As a long-time Oscar observer and prognosticator (it's part of my job), I can tell you that it unlikely LOTR will win best picture, despite having the most nominations, and Russell Crowe is very, very unlikely to win best actor again this year after winning last year.
The Oscars run in trends. Yes, the movie with the most nominations has won 18 of the last 19 years -- or something close to that -- but there is another trend -- actually, more of a pattern -- that Oscar voters follow.
There are basically three types of movies that get nominated for best picture: Big sweeping epics (Braveheart, Gladiator); small, intimate character stories (Ordinary People, Terms of Endearment); and medium-sized movies, usually focusing on a few characters whose stories are set against a larger background (The English Patient, Titanic).
Usually, if one type of movie wins one year, that type of movie will not win the next. The Oscar voters don't like to repeat themselves. Since Gladiator won last year, LOTR probably won't win. It will win a lot of Oscars, but not best picture. The winner will either be In the Bedroom (small, intimate) or A Beautiful Mind (medium sized). Moulin Rogue won't win best picture because the film's director, Baz Luhrmann, wasn't nominated for best director. Usually, best director and best picture winners go hand-in-hand. If a film's director is not nominated for best director, it has very little chance of winning best picture.
Also, it's very rare for anyone in the acting categories to ever win back-to-back Oscars. Tom Hanks did it in the mid-90s, but that is an exception. Also, Hanks is well-liked in Hollywood and Crowe isn't.
The most likely winner for best actor is Denzel Washington. He's been nominated several times before, and won for best supporting actor back in 1989. He's also well-liked and well-respected in Hollywood. The Oscar are often a popularity contest, and the person with the best performance very rarely wins.
