Teflon Billy said:
I think 4e will be a different enough beast (Collectible, Minis required, purchaseale powerups etc) that I think it will hav no interest for a good sized chunck of the current D&D crowd.
WotC seems to love the cash that Collectibility brings, and I can't imagine them not using that model for 4e.
This idea that the next edition will be something more akin to MtG has been floating around for years now, with not a lot of corresponding evidence. This tends to make me think it the projection of fear, and not necessarily an accurate speculative trend.
Star Wars Saga is being released, and while we do not know all of the details, it seems to stay true to the standard RPG model and not be a model of "Collectibility". Given what I have heard,the Star Wars Miniature game was doing quite well for some time, and thus seemed a prime candidate for this dread experiment everyone is so fearful about.
Purchasing Randomized segments of rules just does not seem like it is an appropriate of effective model for a product like an RPG. It works for MtG because MtG is not an RPG.
I see the flag of "Backward Compatibility" is being hoisted again. It is unreasonable I think to assume that a new edition be backwards compatable. In some ways that is a good thing, as it means that the new edition is not some minor rules changes, (3.5 cough, cough).
If Vancian magic is dropped, or considerably altered, chiding the creators for not making the game entirely backward computable is just silly, and unrealistic.
For myself it will all depend on how good the system appears to be in 4e. I am sure I will buy the core books, just to look. Wether I switch over will be a different matter. Like many people I have invested quite a bit of cash into 3.5, so 4e will have to be quite good.