Is Wotc Slipping?

[Chainsaw Mage]

4) If a publisher (like, for example, Wizards of the Coast) has a brand that brings them millions and millions and millions of dollars in profit, are those dollars worth less because they came from a "niche hobby"?

You honeslty think that D&D brings WoTC "millions and millions and millions" of dollars?

Oh wait, I get it . . . you were speaking purely hypothetically.

 

[Erik Mona]

Yes. I assume that all components of the D&D brand result in profit of many millions of dollars.

--Erik

 

[Bluenose]

Umm... Pen and paper RPGs are already a niche hobby. Have been for years. Compared the overall market of RPGs to video games, CCGs, movies, etc, we're barely a blip on the radar.

Yes. Even compared to books about video games, RPG books are poor sellers. Since we've already had Amazon sales ranks used as a point of comparison in this thread, I can point out that at Amazon UK the PF core rules aren't in the RPG category. They are in hobbies and games, rather than the sub-category for RPGs. And they're not exactly storming away at the top of the charts. Considering the competition includes game guides for video games from a year ago, that doesn't inspire the idea that the niche is particularly large.

 

[xechnao]

Yes. I assume that all components of the D&D brand result in profit of many millions of dollars.

--Erik

Does this probably mean that the sales of the tabletop rpg branch is not what makes the most profits for the D&D brand?

 

[Retreater]

I have a few responses to Mr. Mona's earlier post.

I should elaborate a bit, because I actually found virtually every part of Retreater's post to be objectionable.

I'm glad you object to it. It would please me greatly to be proven wrong, as that would attest to the strength of the hobby.

1) The idea that "nothing will ever have the brand recognition of D&D, so no one should ever even attempt to compete" is self-defeating. Pathfinder doesn't need to "beat" D&D to be a very successful business.

True. I was merely stating that some players will play only "D&D" due to the name recognition. If you're in a community such as mine (for example) where 50% of the people will play only D&D and the other only Pathfinder, this schism results in a fragmented player base. Stores don't know what materials to carry, GMs have trouble sustaining groups with enough players, etc.

2) Pathfinder has an intro product in development at the moment and will have it out by the end of the year. Just because something does not currently exist does not mean that it will never exist.

I am aware of this, and I'm excited about it - and I think it will be a great seller for Paizo.

However, the Basic Set is not the only way to get new players interested in the hobby. Consider that even in my small area that WotC has Encounters, D&D Game Day, etc., while the Pathfinder Society has no presence.

What if Paizo could create some short Encounters-like sessions that could be given to game stores so they can test drive Pathfinder with interested players?

3) There are PLENTY of things that Wizards of the Coast could do to entice 3.5 or Pathfinder players to their products. Capitulating on this point, as Retreater suggests, shows enormous lack of imagination. I'm beginning to see why he calls himself "Retreater".

I do disagree that most Pathfinder fans will defect from Pathfinder to play 4th edition. Most I know will never purchase another WotC product - even those that are not edition specific including miniatures, dungeon tiles, etc. They consider Pathfinder the final evolution of D&D. They detest 4E and aren't in the slightest bit interested in a 5th edition release.

True, WotC could pull away from 4E and release legacy products, but there is nothing NEW that they can produce that will entice PF players to drop their games.

4) If a publisher (like, for example, Wizards of the Coast) has a brand that brings them millions and millions and millions of dollars in profit, are those dollars worth less because they came from a "niche hobby"? Indeed, most hobbies are niche, and yet lots of people make lots of money catering to the interests of hobbyists. Not really a lot of "doom" in this scenario, in my opinion.

But consider this (admittedly very simplified) example: During 3.5 WotC made $10M from selling D&D products. They needed $8M in sales to be profittable due to their overhead (including quality of products, advertising, etc.)

Now that 4E has failed to meet the expectations of 3.5's sales and Paizo has taken a substantial piece of the pie, each are making $5M dollars in sales. This means that D&D is no longer reaching the $8M in sales needed to be profittable, so quality of products, advertising, etc., must all be cut.

So what was once the industry leader with the greatest market penetration is now turning out fewer products and has less market presence than they did 5 years ago.

I fail to see how this isn't bad for the hobby in general. It's terrible for WotC specifically. Good for Paizo. I personally have doubts if the hobby can survive without the D&D brand.

Even if Pathfinder and/or 4th edition were declared utter financial failures tomorrow and nothing was ever published for them again, there's more than enough stuff already published in both systems to provide fun for years to come.

True. However, let's look at other "dead" systems. It's incredibly difficult to find a 2nd edition AD&D players or a Palladium fantasy players, esp. compared to PF or 4E. As members of your group leave for various reasons (job, family, moving, death, etc.), it becomes hard to sustain a gaming group until you are left with nothing more than yourself with your old copy of Labyrinth of Madness.



This post is not criticising Paizo for stepping in to pick up the ball that WotC dropped with 4E's release. You don't need me, some moron on a messageboard, to tell you that Paizo is now considered a major industry leader of tabletop roleplaying games. What now needs to happen is to grow the Pathfinder fan base. Go for a 75/25 split with WotC. Make it so that GMs can find 3 PF players instead of 2 PF players and 2 4E players.

Get the word out to gaming stores. Encourage PF playing events. Give free society adventures and gaming aids to DMs willing to spend an entire afternoon finding fans for your product.

Retreater

 

[Fifth Element]

But consider this (admittedly very simplified) example: During 3.5 WotC made $10M from selling D&D products. They needed $8M in sales to be profittable due to their overhead (including quality of products, advertising, etc.)

Now that 4E has failed to meet the expectations of 3.5's sales and Paizo has taken a substantial piece of the pie, each are making $5M dollars in sales. This means that D&D is no longer reaching the $8M in sales needed to be profittable, so quality of products, advertising, etc., must all be cut.

I'd bet I could make up some numbers to show the complete opposite.

 

[tehuber]

4) If a publisher (like, for example, Wizards of the Coast) has a brand that brings them millions and millions and millions of dollars in profit, are those dollars worth less because they came from a "niche hobby"?

They are if Hasbro feels that for the money spent, they could get Tens and tens of millions of dollars releasing new transformers figures, or another edition of monopoly, or something else.

 

[Imaro]

I'd bet I could make up some numbers to show the complete opposite.

Uhmm... you do realize he was giving a purely hypothetical example to illustrate his thoughts... right?

 

[czak]

What if Paizo could create some short Encounters-like sessions that could be given to game stores so they can test drive Pathfinder with interested players?


Get the word out to gaming stores. Encourage PF playing events. Give free society adventures and gaming aids to DMs willing to spend an entire afternoon finding fans for your product.

Retreater

There are three free introductory society adventures coming out in July

http://paizo.com/store/games/rolepl...hfinderSocietyScenarios/season2/v5748btpy8jor

http://paizo.com/store/games/rolepl...hfinderSocietyScenarios/season2/v5748btpy8jos

http://paizo.com/store/games/rolepl...hfinderSocietyScenarios/season2/v5748btpy8jot

There is a free introductory module available now

paizo.com - Pathfinder Module: Master of the Fallen Fortress (PFRPG)

And another due out in June

http://paizo.com/store/games/roleplayingGames/p/pathfinderRPG/paizo/pathfinderModules/v5748btpy8j5w

And they have continued to roll out their venture captain / co-ordinator program

 

[El Mahdi]

...I do disagree that most Pathfinder fans will defect from Pathfinder to play 4th edition. Most I know will never purchase another WotC product - even those that are not edition specific including miniatures, dungeon tiles, etc. They consider Pathfinder the final evolution of D&D. They detest 4E and aren't in the slightest bit interested in a 5th edition release.

True, WotC could pull away from 4E and release legacy products, but there is nothing NEW that they can produce that will entice PF players to drop their games...

I don't believe Erik said anything about buying 4E products, just WotC products.

WotC doesn't have to entice players to drop their Pathfinder games to get them to buy WotC products. All WotC would have to do is provide equivalent DDI support for 3.x and Pathfinder, and return sales of OoP products (something Paizo cannot do - though I'd love to see Paizo do a 3E/Pathfinder DDI type service). Nobody drops Pathfinder and WotC gets the customers! (Maybe not 100%, but I'm betting pretty close.) Doesn't mean people also stop buying Paizo products, but WotC would definitely be making significant sales to Pathfinder fans.