Legends & Lore: What Worked, What Didn't

[Majoru Oakheart]

did none of your 6d6 spells hit multi targets?

One potential oversight I see is the 3rd level spells aren't hitting multiple targets (it is area effect?). If we assume the wizard can catch 3 targets on average then the wizard expectation jumps up 70.

Honestly, I don't care how much extra damage gets done to multiple targets. Yes, the Wizard is often better at fighting multiple targets...However, that's kind of their thing.

It should be noted, however, that even if you add 3 more targets to the area of effect of both Fireballs/Lightning Bolts that that adds 105 more damage making the totals:
Fighter: 345
Wizard: 296.75

Another issue is any damage past the dropping point is wasted. Effects that cause high damage have an effective cap on effectiveness based on the capacity to absorb damage. That harder to model.

Yeah, but it's one that both the Wizard and Fighter need to worry about. A Fireball can easily have most of its damage wasted if everyone in the area of effect has 1 hitpoint as well. I'd say that it's kind of a wash between the two.

 

[Mistwell]

From the last public packet it works almost the same. The only difference is the save DC is lower, but still very high for creatures with no Dex bonus cast at level 1:

Or Strength bonus, which they can also use to escape. Most creatures have either a Dex or a Str bonus.

Since bounded accuracy means creatures ability scores don't go up with level, this means its entirely likely to shut down an encounter with a level 2 spell slot for 4-6 rounds at 15th level.

A simple torch, candle, lantern, or flint and steel is all you need to escape. Sure, if you start your turn that way you take some minor damage, but it's not a significant amount and pretty meaningless after the low levels.

The spell also has three restrictions: 1) requires two things to attach to so the web can hang between them, 2) creatures in the web are lightly obscured (some can hide in lightly obscured terrain, causing disadvantage on attacks), and 3) you cannot use any fire-spells or other fire-causing items against them unless you're willing to let them escape.

It's really not as powerful as it seems in the book, once it hits actual gameplay. It's a fine spell, but nothing overpowered about it. So many ways to defeat or override it: ranged weapons, hiding in lightly obscured terrain, fire, strength, dexterity, or removing an object it's attached to. In practice, it's typically only a minor delaying spell.

 

[Sage Genesis]

In fact, the math is easy enough, I'll just do it. The Fighter has +7 to hit. Most enemies have a 13 AC or so at this level. So they hit 75% of the time. Their average damage is 12. They get to action surge after every short rest, let's assume they take one between each of the 4 encounters. So that means in the 12 rounds of combat they make 32 attacks. 24 of those attacks hit. 10% of them are crits because of the class feature. The crits do 20.5. 22 normal attacks x 12 = 264. 2 Crits x 20.5 = 41. 8 rounds of misses = 40 damage. For a total of 345 damage.

The 5th level Wizard has 9 Spell slots. Let's assume the 3rd level spells are 6d6 save for half. The 2nd level spells are Scorching Rays and the 1st level spells are Magic Missiles.

2 x 6d6(average 21) = 41 damage. Let's assume a monster with +0 to Dex. The DC for a 20 Int Wizard is 15. They save 30% of the time. So 12.3 of that damage in halved. So 6.15 gets taken off. Let's round down to 6 to make this easier. So 35 damage.

3 x 6d6(average 21) damage from Scorching Rays. They have +7 to hit so they hit 75% of the time. 13.5 rays hit for 94.5 damage.

4 x 3d4+3(average 10.5) damage from magic missiles. That's 42 damage.

3 rounds of using cantrips. Let's assume Ray of Frost. 9 damage a piece with only a 75% chance to hit. 20.25 damage.

Thus, during the same 12 rounds a Wizard does 35 + 94.5 + 42 + 20.25 = 191.75

TL;DR:
Assuming 4 encounters at 3 rounds per encounter:
5th level Fighter: 345 Damage per day
5th level Wizard: 191.75 Damage per day

Each encounter after 4 in a day just continues favoring the Fighter more and more.

I have some real problems with this analysis.

First, a short rest as a full hour. I find it implausible that three times per day a party could find a suitable spot to rest for so long. Giving the Fighter action surge during each encounter is an unlikely scenario.

Second, the Mage has arcane recovery. If you're going to give the Fighter action surge, then you also need to give the Mage extra spell slots totaling up to three spell levels.

Third, I'd like to know how 13.5 rays will hit considering only 12 are fired off in the first place.
(I think you looked at the 3 x 6d6 and somehow thought 3x6 means 18 rays are fired?)

Fourth, if the Mage has some more favorable AoE he will do way more damage. Magic Missile's damage pales in comparison to what Burning Hands can do. (MM will hit for 10.5 average, BH can hit for 53.55 on average if it catches the maximum amount of medium-sized targets.) And with up to seven of those thanks to arcane recovery, he could exceed the Fighter's damage using nothing but his first level slots.


I'm not really out to prove either the Fighter or the Mage to be superior, but as far as analysis goes this just doesn't help much. Either one's use will depend massively on the details of the scenario so it's rather a case-by-case basis.


Edit:
Oh and Scorching Rays can critical hit too. You didn't take that into account although you did for the Fighter.

 

[Thyrwyn]

Nope - on the 101413 Classes file, page 6 under Bard, saving throw DC is 8 + mod + prof bonus (with instrument in case of Bard).

My bad, I was remembering the number from the "How to Play" doc from Scourge of the Sword Coast which still says 10+. The Classes doc does list 8+

 

[Cybit]

My bad, I was remembering the number from the "How to Play" doc from Scourge of the Sword Coast which still says 10+. The Classes doc does list 8+

Lol yeah I saw that too.

I would just reiterate that folks keep an open mind about the game and just read the rules when they come out. That's what I'll end up doing.

 

[Mistwell]

Second, the Mage has arcane recovery. If you're going to give the Fighter action surge, then you also need to give the Mage extra spell slots totaling up to three spell levels.

It's once per day, not every short rest.

 

[Majoru Oakheart]

First, a short rest as a full hour. I find it implausible that three times per day a party could find a suitable spot to rest for so long. Giving the Fighter action surge during each encounter is an unlikely scenario.

In wilderness random encounters, it's pretty much guaranteed. We've also done it in between most encounters at this point. But, I agree, it won't always happen.

Second, the Mage has arcane recovery. If you're going to give the Fighter action surge, then you also need to give the Mage extra spell slots totaling up to three spell levels.

Third, I'd like to know how 13.5 rays will hit considering only 12 are fired off in the first place.
(I think you looked at the 3 x 6d6 and somehow thought 3x6 means 18 rays are fired?)

Yeah, some mistakes were made...but I believe it still only lowers the Wizard's damage.

Fourth, if the Mage has some more favorable AoE he will do way more damage. Magic Missile's damage pales in comparison to what Burning Hands can do. (MM will hit for 10.5 average, BH can hit for 53.55 on average if it catches the maximum amount of medium-sized targets.) And with up to seven of those thanks to arcane recovery, he could exceed the Fighter's damage using nothing but his first level slots.

That's correct, but as I say up above. I don't really have an interest in figuring out whether a Wizard who constantly hits lots and lots of enemies will do more damage. Of course he will, and he SHOULD. I chose Magic Missile because it does more damage against just one monster.

I'm not really out to prove either the Fighter or the Mage to be superior, but as far as analysis goes this just doesn't help much. Either one's use will depend massively on the details of the scenario so it's rather a case-by-case basis.

I agree. I think that most of the time the Fighter will end up doing more damage because a Wizard ends up saving a bunch of spells just in case a really nasty monster comes by and doesn't need most of their spells. They also likely use up spell slots of things that aren't combat. But they will dominate battles with lots of enemies that are close together.

I was originally responding to someone who said they couldn't play D&D Next because of how obviously imbalanced the Wizard was compared to a Fighter that it was able to do SO much more damage than a fighter that it wasn't even a contest. I was just doing the math to show that not only is it a contest but that in fairly average circumstances the Fighter does MORE damage not less.

 

[Lokiare]

Wait...so far our encounters have been taking around 3-4 rounds of combat a piece. Let's assume this 4 encounter per day at 3 rounds per combat for a total of 12 rounds of combat a day. I'd like to see the math on a Wizard outstripping a Fighter at level 5 given those assumptions.

The fighter must have a 20 strength and be using a Greatsword and take the Great Weapon Fighting Class feature.

In fact, the math is easy enough, I'll just do it. The Fighter has +7 to hit. Most enemies have a 13 AC or so at this level. So they hit 75% of the time. Their average damage is 12. They get to action surge after every short rest, let's assume they take one between each of the 4 encounters. So that means in the 12 rounds of combat they make 32 attacks. 24 of those attacks hit. 10% of them are crits because of the class feature. The crits do 20.5. 22 normal attacks x 12 = 264. 2 Crits x 20.5 = 41. 8 rounds of misses = 40 damage. For a total of 345 damage.

The 5th level Wizard has 9 Spell slots. Let's assume the 3rd level spells are 6d6 save for half. The 2nd level spells are Scorching Rays and the 1st level spells are Magic Missiles.

2 x 6d6(average 21) = 41 damage. Let's assume a monster with +0 to Dex. The DC for a 20 Int Wizard is 15. They save 30% of the time. So 12.3 of that damage in halved. So 6.15 gets taken off. Let's round down to 6 to make this easier. So 35 damage.

3 x 6d6(average 21) damage from Scorching Rays. They have +7 to hit so they hit 75% of the time. 13.5 rays hit for 94.5 damage.

4 x 3d4+3(average 10.5) damage from magic missiles. That's 42 damage.

3 rounds of using cantrips. Let's assume Ray of Frost. 9 damage a piece with only a 75% chance to hit. 20.25 damage.

Thus, during the same 12 rounds a Wizard does 35 + 94.5 + 42 + 20.25 = 191.75

TL;DR:
Assuming 4 encounters at 3 rounds per encounter:
5th level Fighter: 345 Damage per day
5th level Wizard: 191.75 Damage per day

Each encounter after 4 in a day just continues favoring the Fighter more and more.

Did I miss a packet after the 8/02/13 packet? I'm not seeing anything listed in the Fighter section for a Great Weapon feature.

Let's go over this line by line so everyone can understand where we are getting our numbers:

Our assumptions:

Both

3 Rounds per encounter
4 Encounters
Total rounds = 12
Average AC 12.86_ (I went through all the level 5 monsters in the bestiary) so we'll say 13
Average save bonuses (rounded in favor of the Fighter) Str: +3, Dex: +2, Con: +2, Int: -1, Wis: +1, Cha: +0

Fighter

Level 5
Great Sword (2d6, slashing)
Action Surge 2x a day (being generous, its unlikely in play they would get it more than 1x day)
Warrior sub-class for the 19-20 crit range.
2 attacks per action (4x when using Action Surge).
Strength 20 (+5)
Attack bonus +8 (Str mod + fighter bonus)
Damage 2d6+5

Wizard

Level 5
Only use half of their daily spells for combat. 1st(2), 2nd(2), 3rd(1)
Spell DC 17
Intelligence 20 (+5)
Attack bonus +7 (Magic bonus + Int mod)
Evocation sub-class (Potent Cantrip - Half Damage on a miss or save)


Fighter Math:
Hit %: (((invert - (AC - bonus)) + equal to or greater on dice) * percent of each point on dice) - crit chance
Hit %: (((20 - (13 - 8)) + 1) * .05) - .1 = .7 = 70%

Crit %: Percent of each point on dice * number of points in crit range
Crit %: .05 * 2 = .1

Damage based on hit and crit chance:
Hit ((1d6*2)+str mod) * hit chance
Hit ((3.5*2)+5)*.7 = 8.4;

Crit (((2d6*2)+1d6) + str mod * crit chance
Crit ((((12*2)+3.5)+5) * .1 = 3.25

Total 8.4 + 3.25 = 11.65 per attack.

Number of attacks per round day:
(attacks per round * rounds in a day) + extra attacks from action surge
(2 * 12) + 4 = 28

Total Damage per day: 28 * 11.65 = 326.2

Wizard Math:

Dex vs. Spell DC
Hit %: (((DC - Dex mod) - equal to or greater on dice) * percent of each point on dice)
Hit %: (((17 - 2)) - 1) * .05) = .7 = 70%

Miss %: 100% - 70% = 30%



Con vs. Spell DC
Hit %: (((DC - Con mod) - equal to or greater on dice) * percent of each point on dice)
Hit %: (((17 - 2)) - 1) * .05) = .7 = 70%

Miss %: 100% - 70% = 30%



Wis vs. Spell DC
Hit %: (((DC - Con mod) - equal to or greater on dice) * percent of each point on dice)
Hit %: (((17 - 1)) - 1) * .05) = .75 = 75%

Miss %: 100% - 75% = 25%

Str vs. Spell DC
Hit %: (((DC - Con mod) - equal to or greater on dice) * percent of each point on dice)
Hit %: (((17 - 3)) - 1) * .05) = .65 = 65%

Miss %: 100% - 65% = 35%

Vs. AC Magic bonus + Int mod:
Hit %: (((invert - (AC - bonus)) + equal to or greater on dice) * percent of each point on dice) - crit chance
Hit %: (((20 - (13 - 7)) + 1) * .05) - .05 = .7 = 70%

Crit %: Percent of each point on dice * number of points in crit range
Crit %: .05 * 1 = .05 = 5%

Miss %: 100% - (hit chance + crit chance)
Miss %: 1 - (.7 + .05) = .25


Cantrips

Chill Touch / Ray of Frost
Hit: (1d8 * 2) * hit chance
Hit: (4.5*2) * .7 = 6.3

Crit: ((1d8 * 2) + 1d8) * crit chance
Crit: ((8*2)+4.5) * .05 = 1.025

Miss: ((1d8 * 2) / 2) * miss chance
Miss: ((4.5 * 2) / 2) * .25 = 1.125

Total: 6.3 + 1.025 + 1.125 = 8.45

Shocking Grasp
Hit: (1d8 * 2) * hit chance
Hit: (4.5*2) * .7 = 6.3

Miss: ((1d8*2)/2) * miss chance
Miss: ((4.5*2)/2) * .25 = 1.125

Total: 6.3 + 1.125 = 7.425

So our best bet for Cantrips is Chill Touch / Ray of Frost for 8.45 DPR

Now for the dailies:
1st level

Magic Missile
Hit: (3d4+3) * hit chance
Hit: ((2.5 * 3)+3) * 1 = 10.5

Thunder Wave
Hit: (1d8*2) * hit chance
Hit: (4.5*2) * .7 = 6.3

Miss: ((1d8*2)/2) * miss chance
Miss: ((4.5*2)/2) * .25 = 1.125

Total: 6.3 + 1.125 = 7.425

Burning Hands
Hit: (3d6) * hit chance
Hit: ((3.5*3) * .7 = 7.35

Miss: ((3d6)/2) * miss chance
Miss: ((3.5*3)/2) * .3 = 1.575

Total: 7.35 + 1.575 = 8.925

So Burning Hands is our winner at 8.925 damage per cast and we can cast it 2x for 17.85.

2nd Level

Melf's Acid Arrow
Hit: (6d6) * hit chance
Hit: (3.5*6) * .7 = 14.7

Crit: ((6d6) + 1d6) * crit chance
Crit: ((6*6)+3.5) * .05 = 1.975

Miss: (3d6) * miss chance
Miss: (3.5 * 3) * .25 = 2.625

Total: 14.7 + 1.975 + 2.625 = 19.3

Scorching Ray
Hit: (2d6) * hit chance
Hit: (3.5*2) * .7 = 4.9

Crit: ((2d6) + 1d6) * crit chance
Crit: ((6*2)+3.5) * .05 = 0.775

Total: (4.9 + 0.775) * 3 = 17.025

So looks like 2 Melf's Acid Arrows for 38.6 damage per day. So far our total is 56.45

3rd Level

Schorching Ray (used from a 3rd level slot)
Hit: (2d6) * hit chance
Hit: (3.5*2) * .7 = 4.9

Crit: ((2d6) + 1d6) * crit chance
Crit: ((6*2)+3.5) * .05 = 0.775

Total: (4.9 + 0.775) * 4 = 22.7

Hasted Cantrips for 3 rounds
8.45 * 3 = 25.35

Flaming Sphere (used from a 3rd level slot)
Hit: (3d6) * hit chance
Hit: ((3.5*3) * .7 = 7.35

Miss: ((3d6)/2) * miss chance
Miss: ((3.5*3)/2) * .3 = 1.575

Total: 7.35 + 1.575 = 8.925 * 3 rounds = 26.775

Now to total all the spells of the day:

2x Burning Hands (17.85), 2x Melf's Acid Arrow (38.6), 1x Flaming Sphere (3rd level slot for 3 rounds) (26.775), Ray of Frost x 5 (42.25) = 125.475

Fighter = 326.2
Wizard = 125.475

Not that impressive huh? Well, now instead of trying to deal direct damage, lets take a look at what happens when the Wizard takes out creatures using non-damaging spells:

The average hp at level 5 for monsters in the bestiary is 44. So theh base damage of a save or die spell is 44 multiplied by its hit rate.

The extra attack granted by Haste to the Fighter counts as DPR for the Wizard, because without the Wizard there to cast it, the Fighter wouldn't be able to do it.

1st level

Charm Person
(when used to convince a combatant to leave the battle)
Hit: (44) * hit chance
Hit: 44 * .75 = 33

Now we know that not all creatures will be humanoid, however in a given day its pretty likely you will run across at least 2 humanoids that you come into conflict with so x2 = 66

2nd level

Hold Person
(Assuming they will be dead in 3 rounds, since combats only last 3 rounds, we will do the math for 3 rounds of hold person)

Hit: 44 * ((hit chance)^rounds)
Hit: 44 * ((.75)^3) = 18.5625

Web
(Which makes it trivial to kill something, advantage on attacks and the target gets disadvantage on their attacks if they even have a ranged attack, unless they have some kind of fire which is rare, we will do the math for 1 Dex save and then 2 Str checks vs. Spell DC)

Hit: 44 * (((Dex hit chance)^rounds) * ((Str hit chance)^rounds))
Hit: 44 * (((.70)^1) * ((.65)^2)) = 13.013

Suggestion
("It would probably be best if get as far away from here as you can, its dangerous")

Hit: 44 * hit chance
Hit: 44 * .75 = 33

x2 = 66

3rd level

Haste
(used on the Fighter and the Fighters extra attacks damage counted toward the Mage)
Fighter attack damage * rounds in a combat
11.65 * 3 = 34.95

Charm Person x2 (66), Suggestion x2 (66), Haste (on Fighter) 34.95, and Ray of Frost x7 (59.15) for a total of 226.1

Fighter = 326.2
Wizard = 226.1

Notice how close those are. The Wizard does about 70% of the damage of the Fighter over the course of a 3 round per encounter 4 encounter per day. Now that's when they give up half their spells. They can easily outdo the Fighter if they go all combat spells:

Charm Person x4 (132), Suggestion x3 (99), Haste (on fighter) x2 69.7 and Ray of Frost x7 (59.15) for a total of 359.85

Fighter = 326.2
Wizard = 359.85

So in this case the Fighter actually does about 90% of the damage of the Wizard. Since the Fighter has little or no out of combat utility (minus standing watch, which the Wizard can do with a ritual casting of alarm) this comparison is valid.

This gap only widens as the characters gain levels and the Wizard goes up in quadratic power. On top of this the Wizard has the ability to hit multiple targets with Suggestion and other save or die/suck spells. Which means the Wizard comes out ahead easily except in rare corner cases when the DM doesn't follow the guidelines in the DM document.

Edit: Note I didn't use Arcane Recovery which would push the number up much higher.

Edit 2: Also note that I'm using the "080213 DnD Next Playtest Packet". I don't have access to the newer one, if someone would be so kind to PM me a way to get it, I would love to do an analysis on it too.

 

[Lokiare]

You guys do realize that a DC 15 is impossible to reach at 3rd level, right?

the DC for spells is 8 + spellcasting mod (which, at 3rd level, is capped out at +3, since the highest buyable stat is 16, with a +1 race bonus, for a score of 17) + a proficiency modifier of 2. So, uh, yeah. That should be a DC of 13 on Web.

Read it again. If they wield an implement they can add their spell casting bonus and spell casting stat for an easy 16-17 by level 5.

 

[Sage Genesis]

It's once per day, not every short rest.

I know. Which is why I said you had to account for 3 extra spell slots instead of 9.

Did I miss a packet after the 8/02/13 packet? I'm not seeing anything listed in the Fighter section for a Great Weapon feature.

You missed both the 9/19/13 packet and the 10/14/13 one (which was a relatively small update of the previous one). And looking back, the 8/02/13 packet is really rather out of date. Pretty much every class was completely overhauled.