Let's Spitball a Hypothetical Situation---WOTC Discontinues D&D--What Happens?

[CountPopeula]

To me, for that to happen, D&D disappearing would have to equal growth of the hobby.

I think it could. Monopolistic industry leaders can stunt the growth of an industry. When Atari imploded, it was the end of home video games. Until Nintendo came along and the market exploded. The market grew more under Nintendo's stewardship, then grew further under the guidance of Sony.

But the point is, as long as D&D accounts for more than 50% of the total industry market share, and the brand has gone from mysterious and "outlaw" satanism to become what you do because you can't get a date, ever... it could stunt the growth of the industry.

But I think if D&D were to disappear, any growth would have to be based on how aggressively the new market leader (White Wolf by default, but a third party could easily blow past them in a power vacuum with the right product and marketing strategy) can grow the market.

It may all be pointless speculation, but my only real point is that no industry is completely reliant one one brand to the point that the death of said brand will destroy the industry. If DC and Marvel both closed up shop tomorrow, we'd still have comic books. If Microsoft closed, we'd still have computers. If Ford and GM go under, we'll still have cars. If D&D is gone, we'll still have TRPGs.

 

[Maggan]

If D&D is gone, we'll still have TRPGs.

Absolutely. I'm writing this from a country where D&D is the fourth or fifth largest roleplaying game, after strong local brands. So I already live in a world where D&D isn't the biggest kid on the block.

That said, i don't think D&D being canceled would give any other company any greater chance to reign in the majority of those playing the game than they already have today.

Maybe WW. I'm not sure they'd be interested though. Commerically, RPGs isn't such a great market that there is a big incentive to agressively step up and try to grab the D&D players in a vaccum.

And I actually think that if anyone would grab the D&D players, it would be Blizzard.

/M

 

[Waldorf]

4e tanks?

No big surprise there.

Everyone would still have their 3.5 books.

Everyone would keep playing.

Ebay would keep people in books indefinitely.

 

[xechnao]

Some ideas.

Hasbro could offer 4e as public domain through an individual license provided by purchasing some periodical monthly magazine that would run for a year (ensuring that every copy of the magazine would sell each month along with advertising Hasbro products to thousands if not millions of people along with it)* or it would shelf it to reintroduce it some time in the future if there is an opportunity with minimum expenses to make a new edition that would sell like hot cakes.

*This could also buy time for a successful DDI service.

 

[am181d]

[with the preface that I don't believe that this will happen...]

If WotC shut down their RPG production tomorrow there would be:

1. a lot of ex-WotC folk looking for work
2. a lot of gamers looking for product
3. a lot of retailers looking to sell it to 'em

I don't think anyone could recreate D&D overnight, but Paizo certainly has a head start with Pathfinder, and if WotC veterans moved en masse to Paizo (or to Green Ronin or to some other publisher), it would add an heir of legitimacy to whatever company they "invaded."

Similarly, if a group of publishers formed as "New Fourth" coalition around Pathfinder or some new 3.5-driven OGL system, it would probably produce the critical mass to keep the industry going at roughly the current size.

(If 4th Edition fails, no one is going to waste time trying to recreate 4th edition. They're going to revert to what's worked before.)

Certainly, the loss of the D&D brand name would make it a *little* harder to attract new gamers. But let's be honest, whatever negative connotations D&D may have among the mainstream, it also helps to attract a steady stream of outcasts, geeks, and "the mainstream is for tools" fans.

The good news is that these demographics (i.e. "our people") are also early adapters, most willing to take a chance on something new and least likely to be swayed purely brand loyalty.

My assumption is that if D&D was shut down, within a year, we'd have 3-4 mid-sized "D&D Legacy" publishers working in concert, a slight uptick in sales to stalwart publishers/systems like White Wolf, Hero, and GURPS, and at least 1-2 new "Zeitgeist Games" (like "Rifts" which was huge when it was first released).

Overall sales might dip (which would hurt the retailers), but the other major publishers would likely benefit.

Of course, an equally fair question may be "What happens if 4e succeeds?"

 

[Lord Xtheth]

Honestly, If Hasbro even gets the slightest idea that Dungeons And Dragons is failing, they would set forth an initiative to "Re-vitalize" the game. Dungeons & Dragons is too big of a name to let go of.
We would see some cut-backs for sure. DDI would definately be put on hold, or sold to someone who has the ability to produce and run it PROPERLY, Dungeon Magazine and Dragon Magazine would be sold back to Paizo, who managed to do things right when they had it before.
We would see them produce suplements like

4th Edition conversion book- Retroactive conversions bringing 4E powers into 3.5

PHB 3 (yes 3): Power sources in your 3.x game

several kinds of "Officially supported" character sheets, allowing for any combination of 3.x style or 4e style of skills, defences, feats, etc.

A re-working of the GSL, that words their restrictions a little better, maybe opening up some OGL rights back to 3PPs allowing them more freedom when it comes to their products.

All in all, Hasbro would do everything within its power to save, and make money off of a big name like Wizards of the Coast and Dungeons & Dragons.

 

[Andor]

Honestly, If Hasbro even gets the slightest idea that Dungeons And Dragons is failing, they would set forth an initiative to "Re-vitalize" the game. Dungeons & Dragons is too big of a name to let go of.
We would see some cut-backs for sure. DDI would definately be put on hold, or sold to someone who has the ability to produce and run it PROPERLY, Dungeon Magazine and Dragon Magazine would be sold back to Paizo, who managed to do things right when they had it before.
We would see them produce suplements like

4th Edition conversion book- Retroactive conversions bringing 4E powers into 3.5

PHB 3 (yes 3): Power sources in your 3.x game

several kinds of "Officially supported" character sheets, allowing for any combination of 3.x style or 4e style of skills, defences, feats, etc.

A re-working of the GSL, that words their restrictions a little better, maybe opening up some OGL rights back to 3PPs allowing them more freedom when it comes to their products.

All in all, Hasbro would do everything within its power to save, and make money off of a big name like Wizards of the Coast and Dungeons & Dragons.

Hasbro didn't buy WotC for D&D. They bought it for Pokemon and Magic which are worth many, many times what D&D is. Basically Hasbro couldn't care less about D&D unless it became a major source of loss.

So it's all up to WotC which is a pretty independant division of Hasbro from what I understand.

That having been said if WotC drops D&D, I suspect it would be about the same as when D&D 2e was dying in the late '80s and early '90s. There would be several competeing game companies producing a wide variety of good to excellent games. Some would succeed and some would fail. We would again see companies along the lines of FASA and White Wolf with major RPG market shares producing new game lines some with traditional fantasy themes like Earthdawn and 5th Cycle and others with more modern or off-beat themes like Shadowrun or Dark Conspiracy or Unknown Armies.

D&D != The Hobby Industry. It isn't even the RPG industry. It's just the 800lb gorilla. It lost it's position once, and I'm sure it will do it again in the fullness of time. People will still be rolling dice and eating cheetos untill the sun turns red and swallows the earth.

 

[Amphimir Míriel]

First of all, who could afford to buy D&D? [snip!] some bored multi-millionaire who used to play D&D when he was a kid and wants to save it.

Lol, so in your opinion, D&D needs a Mark Shuttleworth kind of guy to save us from evil WotC-Hasbro?

-

Really, all this "4E tanks, Hasbro sells it or shelves it" speculation sounds like subtle edition bashing.

One more time, with feeling:

The 4th edition core rulebooks are selling just fine. Their digital offerings may be delayed, and may not be the cashcow they expected, but the print product is selling just fine.

No one spoke about Clue/Cluedo on the Hasbro conference call, but it would be far fetched to think that just because of that, they are going to shelve or sell that property.

 

[jsaving]

The 4th edition core rulebooks are selling just fine. Their digital offerings may be delayed, and may not be the cashcow they expected, but the print product is selling just fine.

Exactly.

It's also worth pointing out something regarding the third-party publishers and their general decision to shun the GSL. This is most emphatically NOT a sign that 4e is weak, as the OP and others are suggesting, nor does it provide evidence that (certain) third-party publishers were right to say their products/reputations would be strong enough to maintain a vibrant 3.x marketplace in the 4e era. Rather, it's a sign of 4e's strength, with the new edition doing so well that the 3.x marketplace has shriveled to almost nothing, inducing WotC to offer a one-sided GSL secure in the knowledge that its own profits are secure no matter what the third-party publishers do.

Amphimir's question about whether WotC overreached a bit in its desire to capture MMORPG-like monthly fees for an essentially static product is a reasonable issue to explore, with interesting implications for the 4e marketplace down the road. The hope on the part of some posters that Pathfinder can put a bit of competitive pressure on WotC could also lead to some interesting discussion about how said pressure might reshape the 4.x marketplace. But speculating about the near-term demise of 4e isn't a particularly productive endeavor, unless one simply enjoys wrestling with hypotheticals.

 

[Keefe the Thief]

What happens when Wotc discontinues D&D and another company & system take over the no. 1 position:

- [Company and system which hold no. 1 position] are compared to C&C and found to be lacking.
- [Company and system which hold no. 1 position] are compared to Paizo and found to be lacking.
- [Company and system which hold no. 1 position] spark a thread that asks: "Let's Spitball a Hypothetical Situation---[the company which produces the system which holds no. 1 position] is discontinued--What Happens?
NOT WHAT YOU WISH WOULD HAPPEN, but what does actually happen, based on real world economics, cause and effect, past experience in the industry, and your real world business experiences."