Let's Spitball a Hypothetical Situation---WOTC Discontinues D&D--What Happens?
- Thread starter joethelawyer
- Start date
Well, for the record, they do:
Hasbro to Miss Estimates, Sells Interactive, Games.com Units TheStreet.com December 6, 2000 Wednesday
Copyright 2000 TheStreet.com, Inc.
TheStreet.com
December 6, 2000 Wednesday
SECTION: STOCK NEWS; Manufacturing
LENGTH: 275 words
HEADLINE: Hasbro to Miss Estimates, Sells Interactive, Games.com Units
BYLINE: By Ilan Tsapovski, Editorial Assistant
DATELINE: December 6, 2000 6:27 PM ET
BODY:
Hasbro (HAS:NYSE) expects earnings for the fourth quarter and full year to fall below analysts' expectations and set plans to sell its Hasbro Interactive and Games.com units.
and another:
Hasbro agrees to sell its make of miniature racing cars Providence Journal-Bulletin (Rhode Island) May 20, 2000, Saturday,
Copyright 2000 The Providence Journal Company
Providence Journal-Bulletin (Rhode Island)
May 20, 2000, Saturday, All EDITIONS
SECTION: BUSINESS, Pg. 10F
LENGTH: 261 words
HEADLINE: Hasbro agrees to sell its make of miniature racing cars
BYLINE: LISA BIANK FASIG; Journal Staff Writer
BODY:
Hasbro Inc. has agreed to sell off its Winner's Circle brand of miniature race cars to a Phoenix company, part of the toy maker's broader plan to focus on the core brands that bring the largest return on investment.
Every company sells assets when it would make them more money to do so.
Mercurius
Legend
First of all, who could afford to buy D&D? It would either be another large company, evening a game company (Milton Bradley?), or some bored multi-millionaire who used to play D&D when he was a kid and wants to save it. I just don't see any current RPG company being able to muster enough cash to make Hasbro a tempting offer.
But regardless, there would be a gap into which Paizo and others would feast mightily. Someone would figure out a way to basically create 4th edition products without calling them such, while Paizo would--if they played their cards right--cajole the large number of current fence-sitters who play 4ed because it is the current edition of D&D but don't love it.
There is a another alternative that comes to mind. If anyone is from Portland, OR, they might remember that about ten years ago there was a small natural foods chain called Nature's Fresh Northwest that sold itself to GNC with the understanding that GNC would offer financial backing but be hands off. A year later GNC sold Nature's to Wild Oats Markets and the old Nature's people left in disgust and started a new chain called New Seasons. New Seasons proceeded to build store by store and eventually drove the Portland Wild Oats stores out of business. This is the only time I can think of when a local company actually drove a major corporation out (of course Wild Oats was bought by their even larger competition, Whole Foods).
So this other alternative is that if Hasbro actually shelves D&D, you're going to have a lot of irate WotC D&D designers without jobs. What if they break away, put their heads together, and--perhaps with the backing of an already established game company--create a D&D-esque RPG that "out-D&Ds D&D"? (This is related to a thread I started a month or so ago pondering what kind of fantasy RPG could thrive and even compete with D&D).
But regardless, there would be a gap into which Paizo and others would feast mightily. Someone would figure out a way to basically create 4th edition products without calling them such, while Paizo would--if they played their cards right--cajole the large number of current fence-sitters who play 4ed because it is the current edition of D&D but don't love it.
There is a another alternative that comes to mind. If anyone is from Portland, OR, they might remember that about ten years ago there was a small natural foods chain called Nature's Fresh Northwest that sold itself to GNC with the understanding that GNC would offer financial backing but be hands off. A year later GNC sold Nature's to Wild Oats Markets and the old Nature's people left in disgust and started a new chain called New Seasons. New Seasons proceeded to build store by store and eventually drove the Portland Wild Oats stores out of business. This is the only time I can think of when a local company actually drove a major corporation out (of course Wild Oats was bought by their even larger competition, Whole Foods).
So this other alternative is that if Hasbro actually shelves D&D, you're going to have a lot of irate WotC D&D designers without jobs. What if they break away, put their heads together, and--perhaps with the backing of an already established game company--create a D&D-esque RPG that "out-D&Ds D&D"? (This is related to a thread I started a month or so ago pondering what kind of fantasy RPG could thrive and even compete with D&D).
Thunderfoot
Hero
Unfortunately Hasbro owns most of the 'name-brand' companies already, Milton Bradley, Avalon Hill, Plaskool and Parker Brothers were all bought out by Hasbro over the years. Currently they run a near monopoly in the games market.
Possibly, but frankly, I don't see it. Everyone is talking about Paizo this and Paizo that, but frankly, I haven't been impressed. Goodman Games and Mongoose have much better product and Green Ronin has a consistency that is second to none. Paizo is very quickly becoming just as heavy -handed as WotC/Hasbro (see other posts about their latest online mag) and is more a proof of success spoils the recipe.
Unfortunately this scenario, though a great alternative (especially to the more liberal thinkers) just cannot happen in this situation. Hasbro would force WotC to take corrective action against any company trying to get over on them. They have the money and the muscle to force a settlement or wait them into bankruptcy. (See DaGoom vs Hasbro) Even if they have no case.
I have said before that a more likely scenario would not be a wholesale shelving but more of a re-tool. They would lower production runs of the PnP game or convert it to a strictly electronic license for video game designers. The miniature product is more in-line with mainline games (ala Heroquest) and all of the Star Wars assets could be transfered to commercial investment by Hasbro proper. WotC would only live on as wholly-owned subsidiary (like Milton Bradley, Avalon Hill, etc) instead of an independently operating arm of said company for the sole purpose of distribution to niche markets, such as hobby stores. D&D gets forgotten about and R&D shuts down. This turns the hobby back into the stagnant sesspool that it was at the beginning of the 90s.
New releases come once or twice a quarter and no new source material emerges for many, many, many years. It becomes a sustainment industry with a prayer that the latest influx of gamers will sustain it until such time that proper focus can revive the game as a mainline title, maybe even under a more kid-friendly package - such as the 80s cartoon show and merchandise, which would bring it under direct control of Hasbro and out of the hands of the 'hobby industry' once and for all.
In the meantime all 3pp die a slow and agonizing death as they try to catch lightning in a bottle and fail miserably. GenCon, LLC, goes bankrupt and sells off controlling interest and GenCon moves back into a really big convention, but no longer the MECCA (pun intended) of gaming conventions. Also, D&D XP ceases to exist as a proving-ground/roll-out center for WotC and folds for good, leaving Origins as the only Nationally accessible gaming convention.
Of course, this is all conjecture, but hey, if you're going to go for broke.....
WayneLigon
Adventurer
I don't think Hasbro ever sells it off. They seem to like to sit on IP, and they can still sell the name to the MMO and use it for board games to make some cash off the name. I don't know that anyone is in a position to offer them enough for D&D. WoTC was kind of a lucky accident, with them freshly flush with Pokemon and M:TG money. I don't think anyone else is in that position or will be in the foreseable future unless they somehow stumble onto The Next Big Thing. So, no-one buys D&D away from them, barring some gamer winning the lottery.
Meanwhile, either Paizo becomes the de-facto publisher of 'D&D' or someone else comes up with a 'killer app' version based on the SRD that people flock to. I think Paizo has a very, very strong start in that area, and if they aggressively pursue the book trade they can replace 'D&D' in the mind of the casual D&D gamer, that large majority that we hear about that somehow never seeks out news about D&D on the net or never hears about edition changes or the like. Depending on what their contract with WoTC was, they then start to publish 'Path to Adventure' magazine that features Pathfinder adventures, 3E adventures, and such.
Nothing much changes for your dedicated gamers in large population centers or college towns/military towns where there is a large in-place gamer community that can renew itself all the time. If D&D vanishes, they'll either continue to play it, or create variants, or whatever.
By the time five years has passed, we're back to where we were in 1979 or so - gaming is a small time hobby and there are a very few stores that cater to it, usually as a small part of an overall board game/card game/mainstream hobby store. The internet keeps things alive, and internet stores make a good living off the remaining gamers for some time to come.
'D&D' is the home campaign, just like it was in 1979. The idea of an 'official' version of D&D has passed away, and house rules are the rule of the day again. It's no longer 'D&D" but 'Joe's Dungeon' or 'Michelle's World'.
Some other companies take over that niche with varying amounts of success. I think that a lot of gamers will turn to things that are fresh and new, in print and supported. So by the ten year mark, 'D&D' is becoming a memory, or, actually is just carried on by other games. Exalted or some variant 'midieval fantasy adventure' game by WW will probably grab a lot of people. Paizo is still going strong with Pathfinder 2.0 or 3.0 by that time. Steve Jackson Games might have struck while the iron was hot with a simplified version of GURPS that gathers up all of the 'system mastery' gamers. Or they might have abandoned pnp altogether; they practically have now.
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CountPopeula
First Post
My guess? Nothing, really. Goodman Games would go out of business, maybe a few other 3rd party publishers that only sell D&D supplements and have firmly hitched their wagon to WoTC (I can only assume the GSL will end if D&D goes under), but in the grand scheme of things, I don't see it having an impact on any companies like White Wolf, Paizo, or SJG.
Dungeons and Dragons is a pretty well known term. It's sort of to RPGs what Band-Aid is to bandages. But if Band-Aid fell off the face of the earth, I could still get Care-Band at walmart.
Let me give you another example. When I was young, around 4-5, the generic term for video games was "atari games." When I was 8 or 9, the generic term for video games was "Nintendo Games." When i was in high school.... you guessed it "Playstation Games."
Dungeons and Dragons doesn't do anything for the hobby as a whole. The brand doesn't need to exist, and if it went away, it wouldn't take the whole genre with it. When World of Warcraft goes offline, there will still be MMORPGs. And when D&D's last book runs off the press, there will still be an RPG industry. It might even be healthier without D&D, which has a negative connotation to the general public anyway.
Let me use the football example. I love football, but it's a drain on the entertainment industry. When football was on strike, all the money that was normally spent tickets and food and foam fingers and such at the games in the football cities went to other things, like video game arcades, restaurants, and so forth.
If D&D went out of existence, I think the money that's being spent on it would still be spent, just more of it would probably go to Paizo, Privateer Press, Steve Jackson Games, and probably some smaller companies would have an easier time selling their non-D20 games.
Dungeons and Dragons is a pretty well known term. It's sort of to RPGs what Band-Aid is to bandages. But if Band-Aid fell off the face of the earth, I could still get Care-Band at walmart.
Let me give you another example. When I was young, around 4-5, the generic term for video games was "atari games." When I was 8 or 9, the generic term for video games was "Nintendo Games." When i was in high school.... you guessed it "Playstation Games."
Dungeons and Dragons doesn't do anything for the hobby as a whole. The brand doesn't need to exist, and if it went away, it wouldn't take the whole genre with it. When World of Warcraft goes offline, there will still be MMORPGs. And when D&D's last book runs off the press, there will still be an RPG industry. It might even be healthier without D&D, which has a negative connotation to the general public anyway.
Let me use the football example. I love football, but it's a drain on the entertainment industry. When football was on strike, all the money that was normally spent tickets and food and foam fingers and such at the games in the football cities went to other things, like video game arcades, restaurants, and so forth.
If D&D went out of existence, I think the money that's being spent on it would still be spent, just more of it would probably go to Paizo, Privateer Press, Steve Jackson Games, and probably some smaller companies would have an easier time selling their non-D20 games.
Maggan
Writer for CY_BORG, Forbidden Lands and Dragonbane
That's a novel idea. Which game out there has a more positive connotation to the general public? Not Vampire, so what else is there that could step up?
Maybe a World of Warcraft branded RPG. But the one that exists hasn't taken the world by storm yet. GURPS? WFRP? WH40k ... eh, not likely with the imagery associated with that game.
Maybe a Lord of the Rings game, but then again, it didn't really fly last time someone tried it.
So what game is there that could be deemed having a positivt connotation to the general public? I'm not seeing it.
/M
CountPopeula
First Post
I never said there was one. My point there is that as far as the cultural zeitgeist is concerned, people who aren't still convinced D&D is satanic have labeled it as the favorite passtime of hopelessly nerdy 35 year old virgins who snort when they laugh.
I don't think the Dungeons and Dragons brand does anything to bring in new players, though.
I don't think any game will bring in new players unless it actively tries to reach them. But the term "role-playing game" doesn't have the nerdish, bottom-of-the-barrel, worst kind of loser connotation "Dungeons and Dragons" does in pop culture.
Are you actually aware what people think of the hobby? Honestly? Because to the world at large "Playing Dungeons and Dragons" is the literal opposite of the statement "Having a girlfriend." Have you ever seen a character on a TV show or movie say anything about playing Dungeons and Dragons that wasn't said in the context of "I've never had a girl even let me think about touching her, but that's okay, I have a level 7 elf wizard!"
Have you ever heard a TV show (other than that one episode of buffy) even mention Vampire: The Masquerade or any other RPG?
With video games, people think they can be nerdy, but are generally normal. Comic book properties can be really cool in they eyes of the general public, like Dark Knight. Even Star Wars is derided for having nerdy, obsessive fans, but the general public thinks they're pretty good movies, everyone's seen Star Wars.
D&D (and D&D specifically, not RPGs as a whole) is ALWAYS being portrayed as nerdy, loserish, something to be mocked, and the sort of activity a respectable person would never partake in. That's not good for the hobby. So I fail to see how D&D is so needed for the industry to grow.
Maggan
Writer for CY_BORG, Forbidden Lands and Dragonbane
Honestly? I think I know as much as anyone about what people think of the hobby. That's why I think it is interesting to read your take on it, that D&D doesn't do anything for the hobby, since that's contrary to what most other observers are saying.
And I was curios as to how you are reasoning when you say:
To me, for that to happen, D&D disappearing would have to equal growth of the hobby.
/M
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