

Davey,

I wasn't telling you, your opinion on the HC.

 

[Jürgen Hubert]

Realistically, that'd be what would happen. No one in RPG publishing is just going to sit around and let the RPG market wither. Assuming the D&D license itself simply wasn't available anymore, you'd see a few things happen.

Companies would look to pick up ex-WotC designers and developers.

That assumes that those ex-WotC designers will stay in the industry at all.

WotC is one of the few companies able to pay game designers a living wage. They can actually write game books enough money so that they don't have to work at a second job at the same time!

And the only other company that might be able to do that at the moment is White Wolf, and even they make heavy use of freelancers. I rather suspect that if WotC closes shop, many of these people will say: "Bugger this for a game of soldiers" and move on to other industries. Maybe a few of them will return to writing game books as a hobby, but their output will go through the floor.

 

[Nightfall]

Jurgen,

Don't kill off Nesillir's dream in the face of actual realities. I'm just saying I agree but let Nes dream a little dream.

 

[Glyfair]

WotC is one of the few companies able to pay game designers a living wage. They can actually write game books enough money so that they don't have to work at a second job at the same time!

Indeed. Look at the number of former RPG game designers who are working full-time in the software industry. It's a huge chunk.

I have a friend of mine who worked with Ken Rolston at Magnet and I believe followed him to another company. Keith Baker started at Magnet as well, coincidentally, and is now working for another software company (and a massive multiplayer Lego game). Sandy Petersen has been working in the software industry. I'm sure a quick google search will turn up many others.

 

[Corinth]

Like Warren Spector?

 

[hong]

Like Warren Spector?

He's never been the same since he gave up on the Wall of Sound.

 

[Nightfall]

*isn't sure he wants to know what the Wall of Sound is...*