D&D (2024) Is There A New Sheriff in Town?

[mamba]

Sales don’t have to shrink in order to trigger panic, they just have to stop increasing in the way they had been. And guess what? That is already happening.

I have not seen data to suggest this, apart from the Covid bubble bursting

It has nothing to do with DH, but DH is attracting a lot of attention right now, and in business maths 2+2=5.

I am not counting on the irrationality of WotC / Hasbro over DH. Let's see how much attention DH has in 6 months, WotC cannot really react in that timeframe even if they wanted to.

By then we also have Draw Steel and maybe Cosmere, at which point maybe they would like to react, but the 'correct' reaction is becoming less clear.

 

[soviet]

I think White Wolf's achievement in getting close to D&D is much more impressive than Paizo's.

White Wolf brought in a new audience to roleplaying and genuinely expanded the hobby. Their games had style, they were bold, they were different, they had something to say and had a real artistic value rather than just a commercial one.

 

[payn]

I think White Wolf's achievement in getting close to D&D is much more impressive than Paizo's.

White Wolf brought in a new audience to roleplaying and genuinely expanded the hobby. Their games had style, they were bold, they were different, they had something to say and had a real artistic value rather than just a commercial one.

Not my experience. At least from folks playing it...

 

[Morrus]

Sales don’t have to shrink in order to trigger panic, they just have to stop increasing in the way they had been. And guess what? That is already happening.

I have not seen data to suggest this, apart from the Covid bubble bursting

Neither of you have, because that data is not available to either of you. The most anybody has is circumstantial or anecdotal information. Nobody outside of WotC knows their sales figures, nobody outside of Paizo knows their sales figures, nobody outside of any TTRPG company knows their sales figures (except, maybe, Evil Hat because Fred Hicks shares them publicly).

 

[Distracted DM]

Reacting would probably be WoTC 'borrowing' whatever novel elements that proved to be popular in Daggerheart and incorporating them into a future 2024 book or a potential 6e book. Anything that could put them into the lead again.

Since they're so concerned re: making something not backwards-compatible (a whole new edition), maybe it'd be some sort of conversion supplement- "CritRole-ify your game today! Inject Daggerheart narrative rules like a dagger through the heart!"

 

[mamba]

Neither of you have, because that data is not available to either of you.

sales numbers, no, quarterly and annual reports, absolutely. While they do not list D&D explicitly as a category, they sometimes do mention D&D related tidbits like growth rate.

I wish they would not try to obfuscate so much in their financial reporting, but it is still the best info we have, unfortunately

 

[Redthistle]

The point is, panic isn’t rational. Not having a reason to panic has never prevented people from panicking.

Some years ago I read an article about a study that had interviewed people in a crowd that had been filmed in what observers felt was certainly an example of panicking. What the researchers found, however, was that every individual they interviewed had rational, even pragmatic, reasons for their actions.

The researchers conclusion was that what looks like panic to outsiders may actually be sensible choices by the participants as they strive to make the best decisions they can in surviving a chaotic, ever-changing situation.

It may be best to view it like Brownian motion. We may not understand why the molecules in a liquid move like they do, but myriad forces we lack data on influence those molecules.

 

[Paul Farquhar]

Neither of you have, because that data is not available to either of you

I have logic. Eventually the market becomes saturated. Everyone knows about D&D now. People are either players, or will never become players because they don’t enjoy that kind of thing. The red line cannot keep going up forever, but buisiness believes it can.

 

[Paul Farquhar]

It may be best to view it like Brownian motion. We may not understand why the molecules in a liquid move like they do

Sure we do. They are being bounced around by smaller particles that are not visible. That’s why it was an important observation.

I think what you have just demonstrated is how widespread ignorance is.

 

[Corinnguard]

I think what you have just demonstrated is how widespread ignorance is.

This is something to be expected because Brownian Motion isn't a topic that comes up with any regular frequency in a person's day to day life. And when it does come up, it gets something of a passing glance. No follow-up Investigation check.

Besides, @Redthistle was using Brownian Motion as an analogy when it comes to individuals panicking about something. There are a number of things that can trigger a person into panicking. And most people don't, in hindsight, try to figure out all of the things that could have made them panic in the first place. They focus on the one thing that must have set them off. Thus, there are no further Investigation checks made after that moment.