Is the d20 market completely saturated?

[Psion]

I think in some areas it might be getting saturated, but definitely not all.

CAmpaign settings is an example of a market which it can almost be hard to saturate, because different settings are usually individual enough to mean that it's not more of the same being churned out.

That's not my feeling at all. I think campaign settings are EASY to saturate, simply because a campaign setting usually involves commitment to follow-on product and a group can typically only use 1 or 2 at a time. As a result, it seems like the first sort of product that people will swear off buying new products for is new settings.

Frex, I think Twin Crowns new products are pretty sharp, but I have trouble seeing a lot of people sign onto new settings, and it seems just like the early days of Scarred Lands they are second-billing their new products and generic supplements to pull in sales.

 

[roytheodd]

I think there's still lots of room in the d20 market and the D&D genre as well. The problem is that everyone is running around making more of the same rather than anything truly new. Monte Cook is the prime example of one of the few who is banging out material that adds to roleplaying as a whole (levels in races rather than classes, event books, etc.). So far there is proof that crunchy bits sell, so that's what we're seeing the most of, rather than innovation. There is still lots and lots and lots of room for innovation though.

 

[Mark]

I think so. I hear lots of rumbles that it is hard for new publishers to get distributors to take their product seriously, and the flurry of material is more than FLGS' can fairly market to their customers.

This assumes that the only way for material to reach the market is with print products through print product distribution and gamestores. Standard print runs of products fall in the 3 to 5 thousand range. Monte Cook can reach those numbers (and more) with PDF products, which means it is possible (if not now then eventually) for anyone with the right marketing techniques to reach the same number of end users with PDFs that a print publisher can reach with the same single product.

 

[Psion]

This assumes that the only way for material to reach the market is with print products through print product distribution and gamestores.

Okay, agreed that it's not.

Standard print runs of products fall in the 3 to 5 thousand range. Monte Cook can reach those numbers (and more) with PDF products, which means it is possible (if not now then eventually) for anyone with the right marketing techniques to reach the same number of end users with PDFs that a print publisher can reach with the same single product.

That said, you seem to be describing the dynamics of a small market as a refutation for what I am describing as the dynamics of a much larger part of the market. Monte's sales are great for a PDF product, but most PDF publishers have numbers in the hundreds or less, not the thousands.

 

[Mark]

That said, you seem to be describing the dynamics of a small market as a refutation for what I am describing as the dynamics of a much larger part of the market. Monte's sales are great for a PDF product, but most PDF publishers have numbers in the hundreds or less, not the thousands.

Overall sales of PDF products are growing, especially for those that are well made and reviewed as extensively as print products of a similar nature. The sales numbers of print products for most publishers seem to be in the decline or have slowed to a very low rate, from what I hear from people in the industry.

If the question of satuation is limited to "Can I sell more print products akin to those already on the market?" then I would tend to agree that the market is reaching (but not there yet) a saturation point. If the question is "Is there room for new ideas (and new perspectives on old ideas) in the market?" then I'd have to say (as I did above) that there is a ton of room in the market and it is no where near its saturation point. For, indeed, there is no limit on the number of good ideas that the market is capable of absorbing.

 

[Guilt Puppy]

That's not my feeling at all. I think campaign settings are EASY to saturate, simply because a campaign setting usually involves commitment to follow-on product and a group can typically only use 1 or 2 at a time. As a result, it seems like the first sort of product that people will swear off buying new products for is new settings.

That's true and that's not true, depending on how you look at it... From the consumer's point of view, I can't have enough options for campaign settings (and follow-up material, well, that follows)... Of course, I'd only ever want to buy a handful, and then follow-up products to at most two of my favorites...

So on the one hand, I can't say "there's no use to having yet-another campaign setting available," because that's always nice (so long as it's fairly unique)... On the other hand, it's pretty clear that the market can't support a lot of full campaign settings... The core setting book, yes, we could deal with a good number of those, but the follow-up products (which you need to spend money to publish) are not going to sell very well at all (because of, yes, saturation).

New d20 systems have the same problem. I'm probably only going to run games in at most two systems at any given time... I might pick up one or two other systems, so that market's not too bad, but if I'm running a campaign, well, I want support material. And support material with such a limited market is simply not profitable.

It's tough in general. E-publishing (including web enhancements) helps some, as it's generally cheaper to supply, but that also makes it an easier market to saturate.

All the same, I want to publish something, damn it...

 

[Tarrasque Wrangler]

I think it's over-saturated with fantasy at the moment. Everyone seems to have their own take on race books, splatbooks, magic item compendiums. It's a little too much. What I like to see are products like Traveller, Digital Burn, heck, even D20 Afghanistan. I haven't purchased any of these, and can't comment on their individual merit, but I like that someone is taking these GENERIC rules for a spin. I want to see more stuff that breaks the mold, not "The Umpteenth Guide to Drow". I'd like to see more sci-fi. I'd pay hard coin for a good time travel D20 game. If you, Mr. Fantasy Publisher, insist on keeping kosher, at least do something that sets you apart, like Midnight or Iron Kingdoms.

 

[Arnwyn]

The FLGS's in my area certainly think so. They have been cutting back on d20 products now, and entire publishers are being cut right out. They're only sticking with the companies that have, historically for them, been "sure-sellers" (in their words). [This has been no problem for me, as I have no interest in the ones they've canned.]

For me, I also think so. My d20 product list is (relatively) small - only 1 or 2 products a month (I said "relatively"!). I certainly will never be buying a feat, prestige class, or race/class book at this point (get some imagination, guys).

 

[Pramas]

Standard print runs of products fall in the 3 to 5 thousand range.

That hasn't been true in some time. The top half-dozen or so d20 companies routinely print in that range (and sometimes above), but the print market has gotten a lot tougher. I'd say 1-2,000 is a more accurate assessment these days, which is in line with other small ventures in the game biz.

 

[Mark]

That hasn't been true in some time. The top half-dozen or so d20 companies routinely print in that range (and sometimes above), but the print market has gotten a lot tougher. I'd say 1-2,000 is a more accurate assessment these days, which is in line with other small ventures in the game biz.

Thanks for the update but I was trying to use those numbers as top print publisher numbers since I was comparing them to top PDF publisher numbers. I should have written "Standard print runs for top print publishers of products fall in the 3 to 5 thousand range." I stand corrected.

Nonetheless, since Psion's reply was taking into account standard PDF publishers numbers (as opposed to top), your update goes a long way to making my point of the ever-closing gap between sales volumes of print publishers and sales volumes for PDF publishers.

(Good luck in the Origins Awards, Chris, Nicole, Hal and everyone at GR!)