I don't think it will, mostly because it will have been a longer time. 3.5e came out only three years after 3.0e. This will be a full decade. That's long enough for people to really sink their teeth in...and see where the system is lacking. If they can address some of the faults that projects like Level Up are attempting to address, adding enough crunch to deepen the experience for those who want it without compromising the lightness that other fans value, then I could actually see "5.5e" integrating the fanbase, bringing people back together by offering more folks the stuff they want, while taking away little valued by the people who are already happy.
Essentials "splitting" the 4e fanbase is frankly ridiculous, simply because it was still all 4e. Nothing in Essentials was in any way a "renovation" of the rules. It was literally just a rules expansion. That would be like saying that Tasha's has already split the 5e fanbase because some of its changes are something not every DM is interested in using.