Is the d20 market completely saturated?

[Pramas]

Nonetheless, since Psion's reply was taking into account standard PDF publishers numbers (as opposed to top), your update goes a long way to making my point of the ever-closing gap between sales volumes of print publishers and sales volumes for PDF publishers.

It'll be interesting to see if any publishers go from doing print to only doing PDF. We've seen companies go from PDF to print, I wonder if a pendulum swing will cause movement in the other direction.

The whole d20 thing caused some new publishers to get a really skewed idea of what the RPG market is like. There was a time when you could put out literally anything with a d20 logo and sell 3,000 or more. If you got into business at that time, going from those heights to selling 1,000 of a new book (and one that's probably much better than your early stuff) is probably a rude surprise. As a guy who ran a small company in the mid-90s, I can tell you that those numbers are nothing new to the small press though.

(Good luck in the Origins Awards, Chris, Nicole, Hal and everyone at GR!)

Thanks! I hope everyone is voting. We'll need every one (and then some) to have a chance vs. the clicky games.

 

[Mark]

It'll be interesting to see if any publishers go from doing print to only doing PDF. We've seen companies go from PDF to print, I wonder if a pendulum swing will cause movement in the other direction.

I think that there will always be people who wish to have print books in their hands, so there will always be a market for the best of the best products. I also think that most new publishers would be wise to adopt a policy of only going to press with their products that have the broadest appeal and do extremely well in sales and with reviews as PDF products first. Of course, if someone has a ton of money on hand to risk/waste and doesn't care about their return of profits (by which I mean at least covering their costs), then I suppose they can print anything they desire. Ultimately, an individual publisher flooding the market with inferior product simply makes it difficult for that individual publisher to get a distributor willing to back their future products. (This may seem obvious but I think it needs to be mentioned in this context.)

The whole d20 thing caused some new publishers to get a really skewed idea of what the RPG market is like. There was a time when you could put out literally anything with a d20 logo and sell 3,000 or more. If you got into business at that time, going from those heights to selling 1,000 of a new book (and one that's probably much better than your early stuff) is probably a rude surprise. As a guy who ran a small company in the mid-90s, I can tell you that those numbers are nothing new to the small press though.

The early land rush for shelf space certainly did create a false impression of the limits of it. I don't think, as some have suggested, that there is no room for new companies so much as there is more room for new companies that have proven themselves in some fashion. One way is to freelance through an existing company, thereby becoming a known quantity as a named author. I think this is the best way of getting a foot in the door to eventually being your own "print publisher" because you can point to actual print publisher sales numbers even if those numbers may be as much to do (if not moreso) with the publisher than the author at that stage.

That said, I think that people have a better chance of having the opportunity to prove themselves by self-publishing through the PDF medium because there are only so many companies in print that can support/bolster/make an author's name in large numbers and there are only so many spots on the roster for freelancers.

If someone's heart is set on actually being "in print" there is little likelihood they will be receptive to business-oriented arguments against it. But everyone knows that the closets of failed, print publishers are choked with books full of ideas (some great, more not-so-great.) Most people with business sense would do well to keep their ideas on their harddrive (and their money in their pocket) until they can "virtually" guarentee a return that greatly limits their financial risk. All of this strictly in my own opinion, of course.

Thanks! I hope everyone is voting. We'll need every one (and then some) to have a chance vs. the clicky games.

You've misspelt "cliquey" again...

 

[der_kluge]

I would agree with some that a really cool, or really well-done product might catch my eye, and I probably will go out of my way to get good books if I thought that I might be able to use them somewhere down the line. In general, I see far too much stuff out there, and I just can't help but wonder how long this kind of environment can sustain itself.

 

[Krug]

Saturated? But there still ain't a book for Gnomes and Halflings!
Even Flumphs get more coverage!

 

[Silver Moon]

Is the d20 market completely saturated?

To borrow a quote: "There's always room for somebody who can provide something better to the customer."

That quote was from Sam Walton, who was asked why he would consider building a Wal*Mart in a area that was already over-stored.

 

[Merlion]

I think I agree muchly with the spirit of SilverMoon's post. Yes, theirs a lot of bleepin stuff out their. Yes, many things have been covered many times. Several things however....some coverings of those things are better than others, and none are perfect. related to that since the game(s) is(are) all about taste, multiple versions of the same thing can still sell. The Elemental Savant might not be my idea of an Elementalist but the elementalism rules in Encyclopedia Arcane: Elementalism might fight my notion exactly. Also their are still things that havent been covered...or that have recived such poor coverage that they might as well not have been. Their are still many creatures of myth that have never been stated in a published product. Same goes for spell ideas.
I think Malhavoc Press is an excellent example of a company that is doing new and interesting things...or superior takes on old ones.
Of course me, theirs lots of things I never get tired of really. I just take my time and sort the redundant dreck from the good stuff

 

[ColonelHardisson]

Has the market been saturated? Well, from my viewpoint as a customer, I have to say yes and no.

Yes, in the sense that traditional RPG products - modules, "Complete Handbooks," settings, etc. - have been produced in quantities that far outstrips the ability of even a completist to keep up.

No, in the sense that true exploitation of the OGL has yet to really be taken advantage of yet on a large scale, except in a relatively few instances. What I mean is OGL stuff like Monte's forthcoming Arcana Unearthed - but beyond that also. Y'know what I thought was a really cool d20 product? The d20 Ranger, the plastic ruler with ranges of spells and abilities on it. I bought one as soon as I saw it; I love gewgaws like that, that make the game easier to play, or are just plain fun.

Just my opinions, for what they're worth.

 

[CCamfield]

It does feel pretty saturated, but on the other hand, as far as product topics goes, it seems like there's still some room available.

Aside from Mongoose's Fighter book, we haven't really seen much in the way of books covering mass combat and, warfare, although this year should see that change, assuming both Fields of Blood and Cry Havoc are released in 2003.

Atlas is releasing a sourcebook about political intrigue and going to release one about using the law (law enforcement in various forms) as the basis for adventures. Mercenaries: Born of Blood should be another book covering a different mode of fantasy gaming. (AEG's Mercenaries doesn't really count.)

To my knowledge, these will the first d20 books covering these topics, as compared with umpteen books of races, classes, spells, etc.

 

[s/LaSH]

Sure, there's a lot of stuff out there. But I don't see all that much that appeals to me - prestige classes, spells, races, I can do all that myself if I really want to and it'll be fairly much within the framework established in the core three rulebooks.

Imaginative stuff like Mutants and Masterminds (which I just got - my first gaming book since the core three, and then only because I won it in a competition), however, that's more interesting to me. Something you can't do with half an hour and the core rules.

I realise I'm a frugal, self-reliant creative sort. But I see huge potential yet for products that would fill holes in my view of cool stuff (tm). D&D rules are just too specific to ever cover everything you want - thus the plethora of products. But I don't think they're saturated. I'm just waiting for the cool stuff.


On another note:

3.5e comes out fairly soon. Does anyone see that breathing a spurt of 'new life' into the field? At least for all those with completist genes.

 

[Monte At Home]

We'll need every one (and then some) to have a chance vs. the clicky games.

Yeah, darn those clicky games!

Oh wait...