Sorry for the delay in getting back on this.
I don't want to engage with your example just yet, because I want to push back/clarify on some things here a bit to try to distill where we aren't in agreement.
So here are my thoughts surrounding this decision-point (forget for a moment your thought that this is "boring"...that doesn't tell us much...I'm going to try to do some forensics on this hypothetical moment of play).
1) We're talking about how Knowledge Skills might be used in play.
2) Survival is very specifically called out in both the PHB and DMG to be used for (i) "guiding through a frozen wasteland" and (ii) "Tracking" (whereby you look for environment-driven cues and make a surmise - the Knowledge check - based upon those cues).
Now let us take (1) and (2) for granted and discuss the following play archetype that 5e may try to produce (the others being a heavy GM curated and Force-driven Adventure Path game where the metaplot and the GM drive the action - my guess is this is the most common form of 5e play, another still being a sort of "Poor Man's Dungeon World"...let us stay away from those two for now and focus on the below):
HEXCRAWL SANDBOX
Here we have a game with a high resolution setting map that is scaled and stocked with preconceived obstacles/conflicts/threats, tables or obstacles/conflicts/threats, some form of timeline (both time and space are mapped and tracked), and triggered events.
So all of (a) the Fey Crossing location within a hex in the material world, (b) the trigger for the Crossing, (c) the nature (topography etc)/location (hex) of the Feywild at that Crossing, (d) the nature/location of the Dawnmote, (e) the events going on at this particular moment in time...all of these things would be preconceived in the mapping process.
So if the GM describes the environment:
- An expanse of barren icefield flanked by a frozen forest.
- The frozen forest has some unseen force playing upon it (a windfield above ground level?).
So the player wants to to study the environmental clues (in game terms - deploy Survival as a Knowledge Skill) to make an archetype-coherent surmise (for a survivalist/ranger-type) that helps "solve the puzzle" and propel play forward. Its sort of a combination of Tracking (in the sense that an object/phenomenon interacts with its environment and, in-so-doing, creates clues to its whereabouts) and "Guiding Through a Frozen Wasteland." In this frozen wasteland, would a mote of magical light generate the temperature and pressure differential necessary to manifest a wind-field. If so (in the same way that one might determine the location of a chimney/vent in a dungeon by watching the flickering torchlight), what direction are the trees being pushed (eg if North to South, then we know to head Northward).
Now this would all be preconceived by the GM's notes for this particular Hex and all of the granular information related to this Hex (time and space).
The GM is using Success at a Cost (DMG 242). The player rolls a Survival check and misses the hexcrawl obstacles DC by 2 triggering a Cost/Complication/Hindrance.
Given all of the above:
* Why would the above instance of gamestate inputs meets action declaration output be a problem?
* Why would the gamestate being changed in the way conceived (yes, the Dawnmote would interact with the extreme cold to create such a windfield and now you've winnowed its location to a direction..but your deductive timeframe has triggered an ice-hazard and possibly a denizen encounter, threatening or non-threatening remains to be seen) be a problem)?